Asking any football analyst which player might become the next Lamar Jackson is a bit silly, because nobody had ever statistically achieved what the Baltimore Ravens quarterback did in 2019. Sure, we knew the talented Jackson could make magic with his legs, and some believed he could throw well enough to test defenses -- but to have expected more than 1,200 rushing yards and 3,100 passing yards plus 36 touchdown passes? That would have been a tad preposterous. Nobody thinks he will duplicate these numbers in 2020, so how could anyone else do it?
Well, for folly purposes of predicting the next Jackson, I blurted out during our recent ESPN Fantasy Football Summit (which was virtual this season) that if anyone currently in the NFL seemed capable of reaching such statistical greatness with his arm and legs, it would be Philadelphia Eagles draft pick Jalen Hurts. I don't think the reaction was a positive one, much as when someone at a party says something wild and everyone else looks at that person, rolls their eyes and wonders if they have enough oxygen.
Then again, hear me out. We know what the versatile Hurts achieved in his lone season at Oklahoma, and it nearly earned him the Heisman Trophy. Hurts could not come close to matching LSU star Joe Burrow for passing yards and touchdowns, but his 1,298 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns (with strong passing stats) offer a far different dynamic. It is, one might say, Jackson-like. It hardly means that Hurts will be able to precisely translate his college numbers into the professional ranks, but we can be somewhat realistic in our optimism, too. There are similarities between Jackson and Hurts. The former simply needed an opportunity, so if the latter gets his chance, perhaps similar statistical greatness lurks.
The Eagles are committed to Carson Wentz, but not for as long as most people think. Wentz has completed just one pass in his postseason career, and nobody refers to the No. 2 pick in the 2016 NFL draft as durable. Wentz played like a fantasy star for much of the 2017 season, until he shredded his left knee that December and missed the organization's first Super Bowl victory. Since then, Wentz has been a rather ordinary fantasy option -- good enough to be a modest starter for our purposes but hardly a star. Perhaps Wentz will be a member of the Eagles for another decade, but reading the fine print on his contract (combined with the fact the Eagles chose Hurts in Round 2) suggests that is hardly a given.
In other words, I would not predict Hurts to have his own historic Lamar-like season right away in 2020. Then again, knowing how pretty much any starting quarterback is simply one play away from not playing, as dynasty-league handcuffs go, Hurts is one I wholeheartedly recommend for 2020 drafts. Get him now! Jackson was not an immediate starter in his rookie campaign. Unfortunately, Wentz has proved to be more likely than most at the QB spot to get hurt. Hurts, despite nary a bit of NFL experience, offers more upside than any other backup. Surely we must take this upside seriously. You draft skills, not roles. Hurts has the skills.
Additionally, what is upside, after all? Well, it is obviously different for Burrow and Hurts. Look no further than their ridiculous stats during their final season in college. Can you imagine 5,671 passing yards and 60 touchdown passes in the NFL? Peyton Manning once flirted with those numbers, so perhaps it can happen. Patrick Mahomes investors salivate at the possibilities. Then again, I think it is fair to say that what Hurts produced in his one Sooner season is more realistic at some point, since Jackson just did it!
Fantasy managers who were once conditioned to select only the pocket passers who piled on the passing yards and touchdowns, without any regard to rushing numbers, must evolve with the times, because things are a bit different now after what Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray showed us in 2019. We rank Arizona's Murray as a monster breakout option -- but not because he throws a nice spiral or that we expect 5,000 passing yards. He adds major value with his legs. Murray finished his rookie season 15th in passing yards and tied for 21st in passing touchdowns. However, he was still eighth at his position in fantasy points. Allen did less as a passer and scored more fantasy points. Legs matter. It's why I predicted Jackson to be an intriguing fantasy starter last summer, though I still sold him short. I should have gone all-in and ranked him better.
Most scoffed at the "frivolous" Eagles, a team seemingly in Super Bowl contention right now, for "wasting" a prime, second-round selection on a backup quarterback when so many potential starters at their need positions (wide receiver, offensive and defensive line, linebacker, the secondary) remained on the draft board at the time. Jackson could not lead his Ravens to the Super Bowl, but what a regular season that was. Fantasy managers might never forget it. A smart, well-run franchise -- albeit one without its franchise quarterback at the time -- spent a high draft pick to secure him and then tailored the offense to him. It worked. Can the Eagles not do this?
Well, of course they can, and I have come around to how smart it was to secure a multifaceted quarterback like this in today's NFL. Perhaps Wentz plays all 16 games in 2020 and plays like the MVP candidate we know he can be, but that could be somewhat a leap of faith at this point. The whiners in Philadelphia ask why it makes sense to waste a top-60 draft pick on a player you hope never has to play. Yet what if the Eagles are better off -- in 2022, at the earliest, one presumes -- with Hurts at the most important position in the sport? People should be considering this potential divergence of the organization's plans.
Hurts was a dynamic college player. That might mean little in the NFL until we see him do it, but what we have here is a player with Jackson's skills -- both the arm and the legs -- and a willing organization that can utilize them in the proper way. Nobody wants Wentz to get hurt again, or presumes he moves on to Jacksonville or some other club needing a quarterback in 2022 (when the Eagles can move on from the terms of his non-guaranteed contract with fewer financial ramifications), but this can happen. Hurts offers a unique skill set, but so did Jackson, and rushing yards from a quarterback sure do mean a lot in fantasy football.
I cannot rank Hurts as a fantasy starter, like I did last season with Jackson, because Wentz has the job. If that were to change, though, I'd be all-in. We all underrated Jackson and should learn a lesson from that mistake. Hurts is dynamic. Consider the possibilities!