Below, you will find 2021 fantasy football analysis and updated projections for the most notable NFL free-agent signings and trades throughout the early portion of the signing period.
For a full listing of all the latest moves, news and rumors, be sure to check out our 2021 NFL free-agency tracker.
WR Kenny Golladay to New York Giants
Golladay's arrival in the Big Apple -- though can we really call it that, being that the New York Giants play in a stadium through the tunnel and seven miles west from Manhattan? -- is great news for Daniel Jones and the offense as a whole, but not necessarily good in fantasy terms for the receiver himself.
Golladay's arrival brings the Giants something they have lacked since they traded Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns two years and one week ago: an upper-tier outside/"X" receiver. Darius Slayton, who is plenty talented in his own right, but not quite to similar levels, was the closest thing to fitting the description for the 2019-20 Giants, and in 30 games combined in those two seasons, he amassed only 301 more receiving yards (1,491-1,190) and the same number of receiving touchdowns (11) that Golladay did in his 16-game 2019 campaign.
Coupling this with the anticipated return of elite pass-catching running back Saquon Barkley, Jones has quite the upgraded group to throw to: Besides those two and Slayton, there's Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph, among the team's more prominent names. Barkley's healthy return from reconstructive knee surgery was already likely to provide a boost to Jones, who has averaged 17.9 fantasy points in 10 career starts (three of which were 28-plus) in which the running back was active, compared to 13.6 (and only one greater than 23) in his other 16 starts, but Golladay's addition only diversifies Jones' options, not to mention provides additional depth that wasn't present in 2020, should Barkley struggle to recapture full form immediately.
The upshot is probably not a level of fantasy enthusiasm surrounding Jones that we saw a year ago at this time, bordering on top-12 positional status, but one that might also not be that far from it. Jones remains a top-20 fantasy quarterback for 2021, perhaps now closer to the 15-16 range, where we'd typically see a Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield, but there is more appeal in terms of matchups, as the Giant go up against weaker defenses. There's a scenario in which Jones presents the perfect risk/reward partner for those taking a more mobile/riskier starter, say a Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts.
For Golladay, though, going from a pass-friendly Detroit Lions system to a Giants offense helmed by Jones represents a downgrade in fantasy terms. Golladay averaged 14.9 PPR fantasy points per game from 2019-20, 17th among wide receivers who played in at least 20 games, but he also did that while having Matthew Stafford, a more accurate thrower and certainly one more willing to make the deep throws, as his quarterback. Golladay amassed 63 of his 149 targets the past two seasons on vertical throws (targets at least 15 yards downfield), and without a bump in Jones' aggressiveness in that regard, Golladay's numbers could slip in 2021.
In short, Golladay will be hard-pressed in his quest to recapture the WR1 buzz he was growing in either of the past two offseasons, with a ranking closer to 20 than 10 a greater likelihood. He's certainly still a 1,000-yard receiver candidate -- assuming full health -- but it'd be smart to expect a more modest touchdown total (5-7). -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Golladay's early 2021 projection: 17 games, 132 targets, 76 receptions, 1,164 yards, 7 TDs
RB Kenyan Drake to Las Vegas Raiders
It's never fun when a transaction hurts the fantasy value of two players, but that's exactly what happened when the Raiders added Drake as a running mate for Josh Jacobs on Thursday. Drake was extremely busy as a rusher in 2020 with the Cardinals, ranking no lower than 12th among backs in snaps (594), carries (239), rushing yards (955) and touchdowns (10) despite missing 1.5 games. He was especially busy near the goal line, ranking second in the NFL in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (21) and third in total OTD (13.4). This is all notable because, well, his role is going to be different - and scaled back - in Las Vegas.
Jacobs is the clear lead for the Raiders. Playing a very similar role to Drake, the 2019 first-round pick ranked no lower than seventh in carries (273), rushing yards (1,065), touchdowns (12), OTD (12.6) and carries inside the 5-yard line (18) in 2020. Jacobs is a very effective rusher, but he's not much of a factor as a receiver (career 5.5 YPT on 73 targets).
Drake was limited to 31 targets in 2020 but totaled 139 the prior two seasons in Miami and Arizona. Though his receiving efficiency hasn't been good (career 5.5 YPT on 226 targets), Drake figures to return to a more prominent role in that department, with Jacobs handling most of the carries and goal-line work.
We'll see where their ADPs land, but especially when you also factor in the Raiders' major step backward along the offensive line, it's hard to love the 2021 fantasy prospects of Jacobs and Drake. Consider the former a mid-range RB2 and Drake a borderline flex (and very good handcuff) in 12-team PPR leagues.
Over in Arizona, Chase Edmonds is currently sitting pretty as the lead back and would be an RB2 if nothing were to change, but don't be surprised if the Cardinals sign someone like James Conner or draft an impact RB in April.
Josh Jacob's early 2021 projection: 15 games, 261 carries, 1069 yards, 9 TDs; 46 targets, 36 receptions, 278 yards, 1 TD
Kenyan Drake's early 2021 projection: 15 games, 113 carries, 486 yards, 4 TDs; 63 targets, 49 receptions, 362 yards, 2 TDs
WR Will Fuller V to Miami Dolphins
Miami found itself another impact wide receiver to work opposite DeVante Parker, signing Fuller to a one-year contract.
The 2016 first-round pick battled injuries during his first four NFL seasons, missing 19 games during that span. He was well on his way to a breakout 2020 campaign but was slapped with a six-game suspension prior to Week 13 (Fuller will still need to serve one game of that suspension in Week 1 of the 2021 season). Through Week 12, Fuller had posted a 53-879-8 receiving line on 77 targets and was fantasy's No. 8-scoring wide receiver. Fuller's 11.4 yards per target was best in the league, though having Deshaun Watson under center obviously helped.
Even with Parker and Mike Gesicki in the mix, the speedy Fuller won't be short on targets and should be in the vicinity of the 21-to-22% share he's averaged each of the past three seasons. That will be enough to keep him in the WR3 mix, and he could jump even higher if second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa makes a leap himself.
Will Fuller's early 2021 projection: 15 games, 108 targets, 70 receptions, 1,009 yards, 5 TDs
TE Jared Cook to Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers replaced Hunter Henry on Thursday, signing Cook to a one-year, $6 million contract.
Cook posted a pair of top-seven fantasy campaigns in 2018-19 before seeing a dip in efficiency that dropped him to 18th last season. Cook, who turns 34 in April, appeared to be showing his age when his snaps were reduced around midseason in 2020, but he rebounded down the stretch, including a 7-125-1 receiving line on nine targets during a pair of playoff games.
Cook figures to play roughly half the snaps in 2021, and his target share should fall close to the 13% he handled in 2019 and 2020. In a Justin Herbert-led offense that we expect will be productive, that's enough to put Cook in the TE2 mix for the time being. Of course, we'll need to keep an eye on the progress of intriguing 23-year-old backup Donald Parha Jr. as well.
Jared Cook's early 2021 projection: 16 games, 71 targets, 46 receptions, 584 yards, 5 TDs
WR A.J. Green to Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are hoping for a bounceback campaign from one of the best wide receivers of the past decade after signing 32-year-old Green to a one-year contract worth up to $8.5 million.
Green is coming off what was easily the worst season of his career, ranking 27th in routes and 26th in targets among wide receivers, but outside the top 60 in receptions, yardage and touchdowns. His 44% catch rate, 4.9 YPT and 1.8 RAC all ranked dead last, though 25% of balls thrown his way were off-target (seventh highest).
Green will step in opposite heavily targeted DeAndre Hopkins, which figures to push Christian Kirk to the slot in place of free agent Larry Fitzgerald. It's possible Green could explode back onto the fantasy radar, but it's hard to get too excited considering his age, last season's performance and his shaky durability (he's missed at least six games in three of the past five seasons).
His resume and starting gig in a good offense are enough to make him worth a late flier for your bench, but he'll need to prove he's rebounded before we can plug him into 2021 fantasy lineups.
A.J. Green's early 2021 projection: 16 games, 105 targets, 54 receptions, 681 yards, 5 TDs
WR Curtis Samuel to Washington Football Team
Washington entered the offseason looking for a running mate for Terry McLaurin. That mission was accomplished on Wednesday, as they signed Samuel to a three-year, $34.5 million contract.
Samuel reunites with HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner, who coached him during his first three seasons with the Panthers. Samuel progressively improved from 126th to 49th to 36th among wide receivers in fantasy points during that span, but hhe had his best campaign (25th) in 2020. Samuel posted a 76-848-3 receiving line and added 41-200-2 on the ground. Interestingly, Samuel actually saw his routes, targets and touchdowns dip last season, but a huge increase in efficiency and rushing usage led to the big fantasy campaign. In fact, believe it or not, Samuel finished with just 13 fewer fantasy points than McLaurin.
In Washington, Samuel will be the clear No. 2 wide receiver behind McLaurin, though TE Logan Thomas will also be heavily involved in the passing game. Samuel has handled target shares of 18% and 19% over the past two seasons, and that's likely where he'll be in 2021 in addition to a dozen or so carries. With plenty of touches and gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Samuel is well-positioned for another WR3 campaign.
Curtis Samuel's early 2021 projection: 17 games, 117 targets, 81 receptions, 956 yards, 4 TDs, 21 carries, 130 yards, 1 TD
WR John Brown to Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders found their replacement for Nelson Agholor by signing the speedy Brown to a one-year deal.
The soon-to-be 31-year-old was a fantasy star as recently as 2019. He posted a 72-1,060-6 receiving line and was WR15 in fantasy prior to resting in Week 17. He struggled with injuries last season in Buffalo and was WR35 during nine active weeks (33-458-3).
At least for now, Brown is positioned atop Las Vegas' WR depth chart, with Henry Ruggs III, Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards also in the mix. Barring another impact addition, Brown could be as high as second in terms of target priority behind only Darren Waller.
Derek Carr is underrated, but the Raiders don't prioritize their wide receivers (46% target share last season), so consider Brown a borderline flex option in 12-team leagues for the time being.
John Brown's early 2021 projection: 17 games, 96 targets, 56 receptions, 765 yards, 6 TDs
WR Marvin Jones Jr. to Jacksonville Jaguars
Looking to add weapons for likely first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars signed Jones to a two-year, $14.5 million contract.
The 31-year-old joins DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. and solidifies the team's all-important starting trio at wideout. Jones ranked third in routes and 18th in fantasy points as Detroit's No. 1 WR during most of 2020 but is sure to play a lesser role with Chark and Shenault in the fold in Jacksonville.
Where Jones has shined is near the goal line, as he's scored nine or more touchdowns in four seasons since 2013, including exactly nine in three of his past four campaigns. He's finished no lower than 20th in end zone targets and no lower than 25th in aDOT among WRs during that span. Jones has averaged a target share in the 18-to-20% range each of the past five seasons, and we should expect him to be on the lower end of that range in 2021.
With Lawrence likely to experience growing pains out of the gate, Jones is best-valued as a borderline flex option in 12-team leagues.
Marvin Jones' early 2021 projection: 17 games, 104 targets, 65 receptions, 884 yards, 5 TDs
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to Washington Football Team
Washington has found itself a veteran bridge quarterback after signing Fitzpatrick to a one-year, $10 million contract.
The 38-year-old hasn't played a 16-game season since 2015, having spent the majority of the past five season as an oft-used backup. Of course, Fitzpatrick played some of the best ball of his career during that span. In 2018, he played five full games and was fantasy's No. 3-scoring QB those weeks. In 2019, he played the majority of the snaps in 12 games and was, once again, the No. 3-scoring fantasy QB. Last season, he was QB6 during seven full games while holding down the fort for Tua Tagovailoa.
At least prior to last season, Fitzpatrick lived on taking chances, ranking in the 75th percentile or higher in aDOT in five-consecutive seasons. That led to a lot of interceptions (68 in 68 games since 2015, but also plenty of big plays, touchdowns (110) and, of course, fantasy points.
In Washington, Fitzpatrick will be the projected starter ahead of 28-year-old Taylor Heinicke and 25-year-old Kyle Allen. He'll lead an offense that sports an underrated offensive line and top weapons Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson (Washington is still likely to add an impact WR this offseason).
Last season, Washington operated a slightly pass-first offense that leaned on the run near the goal line in Scott Turner's first year calling the plays for the team. We should anticipate something similar in 2021, as Washington leans on its standout defense to try and maximize its win total.
Fitzpatrick's aggressive nature and ability to add a few points with his legs is enough to make him a weekly streaming option, but his history suggests we may see Heinecke, Allen or perhaps a rookie QB under center at times this season. Consider Fitzpatrick a QB2.
Ryan Fitzpatrick's' early 2021 projection: 92% of Washington's drop-backs, 387-of-583, 4,344 yards, 20 TDs, 16 INTs, 62 carries, 296 yards, 3 TDs
TE Hunter Henry to New England Patriots
The Patriots have now signed both of the top two tight ends on the market, adding Henry on a three-year, $37.5 million deal ($25 million guaranteed) Tuesday. This comes one day after they signed Jonnu Smith to a four-year, $50 million contract ($31.25 million guaranteed).
The money is fairly even on an annual basis, so we can't learn much there in terms of who of the two will be the better fantasy option. As noted in Smith's write-up below, he has never exceeded a 15% target share or finished a season as a top-15 fantasy TE. Henry, on the other hand, has posted three top-14 fantasy campaigns (top 11 in fantasy PPG all three seasons) despite having yet to play a full 16-game season. The latter is notable, as Henry's durability is problematic. He missed all of 2018 and at least one game in his four other seasons. In 2020, Henry held up for 14 games and posted a 60-613-4 receiving line on 90 targets (eighth most among TEs).
Smith is more athletic and figures to move all over the formation, handling screens and short-area targets to maximize his special RAC ability, as well as the occasional carry. Henry figures to get more work as an in-line TE, though he had his hand in the dirt on only 33.8% of his 1,357 routes with the Chargers (Smith's rate was 54.2% on 939 routes). The Patriots had two or more TEs on the field for an NFL-low 3% of offensive plays in 2020. Expect them to be among the league leaders in 2021.
The Patriots' offensive-free-agent bonanza has included the signings of WRs Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne [see below], as well as Henry and Smith, which suggests we'll see a lot more passing in 2021. However, this is still a Cam Newton-led offense that will run the ball at an above-average rate, especially at the goal line.
It's going to be hard for Smith and Henry to each provide TE1 numbers -- and perhaps neither will. Consider that since 2009, there have been only two instances in which two tight ends from the same team finished among the top-10 fantasy TEs: Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski (2011) and Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert (2019). If we look at the highest-scoring No. 2 tight ends during each of the past 12 seasons, the average finish is 18th. Perhaps one will emerge as a consistent back-end TE1, but both Smith and Henry are best valued as TE2 options.
Hunter Henry's early 2021 projection: 16 games, 74 targets, 50 receptions, 546 yards, 3 TDs
Jonnu Smith's early 2021 projection: 16 games, 79 targets, 54 receptions, 549 yards, 4 TDs
WR Corey Davis to New York Jets
The Jets improved their wide receiver room by agreeing to sign Davis to a three-year, $37.5 million contact.
The 2017 fifth-overall pick was a free agent after the Titans declined to pick up his fifth-year option. Davis underwhelmed during his first three seasons in the pros despite heavy usage but seemed to come into his own in 2020 with a 65-984-5 receiving line on 94 targets. It was easily his most efficient season, as he caught 71% of his targets despite a 12.2 aDOT. That helped him to 10.7 yards per target, which was seventh best among wide receivers, and 2.7 yards per route run (fourth best).
In New York, Davis joins 2020 second-round pick Denzel Mims on the perimeter, with Jamison Crowder locked into the slot. Davis will undoubtedly play an every-down role in what will likely be a run-first offense under new OC Mike LaFleur. Though playing time and a decent target share (19-21% range) won't be an issue, offensive efficiency may be, with the Jets still unsettled at quarterback and along the offensive line.
Davis failed to finish a season as a top-25 fantasy WR during his time with the Titans, and the 26-year-old now heads to a worse offense. At least in the short term, he's best viewed as a flex option, though there's room for more if Sam Darnold makes a big leap or the Jets hit the lottery with someone like Zach Wilson on draft day.
Corey Davis' early 2021 projection: 17 games, 106 targets, 67 receptions, 916 yards, 5 TDs
WRs Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to New England Patriots
Agholor is headed back east after reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $26 million deal with New England. Bourne will do the same after signing on for $22.5 million over three years.
Following an up-and-down five-year tenure in Philadelphia, Agholor put together a strong 48-896-8 receiving line on 81 targets in Las Vegas last season. He struggled with drops (seven) but was heavily targeted down field (15.4 aDOT was third highest among wide receivers) and answered the bell with plenty of explosive plays (his 18.7 YPR ranked second). Agholor is entering his seventh NFL season at age 28 and has yet to post a top-20 fantasy season (he's finished better than 34th once: 2017).
Bourne spent his first four seasons in San Francisco and failed to finish a season better than 60th in fantasy points (2020). Fueled by a roster overloaded with injuries, 25-year-old Bourne was forced into a career-high 74 targets last season. He posted a 49-667-2 receiving line and now has nine scores in 58 career games.
The Patriots' wide receiver situation is so wide open that both Agholor and Bourne could soak up significant snaps in 2021. If healthy, 35-year-old Julian Edelman will be the main target for Cam Newton, but that's hardly a lock. Jakobi Meyers, who averaged a 25% target share in 2020, is also back, former first-round pick N'Keal Harry remains on the roster for now, and the team will also be signing TE Jonnu Smith (see below). Expect a target share in the 17-19 range for Agholor (he's never been above 18%) and one about half that for Bourne for now (he's never finished a season above 13%). The Patriots will surely throw the ball more than they did in 2020, but this will still be a run-first unit that leans heavily on Newton near the goal line.
Agholor is, at best, a borderline flex in 12-team leagues, whereas Bourne is unlikely to find his way to consistent fantasy value.
Nelson Agholor's early 2021 projection: 17 games, 86 targets, 51 receptions, 772 yards, 4 TDs
Kendrick Bourne's early 2021 projection: 17 games, 46 targets, 29 receptions, 368 yards, 2 TDs
TE Jonnu Smith to New England Patriots
Per Adam Schefter, the Patriots will sign former Titans' TE Smith to a four-year, $50 million contract.
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Where Smith really excels is using his athleticism to make plays with the ball in his hands. Granted, he was near the basement of the position in aDOT all three seasons, but he ranked second at tight end in RAC in both 2018 and 2019 before finishing seventh in 2020.
New England hasn't used the tight end much in the post-Gronk era, but we know coach Bill Belichick and OC Josh McDaniels will adjust based on personnel. The Patriots are very needy at wide receiver, so there's still a lot to learn about Smith's standing in terms of target share, but something in the 14-16% range (with room for more) seems attainable.
The big concern for Smith's fantasy stock is a Patriots' offense that was run-heaviest in the league and tied for dead last with 12 pass TDs in 2020. Cam Newton is back, so we should expect another run-heavy offense (albeit not to the extreme we saw last season) and a lot of Newton-vultured touchdowns at the goal line. That will certainly limit Smith's target volume and touchdown opportunities, giving him the look of a fringe TE1 with limited upside.
Jonnu Smith's early 2021 projection: 16 games, 79 targets, 54 receptions, 549 yards, 4 TDs