Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: NFL Week 16 tips on start, sit, stream and more

Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns

"He has played some of the best football of his career of late, his 98.9 fantasy points third-most among quarterbacks in the past four weeks, driven by a 70.2 completion percentage that is considerably better than his 62.2% career rate," Cockcroft details in his Matchup Map writeup. "Mayfield continues to get good protection from his offensive line, his 3.1 seconds before throws the most among qualified quarterbacks, and he's going with more of a short-to-intermediate game plan, relying on slot receiver Jarvis Landry in recent weeks. The Jets have been getting beaten up by opposing quarterbacks all year, but especially since October, surrendering a 20-point game to six of the past 10 starters they've faced. Don't read too much into the Jets' Week 15 upset of Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams. This is a plum matchup, and Mayfield is a locked-in top-10 option."

Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney, WRs, Chicago Bears

"Another week, another great matchup for Chicago's wide receivers during the fantasy playoffs," Clay writes in his Shadow Report on the best and worst WR/CB matchups of Week 16. "This week, the Bears will face a struggling and injury-plagued Jaguars' defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (fifth most over the past eight weeks) and the ninth most to the perimeter (second most over the past eight weeks). Jacksonville has been OK against the slot lately, with Tre Herndon providing serviceable play, so Anthony Miller doesn't stand to benefit too much. However, the Jaguars are down to Sidney Jones (if he returns from injury), seventh-round rookie Chris Claybrooks and journeyman Greg Mabin on the perimeter. That is where Robinson (71%) and Mooney (82%) primarily align and positions both as Week 16 upgrades."

Playing the matchups

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

"We heard for months about all the reasons the Eagles shouldn't start Hurts and all it took was two games for him to completely disprove all those poorly created narratives about his ability," Zeidenfeld writes in his DFS Best Buys. "Is he flawed as a thrower? Sure, to some extent, but all we care about is fantasy points and in that regard he's a monster. Dallas allows a touchdown on 31.4% of drives (third most in the league) and a touchdown pass on a league high 6.9% of pass attempts, so Hurts could see a nice bump in his efficiency this week."

Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins

"Gaskin returned to practice on Wednesday, as good an indicator as any that he'll be activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list in time to play on Saturday," Cockcroft writes. "While Salvon Ahmed is coming off a best-by-a-Dolphins-running-back 21.7 PPR fantasy points, Gaskin still seems likely to return as the team's starter rather than a backup or change-of-pace back, given that Gaskin has previously returned from knee and shoulder injuries to greater than 70% snap shares and at least 13.3 PPR fantasy points in each of his two return-to-action games. Even if the two share the workload, the matchup itself is favorable enough to support each of their candidacies as fantasy starters. The Raiders boast the best matchup for running backs in the chart below and are the third-best using full-season data (4.7 adjusted fantasy points added), and they have been getting slaughtered on the ground recently, with league-leading 116.8 fantasy points and 0.89 points per carry allowed to the position in the past five weeks. Four of the Raiders' past nine opponents had multiple running backs score 10-plus PPR fantasy points, which bodes well for Gaskin and Ahmed if the Dolphins go the committee route."

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

"Chubb gets the matchup against the Jets in Week 16, and while from a defense vs. position perspective the Jets haven't been torched by running backs, they haven't played a team like the Browns, who are content on establishing the run at every possible turn," Zeidenfeld writes. "This season, 40.7% of Cleveland's yards have come on the ground, third highest in the league but only trailing Baltimore and New England, who get a large chunk of rushing yardage from the quarterbacks."

Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin, WRs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

"The Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the second most over the past month," Clay writes. "They've allowed the second-most points to the perimeter this season and fifth most over the past month. Detroit has also allowed the eighth-most points to the slot over the past month. Five of the past six wide receiver units the Lions have faced put up 48-plus fantasy points, and the exception was a Titans group that still scored a pair of touchdowns on only 13 targets. If it isn't obvious, the Lions absolutely cannot slow down wide receivers, and this week they will face off with arguably the league's best trio at the position. Evans (62% perimeter) and Brown (84%) will work the outside against Amani Oruwariye and Daryl Roberts (or, if he remains out, 2019 UDFA Alex Myres), with Godwin (68% slot) inside against Justin Coleman. All three receivers should be upgraded and are viable fantasy starters."

Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Detroit Lions

"Since Week 8, the last game in which Kenny Golladay played, Jones is WR6 in total fantasy points and WR12 on a per-game basis," Berry points out. "This should be a high-scoring game and the expectation here is that the Lions will have to throw a lot to keep up with all the points Tom Brady puts on them. That means even more looks for Jones, who has had 44 targets over his past four games. Is 11 a game a lot? It seems like a lot. Very quietly Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past four weeks, and all that means Jones is a top-15 play for me this week."

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team

"You can't get Travis Kelce or Darren Waller if you don't already have them, unfortunately," Berry writes. "But Thomas is still available in over 30% of ESPN leagues and is actually TE5 on the season thanks to double-digit fantasy points in four straight games, including two games with 20-plus. Thomas' run of production should continue this week against the Panthers, who have allowed the fifth-most receptions to tight ends this season."

Injury impact

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: Stafford (rib/right thumb) was limited at Wednesday's practice. He is questionable against the Buccaneers.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants: Jones (ankle/hamstring) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice and is questionable against Baltimore.

Alex Smith, Washington Football Team: Smith (calf) was limited in practice and is Questionable and will be a game-time decison for Sunday's game against Carolina. Dwayne Haskins has been taking first-team reps.

Running backs

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers: Coach Matt Rhule said McCaffrey (thigh) looks "doubtful" to return for Sunday's game at Washington.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said Elliott (calf) will have a limited practice on Thursday. Elliott is questionable against the Eagles.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone said he plans to rest Robinson (ankle) in practice this week, but the running back still expects to suit up Sunday against the Bears.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs: Edwards-Helaire (ankle/hip) didn't practice Wednesday and is doubtful for the Falcons.

Wide receivers

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs: Jones (hamstring) didn't practice Wednesday and is questionable against the Falcons.

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons: Jones (hamstring) didn't practice Wednesday and is a game-time decision against the Chiefs.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans: Brown (ankle) was listed as limited at Wednesday's practice and is questionable against Green Bay.

Tight ends

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers: Ebron (back) did not practice Wednesday and is questionable against Indianapolis.

Lottery tickets

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

"With Ezekiel Elliott as a late scratch for the Cowboys in Week 15, Pollard had a chance to show what he's capable of," Yates explains in his write-up of his top waiver-wire pickups of the week. "He handled 12 carries for 69 yards and added two touchdowns, while catching six passes for 63 yards on nine targets. Not bad. It's way too soon to tell whether Elliott will be ready to go this week, but there's little doubt that Pollard carries plenty of value in the event Zeke does sit."

Ito Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons

"The Falcons announced Monday what fantasy managers have been crying from the rooftops for weeks now: Todd Gurley II ain't it," Soppe writes. "Let me be clear ... my expectations for Smith are awfully limited. But good luck finding any sort of volume on the wire at this point in the season, and given that Smith (11.3 touches per game over his past four) now has officially been given the title of lead back, he offers enough of a touch floor to justify rostering, even if it's just to sap the running back depth for your opponents."

Rashard Higgins, WR, Cleveland Browns

"Higgins has consumed 22.4% of the Browns' total targets since Week 13 -- a rate just shy of teammate Jarvis Landry's -- and has benefited greatly from both an uptick in usage and the rise of Mayfield," McCormick writes. "Averaging a healthy 13.3 air yards per target during this stretch has fueled 14.9 yards per reception. With Mayfield peaking, Higgins is positioned to provide another solid fantasy result in a matchup with a Jets defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers."

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, New Orleans Saints

"The Saints will be without Michael Thomas for the final two games of the regular season, with Sanders counted on to play an even larger role in his absence," Yates writes. "In five games without Thomas on the field, Sanders is averaging double-digit fantasy points, including a 11.6-point outing in Week 15. Sanders should stay busy down the stretch for New Orleans."

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

"The Eagles have been a mess in the defensive backfield and no team allows more goal-to-go drives per game than Philadelphia," Zeidenfeld writes. "Lamb will certainly have opportunities this week, more even if Gallup can't get back to 100% by the time the game kicks off. Lamb has six or more targets in five of his last six games and has caught all three of his deep targets the past two weeks. Solid floor of targets and massive big splash ability for a cheaper price than it should be? Sign me up."

Jordan Akins, TE, Houston Texans

"Given the lack of production after the top two tiers at the position, any tight end getting work is worth a look, and Akins checks that box, as he is one of just six tight ends with at least six targets in each of the past two weeks," Soppe writes. "The Bengals are not only on a short week with no motivation, but they are a bottom-five defense in terms of opponent end zone completion percentage. Since the TE position is effectively chasing a touchdown anyway, why not target a bad defense and a player at least getting chances to produce? The floor is low here, but I'd argue it's not that much lower than anyone ranked outside the top six at the position this week."

Big question of the week

Is Tyler Lockett worth starting against the Los Angeles Rams?

"Lockett was limited to 34 yards on seven targets against Washington on Sunday," Clay writes in his fantasy intel, snap count data for all 32 teams ahead of Week 16. "Lockett has now been held below 68 yards in eight consecutive games. Incredibly, he has one touchdown and one top-30 fantasy week (two top-40) during the span. The good news is that Lockett has seen seven of more targets in five of his past seven games, but it simply hasn't led to much fantasy production in Seattle's slumping offense. Lockett's every-down role keeps him in the WR3/flex discussion, but another dud is very much on the table against an elite Rams pass defense in Week 16."