By using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play of an NFL game. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best waiver-wire pickups.
Below are the wideouts with the best and worst Week 16 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.
To view the primary defenders whom the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out
Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.
Advantageous matchups
Chargers' Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton vs. Broncos' Michael Ojemudia, De'Vante Bausby and Will Parks
Things have not gone well for Denver's injury-plagued secondary in recent weeks. With Bryce Callahan, A.J. Bouye, Essang Bassey, Duke Dawson and Kevin Toliver out for the season, third-round rookie Ojemudia and journeyman Bausby have been handling perimeter corner duties with recent waiver claim Parks in the slot. Denver surrendered 43 fantasy points to the DJ Moore-less Panthers' wide receiver room in Week 14 before being slammed for 307 yards and 58 fantasy points against Buffalo in Week 15. Allen and Williams were limited to situational duties last week, but considering that they played in the game and will be on 10 days' rest, we should expect a return to normalcy this week. They'll obviously benefit from a great matchup, with Williams (74% perimeter) and fellow outside receiver Guyton (65%) set to run most of their routes against Ojemudia and Bausby. Allen aligns inside 53% of the time and will see Parks most often. Both Allen (9-67-1) and Williams (5-99-1) delivered big games when these teams met in Week 8. Upgrade this group across the board.
Browns' Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones vs. Jets' Bless Austin, Bryce Hall and Javelin Guidry
The Jets upset the Rams in Week 15, but one game does not overshadow a season full of major struggles against wide receivers. New York has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the second most over the past two months. They've allowed the 11th most to the perimeter this season but have been especially bad against the slot, allowing the most fantasy points this season over the past two months and over the past month. That bodes especially well for Landry, who aligns inside 54% of the time. He'll see a ton of undrafted rookie Guidry this week and can be upgraded. Higgins (81% perimeter) and Peoples-Jones (66%) will work against 2019 sixth-round pick Austin and fifth-round rookie Hall on the outside and can be upgraded, with Higgins the more appealing flex.
Buccaneers' Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin vs. Lions' Amani Oruwariye, Darryl Roberts and Justin Coleman
The Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the second most over the past month. They've allowed the second-most points to the perimeter this season and fifth most over the past month. Detroit has also allowed the eighth-most points to the slot over the past month. Five of the past six wide receiver units the Lions have faced put up 48-plus fantasy points and the exception was a Titans' group that still scored a pair of touchdowns on only 13 targets. If it isn't obvious, the Lions absolutely cannot slow down wide receivers and this week they will face off with arguably the league's best trio at the position. Evans (62% perimeter) and Brown (84%) will work the outside against Oruwariye and Roberts (or, if he remains out, 2019 UDFA Alex Myres), with Godwin (68% slot) inside against Coleman. All three receivers should be upgraded and are viable fantasy starters.
Bears' Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney vs. Jaguars' Sidney Jones and Chris Claybrooks
Another week, another great matchup for Chicago's wide receivers during the fantasy playoffs. This week, the Bears will face a struggling and injury-plagued Jaguars' defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (fifth most over the past eight weeks) and the ninth most to the perimeter (second most over the past eight weeks). Jacksonville has been OK against the slot lately, with Tre Herndon providing serviceable play, so Anthony Miller doesn't stand to benefit too much. However, the Jaguars are down to Jones (if he returns from injury), seventh-round rookie Claybrooks, and journeyman Greg Mabin on the perimeter. That is where Robinson (71%) and Mooney (82%) primarily align and positions both as Week 16 upgrades.
Other notable upgrades:
Chiefs' Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell, Darqueze Dennard and Isaiah Oliver
Cowboys' Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb vs. Eagles' Darius Slay, Michael Jacquet and Nickell Robey-Coleman
Bengals' Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and A.J. Green vs. Texans' Vernon Hargreaves III, Phillip Gaines and Eric Murray
Lions' Marvin Jones Jr., Mohamed Sanu Sr. and Danny Amendola vs. Buccaneers' Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean
Saints' Emmanuel Sanders vs. Vikings' Cameron Dantzler, Chris Jones and Jeff Gladney
Tough matchups
Seahawks' DK Metcalf vs. Rams' Jalen Ramsey (shadow) Seahawks' Tyler Lockett and David Moore vs. Rams' Darious Williams and Troy Hill
These teams met in Week 10 and the Rams chose to shadow Metcalf with Ramsey in that game. Ramsey was the primary defender on 29 of Metcalf's 42 routes and held him to 9 yards on three targets on those plays. Metcalf ended up with 28 yards on four targets in the game. Lockett, meanwhile, ran a route against 10 different defenders and ended up with a 5-66-0 receiving line on nine targets. In total, Russell Wilson was limited to 248 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions against the Rams' elite pass defense. Speaking of which, Los Angeles has allowed the fewest fantasy points, receiving yards, end zone targets (12) and touchdowns (seven), as well as the lowest yards per target (7.0) and yards per reception (10.5) to the position this season. The Rams have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to the perimeter, where is generally where Metcalf (84%) and Moore (74%) align. Metcalf had moderate success against Ramsey last season, so there's hope for a bounceback game, but he still needs to be downgraded along with the rest of Seattle's pass-catchers against the Rams' shutdown pass defense.
Falcons' Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage vs. Chiefs' Bashaud Breeland, Charvarius Ward and L'Jarius Sneed
The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points, receptions and receiving yards to wide receivers this season. They're allowing 7.3 yards per target and 59% catch rate to the position, both of which are top-three in the league. Kansas City has also allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers, which is concerning news for both Jones (76% perimeter) and Ridley (88%). Both are must-starts, but lower expectations a bit. The Chiefs have been exploited a bit in the slot, however, with the rookie Sneed targeted on a hefty 25% of his 146 coverage snaps this season. That has led to Kansas City allowing the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers over the past month. Gage (69%) won't be a lineup lock if Jones returns from injury, but this suggests he's a PPR sleeper.
Texans' Brandin Cooks vs. Bengals' William Jackson III (shadow)
Pro Bowl snub Jackson has been one of league's most effective corners this season and has shadowed against most No. 1 perimeter receivers that the Bengals have faced. That has included matchups with DeSean Jackson (2-11-0 receiving line in the game), T.Y. Hilton (1-11-0), A.J. Brown (4-24-1), Terry McLaurin (5-84-0), Darius Slayton (0-0-0) and DeVante Parker (4-35-0). Those assignments suggest he'll be tasked with shadowing Houston's clear No. 1 WR Cooks in Week 16. Jackson has been targeted on 15% of his coverage snaps and is allowing 0.22 fantasy points per route, both of which are terrific. Cooks needs to be downgraded, whereas Chad Hansen will benefit from a matchup with Darius Phillips on the other side of the field.
Ravens' Marquise Brown vs. Giants' James Bradberry (shadow)
Bradberry was sidelined in Week 15 but is expected back this weekend. The star shadow corner has traveled in 10 games this season, including matchups with Allen Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, A.J. Green, DK Metcalf and DeAndre Hopkins. Bradberry generally only shadows when his assigned receiver aligns outside, so we should expect to see him up against Baltimore top wideout Brown (75% perimeter) quite often in Week 16. Brown has been hot as of late, but he'll have his hands full against Bradberry and a Giants' defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers over the past month. He'll be a risky flex play with fantasy titles on the line.
49ers' Brandon Aiyuk vs. Cardinals' Patrick Peterson (shadow)
Peterson hasn't shadowed in over a month, but that's not really surprising considering Arizona hasn't played a team with a clear-cut No. 1 perimeter receiver during the span. Earlier his season, he shadowed against receivers who fit that bill, including Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf (twice), DeVante Parker and Stefon Diggs. This week, it makes sense that he would be utilized that way to try and slow red-hot and heavily-targeted Aiyuk. Peterson might be past his peak, but he has been solid in Arizona's man-heavy scheme and quarterbacks have tended to shy away from throwing in his direction (he has been targeted on 16% of his coverage snaps). Arizona has been up-and-down against wide receivers this season, but better as of late, allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points overall and to the perimeter over the past month. Aiyuk's heavy usage suggests he's an impossible player to bench, but perhaps lower expectations slightly.
Bills' Stefon Diggs vs. Patriots J.C. Jackson (shadow) Bills' John Brown/Gabriel Davis vs. Jason McCourty (shadow) Bills' Cole Beasley vs. Jonathan Jones
Patriots' standout corner Stephon Gilmore went down with an injury on Sunday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, which is notable considering he was also out when these teams met back in Week 8. In that game, Jackson shadowed Diggs, McCourty traveled with Brown and Jones was primarily on Beasley in the slot. Diggs still came away with a serviceable stat line (6-92-0 on nine targets) despite running only 18 routes. Beasley posted a 2-24-0 line on 15 routes and Brown caught one pass for 21 yards on 18 routes. It was obviously a very low-volume passing game for Buffalo, but this is still a relatively tough matchup against a Patriots' defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers over the past eight weeks (third-fewest for the season), the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers over the past month (third-fewest for the season) and the third-fewest fantasy points to the slot over the past month. There's no need for major adjustments - Diggs is obviously a must-start in all formats - but perhaps try to pivot away from Beasley and Brown (or Davis if Brown remains out).
Other notable downgrades:
Vikings' Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins
Raiders' Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholor vs. Dolphins' Xavien Howard and Byron Jones
Other possible shadow situations:
It's not often that this column calls for a downgrade due to a shadow situation and ends up missing completely, but that was the case in Week 15's Marvin Jones vs. Malcolm Butler showdown. Butler did travel with Jones, as predicted, but Jones torched the Titans to the tune of a 10-112-1 receiving line on 12 targets. Granted, Butler held him to 54 yards on 23 routes, but Jones was targeted on six of his 15 routes away from Butler's coverage, which allowed the big game. Butler has otherwise slowed No. 1 receivers in recent weeks, but Week 15 supplied additional evidence that we shouldn't be worried about moving the needle on Packers' Davante Adams in Week 16. Butler figures to shadow him (though it's not a lock with Adoree' Jackson back), but Adams doesn't need to be downgraded.
The Packers haven't shadowed since Week 8, so there's little reason to suspect they will against the Titans this week. While this does set up as a scenario in which they would've shadowed earlier this season (5-foot-11 Jaire Alexander against 6-foot AJ Brown and 6-foot-3 Kevin King against 6-foot-3 Corey Davis), they were in a similar scenario against 6-foot DJ Moore and 6-foot-3 Robby Anderson in Week 15 and did not shadow. So, yes, there's a chance star corner Alexander will follow Brown this week, which would be bad news for him and good news for Davis against King, but this is nothing more than something to keep in the back of your mind when setting lineups.