Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' start and sit decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to this: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a teamwide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running-back-by-committee approaches. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (at New York Jets). He has played some of the best football of his career of late, his 98.9 fantasy points third most among quarterbacks in the past four weeks, driven by a 70.2 completion percentage that is considerably better than his 62.2% career rate. Mayfield continues to get good protection from his offensive line, his 3.1 seconds before throws the most among qualified quarterbacks, and he's going with more of a short-to-intermediate game plan relying on slot receiver Jarvis Landry in recent weeks. The Jets have been getting beaten up by opposing quarterbacks all year but especially since October, surrendering a 20-point game to six of the past 10 starters they've faced. Don't read too much into the Jets' Week 15 upset of Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams. This is a plum matchup, and Mayfield is a locked-in, top-10 option.
Unfavorable matchup: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (versus Los Angeles Rams). Which Wilson is going to show up this week? The throw, throw, throw edition of the season's first nine weeks, during which time he averaged a second-among-quarterbacks 28.5 fantasy points, or the hand-it-off, game-manager-of-a-conservative-offense edition of the six weeks since, during which time he has averaged 32.2 pass attempts and 15.6 fantasy points, the latter 20th best at the position? While it's difficult to imagine the Seahawks continuing this recent game plan, the team is 4-2 during that time, so it's a dangerous thing to assume a significant shift here, even with an NFC West title potentially on the line. The other problem is the matchup itself. The Rams have afforded only two games worth 18-plus fantasy points to a quarterback all season, the 31.2 to Josh Allen in Week 3 and 23.5 to Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 6, and they held Wilson himself to his worst single-game output all year, 9.9 points in Week 10. You should at least explore stronger options for Week 16.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (at Las Vegas Raiders). He returned to practice on Wednesday, as good an indicator as any that he'll be activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list in time to play on Saturday. While Salvon Ahmed is coming off a best-by-a-Dolphins-running-back 21.7 PPR fantasy points, Gaskin still seems likely to return as the team's starter rather than a backup or change-of-pace back, given that Gaskin has previously returned from knee and shoulder injuries to greater than 70% snap shares and at least 13.3 PPR fantasy points in each of his two return-to-action games. Even if the two share the workload, the matchup itself is favorable enough to support each of their candidacies as fantasy starters. The Raiders boast the best matchup for running backs in the chart below and are the third best using full-season data (4.7 adjusted fantasy points added, and they have been getting slaughtered on the ground recently, with league-leading 116.8 fantasy points and 0.89 points per carry allowed to the position in the past five weeks. Four of the Raiders' past nine opponents had multiple running backs score 10-plus PPR fantasy points, which bodes well for Gaskin and Ahmed if the Dolphins go the committee route.
Unfavorable matchup: D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers). I'll be clear up front: I'd start Swift if I had him in my league's championship game. The Lions obviously regard him as their clear top backfield option, giving him a 59% snap share (72-of-123) in his two games since returning from a concussion, which is more than Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson have played combined during that time. Swift also has six of the team's 10 goal-to-go rushing attempts and the only two red zone targets that a Lions running back has seen in those same two games, giving him a touchdown-dependent leaning that should lock him into your lineups. The problem is that this isn't a good matchup as far as rushing the football is concerned. The Buccaneers are the seventh-toughest matchup for a running back in the past five weeks, and the toughest if using full-season data (minus-5.8 adjusted FPA), affording the position 0.42 points per rushing attempt from Weeks 11-15, second fewest in the league, and 0.50 for the season, fewest. This is the defense that held Dalvin Cook to 19.0 PPR fantasy points just two weeks ago, and Alvin Kamara to 15.9 in Week 9. Maybe Swift can approach those totals with the good fortune of a goal-line conversion, but he's a mere RB2 for me in Week 16.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Detroit Lions). The Lions have collapsed against the pass of late, surrendering a whopping, league-leading six games of 20-plus PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers the past five weeks. During that time, their defense has allowed the highest catch rate (77.6%), the third-most yards after catch per reception (6.05) and the third-most receiving touchdowns (12), as receivers have both been gaining separation against and finding constant holes in the Lions' secondary to extend plays. This is the kind of defense against which you should load up, and the Buccaneers' passing offense is one of the better ones from which to draw, with three viable starters in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Brown. Frankly, I'd love to sing Scotty Miller's praises here, considering his top-shelf speed and how it matches up favorably with this secondary, but since Miller has played only 17% (41-of-237) offensive snaps the past five weeks, Brown (57%, 136-of-237) is the pick. It's a WR3 level of usage for the veteran wideout, but this matchup affords a lot of room for upside in that ranking tier.
Unfavorable matchup: Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens (versus New York Giants). He has enjoyed four consecutive weeks of at least 13.0 PPR fantasy points and has a massive 37% target share (29-of-78) during that span, and bear in mind that included an early-week stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list entering his 15.8-point Week 15. Brown has played a big part in the Ravens passing game's recent resurgence, but he has also faced some light matchups during that time, including the Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars the past three weeks. This matchup, by comparison, is a poor one, against a Giants defense that has allowed a 15 PPR fantasy point performance to only three wide receivers -- DeAndre Hopkins' 22.6 in Week 14, Jarvis Landry's 19.1 in Week 15 and Tee Higgins' 15.4 in Week 12 -- in its past five games. Cornerback James Bradberry, who missed Week 15 while on the reserve/COVID-19 list himself, has been largely responsible for holding opposing WR1s to quiet days. He hasn't afforded a touchdown in any of his past five games, allowing only 25.3 PPR fantasy points on 22 targets over 174 coverage snaps.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (at New York Jets). He's coming off a season-high 15.1 PPR fantasy point performance, during which he had six targets, two of which came in the red zone, and continues to earn a better-than-70% snap share when healthy enough to play. Hooper has played four of the Browns' past five games, and in them, he has three end-zone targets, as sure a sign as any that he's getting more of Mayfield's looks in scoring position -- and that's especially promising considering Mayfield's aforementioned improvements. This Jets defense has struggled against tight ends just as against wide receivers, allowing a 10 PPR fantasy point individual performance in each of its past five games, including to Tyler Higbee (16.7, Week 15) and Will Dissly (10.3, Week 14) the past two. With the Browns' passing game still lacking its big-play wideout (Odell Beckham Jr.), there's a good chance that Hooper will keep getting a good number of targets.
Unfavorable matchup: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Denver Broncos). The Broncos have played much better defense against the pass this season than people perceive, but especially so over the past month-plus. Sure, Travis Kelce scored 27.6 PPR fantasy points against this defense in Week 13, but it otherwise hasn't allowed a game worth more than 13.6 points to any individual tight end all year. Heck, Henry faced the Broncos in Week 8 and scored only 7.3 points on four targets, despite playing 81 of 84 offensive snaps and running 37 routes, the most any tight end has run against the Broncos all season. The team has been especially effective when cornerback Michael Ojemudia is covering the tight end, as in the past five weeks he has afforded the position only one catch on 22 coverage snaps.