It's Week 16 of the NFL season, which means the finals in most fantasy football leagues. You've made it this far, now are you ready to claim a championship? Matthew Berry's Love/Hate is here to help get a trophy and the bragging rights and perhaps administer some sort of legendary punishment to your league's biggest loser.
"Looking forward to next year!"
"Can't wait for next year!"
"Eh, not my year. Next year!"
Whether you're playing in your league's final or you started Barkley/Kittle this year and well, it has been a long season, all of us feel the same around this time of the season.
Already looking forward to next year.
Especially this year.
2020 has been the most brutal year for so many of us, and none of us can wait until 2021, hoping the turn of the calendar will start to wash away at least a small part of the many challenges 2020 brought. And while trivial in the grand scheme of things, it's also true in fantasy football.
I mean, hey, let's be clear. It has been a blessing that we even had a season.
But even with the caveat that fantasy football always has a bunch of surprises, this was a weird year, with lots of big-name injuries, shocking performances (both in a positive and negative sense) and games delayed or played at odd times. (Who wants some more Wednesday afternoon football, baby?)
So while the majority of the column below is focusing on the here and now, I wanted to also look toward the future. I'm a big believer that one of the most important things anyone can have is hope. Hope that it'll get better, that it'll eventually work out, that next year you will be the one who drafts DK Metcalf in the middle rounds, picks up James Robinson and Justin Herbert and understands the great value of Darren Waller. So for the holidays, I'd like to offer you some hope. Because I believe in you. I have seen it happen. Regardless of how this year went, good or bad, next year will be your year. No other way to think.
Which means there's no offseason. No time like the present to start thinking about 2021. With that in mind, here's my Way-Too-Early-No-Seriously-This-Is-Way-Too-Freaking-Early Top 50 for 2021.
Before we dive in, some caveats. This is based on ESPN standard scoring, which is to say 10-team leagues, PPR scoring, QB/2 RBs/2 WRs/TE/Flex/DST/K. I am doing this ranking as the NFL is today. In other words, if Drew Brees retires this year, that potentially would hurt Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, but I am ranking them as if Brees is their QB next year because he currently is. So even though there's a chance guys such as Allen Robinson II or Kenny Golladay could be on new teams next year, I am ranking them as if they are on Chicago and Detroit, respectively. I am also ranking with the idea that every injured player (such as Saquon Barkley) will be back and healthy to start the year, although their injury risk is baked into where I rank them.
Fantasy player value changes with every week, every game, and once the season ends, the playoffs will have some effect on value, as will, obviously, free agency and the draft, both of which follow the season. That's a long way of saying these ranks will change a zillion times between now and late August 2021, but as of Thursday, Dec. 24, 2020, here's my Way-Too-Early-No-Seriously-This-Is-Way-Too-Freaking-Early Top 50 for 2021:
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers
2. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
3. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
4. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
5. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs
7. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
8. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
9. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
10. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys
11. Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers
12. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
13. DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
14. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Cardinals
15. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
16. Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons
17. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
18. James Robinson, RB, Jaguars
19. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
20. George Kittle, TE, 49ers
21. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
22. A.J. Brown, WR, Titans
23. Antonio Gibson, RB, WFT
24. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
25. D'Andre Swift, RB, Lions
26. Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles
27. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
28. Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals
29. Darren Waller, TE, Raiders
30. Allen Robinson II, WR, Bears
31. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
32. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
33. Cam Akers, RB, Rams
34. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs
35. Terry McLaurin, WR, WFT
36. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens
37. Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks
38. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
39. Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions
40. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
41. Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys
42. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
43. Will Fuller V, WR, Texans
44. Robert Woods, WR, Rams
45. David Montgomery, RB, Bears
46. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings
47. Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers
48. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
49. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
50. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
There you have it. I can tell you that a lot of players were very close to making it and you could make a strong argument for a lot of the guys not on the list. I'd tell you to reach out on social media and tell me what I got wrong, but I know you'll do that anyway. Looking forward to the discussion all offseason.
Before we get to it, a few quick things. First, this is the last Love/Hate of the 2020 season. There is no Week 17 column this year. However, for those of you playing in Week 17, don't worry. I will still be doing rankings, I will still be doing all the episodes of the Fantasy Focus podcast and, of course, The Fantasy Show on ESPN+ will have its normal schedule. Plus, Fantasy Football Now continues both this Sunday and the Sunday of Week 17 -- we air 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and the ESPN App.
Since this is the last column, I just want to take a moment to tell you how much I truly appreciate you reading, supporting, sending tweets, DMs, notes and emails of encouragement and hanging with me and this column. Hopefully it has helped more than it has hurt, and more importantly that you've gotten something positive out of the time we spend together every week. I know I sure have.
I want to thank all of my editors (make no mistake, I am not an easy edit), starting with Bob McClellan, along with Pierre Becquey, who get support from Dane Beavers and John Pluym and the entire copy desk of ESPN. I bounce ideas and brainstorm the column every week with a great group of friends and colleagues, including DJ Gallo, Scott Clark and Damian Dabrowski. Damian, meanwhile, also helps out with research as does "Thirsty" Kyle Soppe of the Fantasy Focus 06010, who is a tireless worker. Kevin Pulsifer has helped out here and there during the year as well and it's greatly appreciated.
My wife, Beth, goes above and beyond in terms of our family, and I couldn't spend all day and night on Wednesday just writing this thing without her love and support.
I appreciate all of them and again, you. When you have 5,000 words staring at you every week, you grab inspiration wherever you can find it and I know I am truly blessed to have it all around me.
Until we meet again my friend, good luck, stay safe and God bless. For one last time in 2020 ... let's get to it.
Quarterbacks I love in Week 16
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, vs. 49ers
I'm not quite ready to declare the existence of a Home Kyler and a Road Kyler, but I will say that Home Kyler has at least three touchdowns (rushing and passing) in all seven of his home games so far this season. And while he has been inconsistent recently until last week and a matchup against the 49ers might not sound great, both Kylers have put up at least 23 points against San Francisco in all three of his career games against the Niners. Quarterbacks have scored more than 21 points against San Francisco six times this season and every single time it was a fairly mobile QB: Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz and Murray himself. Home Kyler will do it again Saturday.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, at Cowboys
Am I tempting fate? I mean, Hurts has been on the "Love" list each of the past two weeks and he has made me look good. More fantasy points in his first two career starts than any other active quarterback except Cam Newton. He has crushed and if I hadn't broken my foot I would be running around my desk, taking an actual victory lap right now. Instead, I'll leave the running to Hurts, who has back-to-back games with double-digit fantasy points AS ONLY A RUSHER. So while many might back away from the table and check out the buffet, I'm on a hot streak, baby, so I'm letting the dice fly and doubling down on those split eights, which now that I write it seems off. It has been way too long since I've been to Vegas. The point is I'm tripling down and going all-in once again on Hurts this week as a top-five play against a Cowboys defense that has given up 28 or more points in four of five games since the team's Week 10 bye. And Dallas is also allowing passing touchdowns at the highest rate this season. It's a fantasy-friendly offense (Hurts has 103 combined passes and rushes in his past two games, the second most by a QB through their first two starts over the past decade) and you know the rules: always split aces and eights, stay on 17, don't interrupt a hot shooter at the craps table and oh yeah, start Jalen Hurts against the Cowboys.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns, at Jets
Perhaps the only thing more shocking than the Jets' upset of the Rams last week is that Mayfield seems to be a good quarterback only when Odell Beckham Jr. isn't on the field. But whatevs. For now, let's focus on the fact that Mayfield is averaging 24.7 fantasy points over his past four games -- good for QB3 over that stretch, with at least 18 fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in all four games. In fact, in that time frame, he is second in touchdown passes and third in passing yards. All of which bodes well against the aforementioned Jets, who might have caught the Rams sleeping but won't sneak up on Cleveland. Even when you factor in the win vs L.A., New York is still bottom five in passing TDs allowed and yards per pass attempt, and has given up the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Still lots of questions. Why is he good without OBJ? Why did the Jets cost themselves Trevor Lawrence? Why won't Baker move out of the stadium in those commercials? Seems like living in a big place like that is just a big hassle for him. Anyway, for now, the only thing you need to ponder is how you'll celebrate once Baker leads you to a title this weekend. Maybe plant a flag in your opponent's yard? I have Mayfield as a top-10 play this week.
Other receiving votes
Add Mitchell Trubisky becoming a productive quarterback to the list of 2020 things no one could have predicted. Trubisky's running gives him a solid floor -- he had a season-high eight carries last week -- and his matchup against the Jaguars this week gives him a high ceiling too. Jacksonville has given up 31 passing touchdowns this season, tied for most in the league, and the Jags also have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. ... Keep your running backs away from the Tampa defense, but not your quarterbacks. Over their past four games, the Bucs are allowing 24.8 fantasy points per game to QBs -- second most over that span. Tampa is also giving up a league-high 334 passing yards per game over that stretch. Even though he's clearly hurt, that sets up well for Matthew Stafford this week in two-quarterback or deeper leagues, especially considering Stafford's Lions probably will be playing catch-up all day. ... Over their past 24 games, Ryan Tannehill has a higher quarterback rating and more total touchdowns than Patrick Mahomes. That's pretty good, right? Tannehill is QB7 in total points this season and QB10 on a per-game basis. He's a solid QB1 in fantasy, even if you still haven't convinced yourself it's true.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 16
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, vs. Rams
It's time to let Russ cook. And by that I mean let him cook you a ham, a turkey, a nice piece of fish ... whatever it is that you like to eat at the holidays. Just keep him in the kitchen this week and away from playing quarterback for your fake football team. I get it, he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer, he has the ability to go wild at any point, and there was a period of time this season when he was the best QB in fantasy. But in a game of what's most likely to happen, Wilson has less than 15.5 fantasy points in three of his past four games, so if you are in the finals this week, it's in spite of him, not because of him. Things are unlikely to get better this week against the Rams, who are giving up a league-low 13.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, including holding Wilson to a season-low 9.9 fantasy points in Week 10. In fact, in Wilson's past two games against the Rams, his 73 pass attempts have resulted in a grand total of zero touchdowns and three interceptions. That's not cooking, that's food poisoning. I have Wilson outside my top 10 this week.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, at Chiefs
Ryan was on the Hate list last week and went out and put up 27.8 fantasy points against the Bucs. What a jerk. But as the old saying goes: "You can fool me once, Matt Ryan. But fooling me twice is unlikely because you pretty much never have two good games in a row." Ryan hasn't thrown multiple touchdown passes in consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. He also has seven games this season with less than 14 fantasy points, as well as eight finishes outside the top 15 in weekly scoring, including each of his past four games prior to his Week 15 aberration. Look for Ryan's production to take a big dip this week against a Chiefs defense that allows opponents to complete just 61.1% of their passes, third lowest in the league. And while you might not think completion percentage is a super relevant fantasy stat, consider that Ryan averages just 10.1 points per game this season when completing fewer than 65.5% of his passes. If you are in the finals this week, you have very likely done it with a QB other than Matt Ryan. Keep doing it this week.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers, vs. Colts
Last week, Roethlisberger was on the Hate list, so, to prove me wrong, he went out last Monday night and marshaled all of his veteran moxie to finally figure out a way to prevent his receivers from dropping his passes. His solution? Throw passes nowhere near his receivers. You can't drop what you can't catch, right? Guy pointing at his forehead GIF. Monday night's debacle put Roethlisberger under 14 fantasy points in three of his past four games, and over that stretch he ranks 33rd out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in fantasy points per pass attempt -- ahead of only Cam Newton and Dwayne Haskins. Yikes. Pittsburgh is desperate to fix its offense in time for the playoffs, but it's unlikely to happen this week against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-fewest touchdown passes on the season and the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Running backs I love in Week 16
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles, at Cowboys
I am a lifelong Washington fan. I need Philly to lose this game. I also am playing in the finals of a hard-core, 33-man roster, 12-team dynasty league filled with a lot of well-known fantasy analysts. My opponent has Sanders. I want desperately to be wrong about Hurts and Philly and most of all Sanders. I just don't think I will be. I think he goes off. Dallas has given up the most rushing yards in the league this season and the second-most yards per carry (5.0). (Maybe all Ezekiel Elliott needs to get on track is to play against the Cowboys?) Anyway ... Sanders does get to play against the Cowboys, and running backs with 16-plus touches versus Dallas this season average 19.0 FPPG. Sanders has averaged 18 touches per game since Jalen Hurts became the starter. I have Sanders as a top-10 RB in Week 16, and given my luck last week (I lost three semifinals by margins of 0.6, 1.9 and 9.4 -- where I had Eric Ebron going on MNF before he left after his first play), I am sure Sanders is going off. Sigh.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears, at Jaguars
I love David Montgomery. Not just this week, I mean overall. When I've said fade him all season long, he has been fade worthy. When we said trade for him because his playoff schedule is going to be ridiculous and we've been putting him on the Love list the past few weeks, he has crushed. Cheers to you, David Montgomery, as you should cap off a helluva playoff run this week against the Jaguars, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs and third-most rushing yards allowed this season. Averaging 21 touches a game over the past four, Montgomery has turned a great schedule and huge volume into massive fantasy production with at least 24 fantasy points in that time frame. I say it'll be over his past five, as Montgomery will most definitely be the player rostered on most championship teams that just squeaked into the playoffs on a tiebreaker and is now driving every other team crazy because they are winning every week going away. Start Montgomery and may you be this consistent next year -- either way!
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts, at Steelers
Jonathan Taylor and the Steelers feels like the plot of one of those 1980s movies where the two main characters switch lives and they are both played by an actor who hasn't had a good movie in like a decade and clearly just needed a money gig. Over the past three weeks, after being left for fantasy dead, Taylor is averaging 24.2 fantasy points and 19.3 touches per game, and has a touchdown in all three of those games. Meanwhile, over the same three-week period, the Steelers have gone from 11-0 to ... dumpster fire GIF. I don't know how the movie ends, but I do know the next scene: Taylor has a big day against a Steelers defense that got shredded on the ground this past Monday night and has now allowed either 100-plus rushing yards or a rushing touchdown in each of the past four games. Don't be scared by the ghost of Steelers past. Start Taylor against the Steelers of present. Or just wait. This movie will be on cable in a week.
Others receiving votes
As a group this season, 49ers running backs rank fourth in fantasy points per game and have scored rushing touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate. Jeff Wilson Jr. has 11 red zone and seven goal-to-go carries in his past three games. With Raheem Mostert now out for the season, Wilson will get an even greater workload and is my bet for player most likely to score a rushing touchdown this week. ... Thanks for showing up to the 2020 season finally, David Johnson! Eleven receptions last week (Johnson had 11 total receptions in his previous seven games), he's a great PPR play this week if he gets anywhere near that volume again in the passing game. Worth noting Johnson has scored in three of his past four fully healthy games. ... The Miami running back situation is one you'll want to monitor all the way up to kickoff Saturday. Miami plays the Raiders, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. If we get clarity as to who will get the majority of work (Myles Gaskin or Salvon Ahmed), I like that player's chances to get into the end zone. The Raiders have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns this year. ... Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season, as well as a league-high 5.4 yards per carry to the position. With Joe Mixon once against ruled out and coming off a 26-touch, two-touchdown game against the (lowly?) Steelers, Giovani Bernard has some flex value this week. ... J.D. McKissic is averaging 18.0 fantasy points over his past three games with nine-plus receptions in two of those contests. And even if Antonio Gibson plays, McKissic can still produce. In the six games with Gibson active and Alex Smith at QB, McKissic still averaged 13.1 fantasy points, averaging just over six catches a game. All of which makes him a viable flex against a Panthers team that allows the sixth-most RB receptions per game.
Running backs I hate in Week 16
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys, vs. Eagles
Since Dak Prescott got hurt, Elliott ranks 58th out of 63 running backs in fantasy points per touch (minimum 50 touches). Behind Todd Gurley II and just barely ahead of Frank Gore. "Well, the Dallas offense is broken. It's not Zeke's fault." Ehhh, we sure about that? Over that same span, Tony Pollard ranks 15th in fantasy points per touch. Facing an Eagles defense that allows the second-fewest yards per carry to running backs, Elliott remains on fantasy benches for me in Week 16. Except in that crazy deep dynasty league final I mentioned in the Sanders write-up. In that league I have no other choice but to start Zeke. So yeah, I assure you, he's gonna be brutal again this Sunday if he plays. My pain is your gain. You're welcome, America.
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals, vs. 49ers
From the makers of touchdown-dependent tight ends, we present: touchdown-dependent running backs! Drake is averaging just 7.5 fantasy points this season in games in which he doesn't score a touchdown. With Kyler Murray starting to run again, it means fewer Drake rushes. He never has been a huge part of the passing game (only one game this year with more than 15 receiving yards) and he played the same number of snaps as Chase Edmonds last week. When you combine the decreased usage with the fact San Francisco has allowed an opposing RB to score more than 14.5 fantasy points against them only four times this season, you need Drake to score a touchdown this week to pay off. How lucky do you feel? I'll tell you how lucky I feel. Drake is outside my top 20 at the position in Week 16.
Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs, vs. Falcons
Not so long ago, having Bell in a Chiefs uniform as their clear RB1 and in your lineup for the fantasy finals would have been the dream of every fantasy manager. But I'm not sure it should be in Week 16 of 2020. For everything that has gone wrong for the Falcons this year, their run defense has been good. Atlanta allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game and the third-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs. So you probably are counting on his passing-game usage, which, as the person who drafted CEH and is sitting at home out of the playoffs this week will tell you, that'd dicey. Truth is, Bell just isn't the back he once was. Behind the same offensive line, Bell averages 32.5% fewer yards per carry before first contact than Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And, since his trade to K.C., Bell ranks 36th among running backs with at least 50 touches in fantasy points per touch. He's just not efficient anymore. I'm not saying don't play Le'Veon Bell this week, I'm just saying it's not the no-brainer you might think it is at first glance. The backs who got you this far might be the better play.
Pass-catchers I love in Week 16
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Lions
There's nothing wide receivers love more than waking up early Christmas morning and creeping downstairs to find the Detroit Lions' defense waiting for them under the tree. Over the past four weeks, the Lions are allowing a league-high 81% catch rate to wide receivers. And over that same four-week stretch, the Lions also have allowed both the second-most yards and fantasy points to the position as well as six touchdowns. You know I like Matthew Stafford to be throwing in this one and it's partially because I know Tampa Bay will be crushing. Add in an over/under of 54 (as of this writing), the fact Evans ranks top 10 in both end zone and red zone targets and, most importantly, I face Mike Evans in two different finals this week (including that dynasty one I've mentioned) ... and I assure you Mike Evans is about go off this weekend.
Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions, vs. Buccaneers
Since Week 8, the last game in which Kenny Golladay played, Jones is WR6 in total fantasy points and WR12 on a per-game basis. As mentioned above, this should be a high-scoring game and the expectation here is that the Lions will have to throw a lot to keep up with all the points Tom Brady puts on them. That means even more looks for Jones, who has had 44 targets over his past four games. Is 11 a game a lot? It seems like a lot. Very quietly Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past four weeks, and all that means Jones is a top-15 play for me this week.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns, at Jets
One of the few players who hasn't seen his career skyrocket after escaping Adam Gase, Landry is actually set up well for a big game against his former coach this week. The Jets allow the fifth-most yards per game to wide receivers this season, and Landry's production has really taken off as Baker Mayfield has taken his play to another level over the past month. You already know I have Mayfield as a top-10 play this week, so it makes sense I want to stack his favorite receiver, who is averaging 19.9 fantasy points with at least eight targets and six catches in each of the past four games.
Logan Thomas, Washington, vs. Panthers
You can't get Travis Kelce or Darren Waller if you don't already have them, unfortunately. But Thomas is still available in over 30% of ESPN leagues and is actually TE5 on the season thanks to double-digit fantasy points in four straight games, including two games with 20-plus. Thomas' run of production should continue this week against the Panthers, who have allowed the fifth-most receptions to tight ends this season. Also, not for nothing, but you know how I mentioned that team in the dynasty final I'm in has Miles Sanders and Mike Evans? They also have Thomas and it's TE premium scoring, which means tight ends get 1.5 points per reception. Big game coming.
Others receiving votes
Not Mike Evans, not Chris Godwin, not Rob Gronkowski, not Scotty Miller ... it's actually Antonio Brown who has been targeted on the highest percentage of his routes among all Tampa pass-catchers this season. And when you run routes and get targets against the Detroit Lions, fantasy points inevitably follow. It's science. ... Cole Beasley has 10-plus targets in each of his past three games. His opponent this week, the New England Patriots, allow the seventh-most yards per slot completion. Beasley will do work against the Patriots, while a single tear rolls down Bill Belichick's face as he helplessly watches the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman clone who got away. ... Andy Dalton loves him some CeeDee Lamb. With Dalton under center, the Cowboys rookie has been targeted on a team-high 25.3% of his routes. And if Dalton loves Lamb, I love Lamb against an Eagles team that over the past four weeks is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, especially with Michael Gallup banged up and not a guarantee to play as of this writing. ... Darnell Mooney has a touchdown in each of his past two games, and the Jaguars have allowed 17 touchdowns to wide receivers on the season, tied for fourth most in the league. ... I hate Dallas, which allows the second-highest catch rate to tight ends this season, but I also love Dallas (Goedert) against Dallas. He has a team-high 21% target share in Jalen Hurts' two starts and is my favorite stack with Hurts if you're playing DFS this weekend. ... The Jets have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season, and Austin Hooper has an end zone target in three of his past four games.
Pass-catchers I hate in Week 16
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings, at Saints
Thielen is still WR12 on the season, but that's because of past production and an unsustainable TD rate. Over the past two weeks, he has only five catches on seven targets. He also has 51 or fewer receiving yards in six of his past eight games. Part of the reason for his drop in production is that Kirk Cousins is looking more and more to Justin Jefferson when under pressure. From Weeks 1 to 8, Jefferson had a 17.6% target rate in pressure situations. Since then, that number has jumped to 25.5%. With the Saints having the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season, Thielen's potential for low volume worries me in the fantasy finals. Now, he does have six touchdowns in his past five games and you probably don't have a better option (to be clear, I still have Thielen as a top-20 play this week), but I would definitely lower expectations.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks, vs. Rams
Over the past four weeks, Lockett is WR59 on a per-game basis. He also has less than 12.5 fantasy points in all four of those games. So he has been awful but ... consistent? Hey, I'm trying to keep things positive. It's the holidays. Look for Lockett's ... uhh ... "consistency" to continue this week against a Rams defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points, the fewest yards and the fewest touchdowns to wide receivers.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans, vs. Bengals
Over the past four weeks, Cincinnati is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Yes, believe it or not, the Bengals aren't just shutting down receivers who do TikTok dances on their logo. Some of it has been poor QB play of course, but hey, they're fired up in Cincy. Meanwhile, Cooks has struggled lately as well, with under 70 yards in each of his past two games and zero red zone targets over his past three. With probable shadow coverage from William Jackson, who has been terrific this season, I'm not expecting a big game from Cooks on Sunday.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts, at Steelers
Over the past four weeks, the Steelers are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Consider that stat the polish on Pittsburgh's lousy December. And here's some more polish: On the season, the Steelers allow a league-low 56.9% catch rate to wide receivers. Yes, Hilton has come on late this season, but it's still hard for me to trust him in the fantasy finals in a bad matchup. It's even harder for me to trust him when volume hasn't been there in any matchup. Hilton has only two games all season with more than five receptions. In a game with the lowest under/over on the slate, I have Hilton outside my top 30 this week.
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers, vs. Colts
Why is Ebron on the hate list, you ask? In a #revengegame against his former team? Is it because he might not be 100% healthy? Is it because the Colts have allowed only two touchdowns all year to opposing tight ends? Or the sixth-fewest fantasy points to TEs? Or the ninth-fewest yards allowed to tight ends? Or is it because he was my tight end last week when I was playing in the semifinals of the Agbo Superhero Fantasy Football League for charity and as I entered Monday Night Football I needed only 9.4 points from Ebron to advance to the finals and earn a chance at an additional $150,000 for The V Foundation for Cancer Research and considering Ebron had had at least 10 points in three of his past four and four of his past six and the Bengals give up the second-most points to tight ends that I was feeling good and then his QB threw him into triple coverage and he got hurt and was out for the rest of the game and now I will have raised less money for cancer research and not play in the finals in a 14-team league where I was second in overall total points and that's what I get for stupidly trusting Eric Ebron and the nosediving Steelers offense, which looked absolutely awful against the BENGALS?!?!?!?!? Hard to say. Could be any reason really.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans, at Packers
Last week was Smith's first game with more than 20 receiving yards since Week 9. And while you'd think a 6-foot-3, 248-pound tight end would be a red zone target, Smith hasn't had a single red zone look over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the Packers allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Smith is outside my top 15 tight ends in Week 16.
Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, thanks you for reading all year and hopes you have a great, safe and happy holiday. And successful Week 16!