Success in daily fantasy comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships among the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are the week's best buys?
Each week, I'll go through each position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool. And while things may change from when I write this until game time, I'll do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 16.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: We heard for months about all the reasons why the Eagles shouldn't start Hurts and all it took was two games for him to completely disprove all those poorly created narratives about his ability. Is he flawed as a thrower? Sure, to some extent, but all we care about is fantasy points and in that regard he's a monster. Dallas allows a touchdown on 31.4% of drives (third most in the league) and a touchdown pass on a league high 6.9% of pass attempts so Hurts could see a nice bump in his efficiency this week.
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars: Guys, hear me out. Trubisky has actually been good since moving back into the starting job in Week 12 for the Bears. He hasn't posted massive DraftKings numbers but at his price he doesn't need to. Of all the cheaper quarterback options I like him the most for head-to-head games if you're not comfortable paying up for one of the higher priced quarterbacks with the rushing floor and upside combination to make the rest of your roster fit. If he can post 20 points this weekend against Jacksonville, who we've been streaming quarterbacks against all season, it will be more than enough at his salary on both sites.
Also interested in:
Justin Herbert ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos: The Chargers are favored in this game and in wins this season Herbert has logged a 72.6% completion rate, 317.5 pass yards per game and 10 touchdowns vs. one interception.
Matt Ryan ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs: Ryan has four games with three or more touchdown passes and 74.4% of Atlanta's yards come through the air this season (second highest, trailing only Houston).
Running backs
David Montgomery ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars: From also ran to absolute league winner, Montgomery has transformed right before our eyes the last four weeks and has another cupcake matchup waiting for him here in Week 16. Jacksonville allows 2.6 points per drive (third most), a league high 6.3 yards per play and 117.1 rush yards per game to opposing running backs (third most). Montgomery has a path to a boatload of touches once again and while the salary has come up he's going to be one of the most popular backs on the slate, and for good reason.
Austin Ekeler ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos: Ekeler may not challenge for the 100 yard bonus on DraftKings, but his volume, especially in the pass game, is what makes him super valuable especially on this slate where there is running back value but it's dangerous. Due to his pass game role, Ekeler is one of the safer running backs on the slate against a middling defense vs. running backs. Denver allows opponents to complete 76.1% of short passes, the third highest rate in the league, and this is exactly where Ekeler makes his money.
Also interested in:
Nick Chubb ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: Chubb gets the matchup against the Jets in Week 16 and while from a defense vs. position perspective the Jets haven't been torched by running backs, they haven't played a team like the Browns who are content on establishing the run at every possible turn. This season 40.7% of Cleveland's yards have come on the ground, third highest in the league but only trailing Baltimore and New England who get a large chunk of rushing yardage from the quarterbacks. On DraftKings you're going to have to pay up to get Chubb but on DraftKings he's priced at a point where he can smash his value threshold if he breaks off one more of his league leading long runs.
LeVeon Bell ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta owns the fifth worst red zone defense (67.3%) and 6.1 yards per play (fourth most). Bell is fresh and in his three games with Kansas City with 7+ carries since joining the squad, he has a 10+ yard rush and a 10+ yard catch in all three of those games.
Wide receivers
Calvin Ridley ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs: Monitor Julio Jones' injury status as the week goes on because Ridley is utilized completely differently in the games where Jones plays compared to those where he doesn't. In the six games without Jones both this and last season, Ridley averaged 6.0 more fantasy points per game on the back of 11.3 targets per game compared to 7.4 when Jones is healthy. The matchup with the Chiefs is fine with the high total, the game script likely forcing the Falcons to pass even more than they already tend to do and the Chiefs own the worst red zone defense in the league as well as 29.6 yards per deep completion, second worst only to the Dallas Cowboys.
Terry McLaurin ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers: McLaurin's usage in Week 15 was there for a smash game, but he just didn't break through. All of the passing usage is flowing through McLaurin and Logan Thomas and no team in the league forces less three-and-outs than the Panthers, which could lead to more sustained drives for the WFT offense and that's always good for McLaurin. An end zone target in consecutive games is also a step in the right direction after five consecutive games without one.
CeeDee Lamb ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have been a mess in the defensive backfield and no team allows more goal-to-go drives per game than Philadelphia. Lamb will certainly have opportunities this week, more even if Gallup can't get back to 100% by the time the game kicks off. Lamb has six or more targets in five of his last six games and has caught all three of his deep targets the past two weeks. Solid floor of targets and massive big splash ability for a cheaper price than it should be? Sign me up.
Also interested in:
Curtis Samuel ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team: Samuel has nine targets and two rush attempts in consecutive games and seven of his 12 red zone targets this season have come over his last four games.
Tight ends
Logan Thomas ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers: Is it possible that Thomas has turned the corner? Well, maybe not Thomas because I don't think he's been the problem, but more that the WFT quarterbacks have finally realized that when you have an athletic weapon at tight end out in routes as much as Thomas has been this year (he leads the league in routes run per drop back percentage) that throwing that guy the ball more than 3-4 times a game is a good thing! The Panthers intercept 1% of passes, the second lowest rate in the league, and Thomas was responsible for six of WFT's 13 first down catches last week, showing they trust him in leverage situations.
Dallas Goedert ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Goedert remains underpriced vs. recent volume which is especially an issue on DraftKings, the more volume driven site of the two. Goedert has seen a significant rise on his targets per routes run in the three games since Zach Ertz returned (28.4% vs 20.1% last year) and Dallas allows a league high 1.5 end zone completions per game this season, giving us a heightened touchdown expectation as well. It's all just too much for a super cheap price of $3,600 on DraftKings.
Also interested in:
Austin Hooper ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: The Jets allow a league-high 13.5 yards per TE reception and the fifth highest red zone CMP% (67.7%). Hooper has seen an end zone target in three of his past four games.
Jordan Akins ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel), Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati allows the second most yards per TE reception and Akins is one of only six tight ends with 6+ targets in each of the past two weeks.
Defenses
Cleveland Browns ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), vs New York Jets
Houston Texans ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos ($2,300 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel), vs Los Angeles Chargers
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.