The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy football perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire pickups, trade decisions and lineup sit/start choices for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Opportunity alert
Throughout the team-by-team rundowns below, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equally. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his "expected" fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league-average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 9 OFP leaderboard:
*Complete OTD and OFP positional leaderboards will be posted on ESPN+ this week.
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and thus are candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these players fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn't be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Team-by-team rundowns
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray just keeps getting better and better ... and better. In Week 9, the No. 1 overall pick from 2019 was the top-scoring fantasy quarterback for the first time in his career. That brings him to eight top-10 fantasy weeks in as many tries this season and his average of 26.3 fantasy points per game is best among quarterbacks. Murray has been a threat through the air with 2,130 yards (12th among QBs) and 16 touchdowns (11th), but his real value has come as a rusher, where he has added 76 carries (second), 543 yards (first), and eight touchdowns (first). Impressively, Murray has at least one rushing touchdown in seven of his eight games. He was a value throughout fantasy's draft season and he's well on his way to easily paying off his ADP (and then some). Arguably the top fantasy quarterback right now, Murray is an obvious lineup lock.
Atlanta Falcons: Todd Gurley II heads into Atlanta's Week 10 bye having scored nine touchdowns in nine games. The TD explosion is hardly a surprise for a player who scored a league-high 70 touchdowns in 73 games during five seasons with the Rams. Gurley, as you can imagine, is producing touchdowns at a rate well above expected, though nine scores compared to a 6.6 OTD is hardly an unsustainable pace. Gurley currently sits third at running back in carries (159) and fourth in carries inside-the-opponent's 5-yard line (10). As long as that usage continues, he'll be near the league lead in touchdowns. Fantasy's No. 6 overall running back (16th on a per-game basis) remains a weekly fringe RB2.
Baltimore Ravens: Based on fantasy points allowed during Weeks 1-9, the Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule for wide receivers. This is potentially huge news for Marquise Brown, who has handled a generous 24% of the Ravens' targets and 41% of their air yards this season. The heavy share of the workload hasn't led to much fantasy production so far, as the 2019 first-round pick has managed only one top-25 finish and just two better than 38th. Brown has found the end zone only twice and cleared 57 yards in a game a mere three times. The lack of production makes Brown a risky start, but the "easy" slate figures to lead to a big game or three. Consider him to be a flex option with upside for more.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen was red-hot to open the 2020 season, posting four consecutive top-four weeks. He fell off a bit from there with four finishes of 15th-or-worse before bouncing back in a big way with 415 passing yards and four total touchdowns against Seattle in Week 9. In total, Allen is fantasy's No. 4-scoring quarterback. The main concern for Allen moving forward is a very tough fantasy playoff schedule that includes the Steelers in Week 14 (second-fewest QB fantasy points allowed), followed by the Broncos (11th-most), Patriots (fifth-fewest) and Dolphins (12th-fewest). Regardless of whether or not you play into Week 17, that works out to one of the hardest slates for a quarterback. Allen's fantasy production will often be bailed out by Buffalo's pass-heavy scheme and his rushing ability, but we'll need to lower expectations during the most important part of the season.
Carolina Panthers: Robby Anderson has somewhat quietly emerged as one of 2020's breakout players. The former Jets field-stretcher has played a more well-rounded role in Carolina and ranks no lower than fifth at wide receiver in targets (80), receptions (60) and receiving yards (751). Anderson also sits 10th in fantasy points, despite his being quite underwhelming in the TD department. He hasn't seen much work near the goal line (three end-zone targets) and has also had some bad luck with one score, despite a 2.8 OTD. Anderson's heavy usage is unlikely to change and, considering that he left some meat on the bone in the first half, it's very likely that he'll continue to provide borderline WR1 numbers the rest of the way.
Chicago Bears: Since Tarik Cohen went down for the season in Week 3, David Montgomery has played on 80% of the Bears' offensive snaps, handling 79% of the designed rush attempts and managing a 13% target share. That has allowed the second-year back quite a high floor in fantasy, with just one weekly finish worse than 26th in six games. However, it hasn't led to a very high ceiling -- no finishes better than 13th. One reason for this is poor TD luck, as Montgomery has scored only twice, compared to a 5.4 OTD. That gap of 3.4 is third-largest in the league. Bears' running backs have racked up nine carries inside-the-opponent's 10-yard line this season and Montgomery has handled all of them. The Bears' offensive line remains an issue, but Montgomery's heavy usage (fifth at RB in touches), some TD regression to the mean, and the league's easiest remaining schedule for running backs should help him to achieve solid RB2 numbers, with room for even more.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow entered the Bengals' Week 9 bye as the No. 1 player in the entire NFL in OFP. Burrow's 186 opportunity-adjusted fantasy points were four more than second-place Josh Allen. Burrow's actual fantasy production (150 points) didn't quite live up to his usage, as the 36-point gap was second largest, behind only teammate A.J. Green (-51). Of course, Burrow underachieved during his first NFL starts. He's a logical candidate for improved efficiency in the second half and, considering he entered the bye first in passing attempts and sixth among quarterbacks in carries, that would mean some serious fantasy value. Consider Burrow to be a streaming option for now, but there's a chance he'll work his way into the weekly QB1 mix.
Cleveland Browns: Austin Hooper missed Cleveland's past two games with an injury, but he is expected back in Week 10 fresh off the bye. Following a very slow start in which he was limited to only 10 targets during his first three games with the Browns, Hooper was finally emerging as a reliable fantasy option before his injury. Hooper racked up 23 targets in his last three games, with at least six in all three contests. That usage allowed him to see three consecutive top-12 fantasy weeks. Especially with Odell Beckham Jr. out, it's not crazy to think that Hooper can hold down a 20% target share in the second half. He's actually at 25% over his past three games. Couple that with what is arguably the league's second-easiest remaining schedule for a tight end, and it would be plenty enough to allow him back-end TE1 numbers. Hooper was waived in a lot of leagues after his injury, but he should be scooped back up this week.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott went down for the season in Week 5. In the four games since, the Dallas offense has managed only two touchdowns. As you can imagine, the fantasy production hasn't been good. Ezekiel Elliott sits 24th in fantasy points at running back. Amari Cooper (21st), CeeDee Lamb (42nd) and Michael Gallup (79th) are struggling at wide receiver. Dalton Schultz sits 13th at tight end. Now, Andy Dalton is expected back following Dallas' Week 10 bye, but no one in this offense is a safe play right now. Your best bets are Elliott as an RB2 and Cooper as a WR3, though you should note that Elliott has the hardest remaining fantasy schedule for a running back.
Denver Broncos: Jerry Jeudy's NFL career got off to a slow start, with the first-round rookie failing to clear five receptions or 62 yards during his first six games. Things have changed lately, as Jeudy posted a 4-73-0 receiving line in Week 8 before setting career-high marks across the board with a 7-125-1 line on 14 targets against Atlanta in Week 9. Among 34 wide receivers with 50-plus targets this season, Jeudy's 14.9 aDOT is the highest and certainly helps to explain his 16.1 YPR (fifth highest) and 51% catch rate (second lowest). The cat seems to be out of the bag with Jeudy and his usage, which should allow for WR3 production (or better) moving forward. However, his ceiling could be limited a bit as Denver is staring at the league's third-hardest remaining schedule for wide receivers.
Detroit Lions: D'Andre Swift hasn't quite exploded onto the fantasy scene just yet, but the second-round rookie has progressively evolved into a solid weekly start. Swift was limited to just eight carries and 12 targets during his first three NFL games, but he has since managed either a touchdown or 97 scrimmage yards in four of his past five games. The exception came against the Colts' dominant run defense. After running behind Adrian Peterson earlier this season, Swift has now out-snapped the veteran in three consecutive games. Fantasy's No. 18-scoring RB has a limited ceiling, due to Detroit using three backs, but he's seeing enough work to allow for high-floor RB2 numbers. The rookie will also benefit from the league's sixth-easiest remaining schedule for a running back.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers threw 25 touchdown passes in 16 games in 2018. He threw 26 in 16 games in 2019. So far in 2020, Rodgers has thrown 24 ... in eight games. Fantasy's No. 5-scoring quarterback has already put up six top-seven fantasy weeks and has fallen short of 19 fantasy points only once. Rodgers has benefited from the league's easiest schedule for a quarterback through Week 9 and will face one of the toughest in the second half, which seems notable considering his dud came against a good Buccaneers defense. Still, even against tough opponents like Indianapolis and Chicago, Rodgers will be at worst a borderline QB1, considering how productive he's been this season.
Houston Texans: It's been a rough 2020 for Deshaun Watson, and things might not be much smoother down the stretch. Based on fantasy points allowed so far this season, Houston will face the hardest remaining QB schedule. That slate includes Cleveland (11th-most QB fantasy points allowed), New England (31st), Detroit (10th), Indianapolis twice (32nd), Chicago (29th) and Cincinnati (16th). Watson is fantasy's No. 6-scoring quarterback and has reeled off four top-10 outings in a row, but life is obviously going to be tough down the stretch. Watson adds a ton of value with his legs. He is very good at football, as confirmed by his career-high efficiency numbers in most categories, so there's hope he'll continue to maintain QB1 production. However, we obviously need to lower expectations.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor appeared to be well on his way to a massively productive rookie season when Colts' lead back Marlon Mack went down for the season in Week 1. Instead, the second-round pick has struggled to separate from teammates Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. He has managed only one weekly fantasy finish better than 19th -- and two worse than 36th -- during his last six outings. Taylor's struggles have really been highlighted over the past two weeks, as he trailed Wilkins in snaps in Week 8 and was third-in-line in Week 9, handling a season-low six carries. He has seen two-or-fewer targets in five of his past seven games. If there's good news, the Colts' offense has a fairly light remaining schedule that includes the second-easiest slate for running backs. Taylor remains a shaky flex option, but there's some upside if he reclaims feature-back duties.
Jacksonville Jaguars: James Robinson will undoubtedly be on the short list of MVPs for 2020's fantasy football season, but there are reasons to believe his production will drop off a bit in the second half. For starters, Robinson scored seven touchdowns during his first eight NFL games, which was well above his 3.0 OTD (73rd in the NFL). Robinson ranks sixth at running back in carries (132) and 10th in targets (34), but 35th in OTD and 36th in carries inside-the-five (3). The other major concern with Robinson is that, after facing one of the easiest first-half schedules, he'll face arguably the league's hardest slate beyond Week 13 (Titans, Ravens, Bears, Colts). Robinson's volume will make him impossible to bench, but his red flags suggest you should consider moving him in a trade prior to your deadline.
Kansas City Chiefs: During the first nine weeks of the season, the "unluckiest" player in terms of TD production was Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The 2020 first-round pick has found paydirt only three times -- despite a 7.3 OTD, which is third highest in the NFL. Even if we exclude the rookie's bizarre Week 1 (1 TD, 3.0 OTD), he's fallen well short of expectations (4.3 OTD, 2 TD) in eight other games. Needless to say, Edwards-Helaire will be a good bet to find the end zone more often in the second half, even with Le'Veon Bell in the fold. Since Bell's signing prior to Week 7, Edwards-Helaire has a 1.9 OTD and two touchdowns, compared to a 0.2 OTD and zero scores for his new teammate. The rookie's overall volume surely will be limited by Bell's presence, but a boost in scoring and the Chiefs' elite offense will keep him in the weekly RB2 mix, with room for more.
Las Vegas Raiders: Josh Jacobs is at the midpoint of his second NFL season, and his usage will remind you a lot of what we saw during his rookie campaign. Jacobs is racking up a ton of carries (ranking second with 161), which has allowed him six rushing touchdowns (fourth). His efficiency has dropped off (4.75 YPC/2.25 YAC in 2019, 3.65 YPC/1.60 YAC in 2020), but the heavy volume has allowed him 588 yards (third). That's the good news. The bad news is that, after catching four passes for 46 yards on six targets in Week 1, Jacobs hasn't cleared three targets, four catches, or 25 yards in any game since. That includes a total of just three yards on two targets during his last two games. Jacobs is on pace to blow by his 20-166-0 rookie season receiving line but, based on his recent usage, it won't be by much. Jacobs is fantasy's No. 10-scoring RB, but that's roughly his ceiling moving forward, barring an increase in targets.
Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers seem to have found themselves a franchise quarterback and -- dare I say -- a fantasy QB1. Justin Herbert has thrown for at least 264 yards in all seven of his starts and has put up two-plus touchdowns in five consecutive games. During the seven weeks he has been active, Hebert is fantasy's No. 5-scoring quarterback. That has been powered by 269 pass attempts (third-most among QBs during the span), 2,146 passing yards (fourth), 17 passing touchdowns (fourth), 166 rushing yards (fifth) and a pair of rushing scores (sixth). Herbert is going to be a QB1 play nearly every week moving forward, and that will especially be the case during the fantasy playoffs. With the Falcons (second-most QB fantasy points allowed), Raiders (sixth) and Broncos (eighth) on the docket during Weeks 14-16, Herbert has the second-easiest slate when it counts the most. Keep riding the wave as Herbert cements one of the greatest seasons ever by a rookie quarterback.
Los Angeles Rams: Darrell Henderson Jr. has proved to be one of the more valuable fantasy draft selections of 2020 during an impressive first half, so it may surprise you to know that he actually underachieved in the TD department. Henderson found the end zone four times, but his 6.3 OTD (seventh-highest in the NFL prior to the Rams' Week 9 bye) suggests he should have had even more. Henderson ranked eighth in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (7). The second-year back entered the bye ranked 15th in scrimmage yards (despite minimal passing-game usage) and 21st in fantasy points, so potential TD regression to the mean only adds to his second-half appeal. Consider Los Angeles' lead back to be a borderline RB2.
Miami Dolphins: DeVante Parker had a disappointing first half of the 2020 season, managing only one top-20 fantasy week in eight tries. Parker, who posted five weekly finishes of 37th or worse, has dealt with inconsistent volume, handling seven-plus targets in four games, but a combined total of 14 in the other four outings. Parker has been on the field about as often as he was when he averaged 7.9 targets per game and was fantasy's No. 11-scoring WR in 2019, but he's averaging just 6.1 looks this season and sits 33rd in points. Tua Tagovailoa looked sharp in his second NFL start his past Sunday, so perhaps he'll ignite Parker in the second half of the season. For now, though, Miami's top wideout is no more than a shaky flex option.
Minnesota Vikings: Through Week 9, no player overachieved more in the TD department than Dalvin Cook. Cook has racked up a league-high 13 scores, which nearly doubled his 6.6 OTD. It's a striking gap for a player who entered the season with a career TD total (19) well in range of his OTD (16.1). While Cook can be considered a near lock to score touchdowns at a lower rate in the second half, there's still good news. Cook's 6.6 OTD ranks sixth in the entire NFL and his 11 carries inside-the-five rank second. All that comes despite Cook missing a game due to injury. We'd like to see more targets (just 21 over seven games), but fantasy's No. 2-scoring RB is averaging a ridiculous 5.96 yards per carry -- including a league-best 2.82 after contact. Cook is playing extremely well and seeing enough work in a run-heavy offense that strong RB1 numbers remain likely moving forward.
New England Patriots: Cam Newton has had quite the bizarre season, rushing for eight touchdowns and throwing for only two in seven games. New England is operating the league's run-heaviest offense, which has kept Newton below 175 passing yards in five out of seven games. It's also allowed him a 69-314-8 rushing line and nine-plus carries in six of his seven games. Incredibly, Newton leads the NFL with a 9.0 OTD, which actually suggests he's performing slightly below what is to be expected in this department. Newton is one of five players with 10-plus carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. Newton's usage has led to moderate fantasy success, with five top-11 weeks, but he hasn't finished better than eighth since Week 2. Newton's lack of passing production limits his fantasy upside, but he's a QB2 and occasional streaming option.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints offense had quite a bit of success during the first half of the season, though fantasy contributors have been few and far between, primarily due to injuries. Things could get interesting down the stretch as New Orleans' remaining schedule is arguably the hardest remaining slate for running backs, but one of the easiest for quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Drew Brees is no longer a dominant fantasy quarterback, with zero weekly finishes better than eighth this season. Still, he'll be a viable streaming option on a few occasions moving forward. Even with a tough slate, Alvin Kamara (fantasy's top-scoring RB by 11 points) is too heavily utilized and too good to be downgraded more than slightly. Michael Thomas (28 routes run in his Week 9 return), Emmanuel Sanders (6.8 targets per game) and Jared Cook (four top-10 fantasy weeks in seven games) should all also be viable starters most weeks in 12-team leagues.
New York Giants: Among the top-20 players in targets this season, only two have caught fewer than two touchdowns: Evan Engram and Robby Anderson. Engram hasn't been short on volume, ranking top five at tight end in routes (274), targets (65) and receptions (36), but he hasn't been efficient (six drops, 5.1 YPT). He has also been an obvious disappointment near the goal line. Engram does have one rushing touchdown, but his 2.0 receiving OTD suggests he should have more total scores. The good news is that Engram is trending in the right direction, as he's put together back-to-back top-seven fantasy weeks and five top-13 weeks over his past six games. With a pretty beneficial remaining schedule, he remains a back-end TE1.
New York Jets: Through Week 9, NFL teams totaled 352 carries inside their opponent's 5-yard line. The Jets are responsible for only one of them. In fact, only the Jets and Jaguars (3) have fewer than five. As a result, New York has but three rushing touchdowns (Sam Darnold, La'Mical Perine, Josh Adams) to go along with seven through the air. The lack of rushing touchdowns is far from a surprise in Adam Gase's offense considering that his RB units have combined for only 11 carries inside-the-five over the past three seasons. For perspective, Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL with 13 such carries this season alone. Jets running backs continue to be irrelevant in fantasy and this data helps explain why. Perine is the only one of the bunch worth considering for a roster spot in 12-team leagues, but he's unlikely to emerge as a viable RB2.
Philadelphia Eagles: Travis Fulgham made his Eagles debut in Week 4. Over the subsequent five weeks, the second-year wideout put up a terrific 29-435-4 receiving line on 44 targets. That works out to 97 fantasy points, which was 10 more than any other wide receiver during that span. Fulgham ranked no lower than sixth in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns at his position. The question, of course, is whether or not he can sustain WR1 production. I think the answer is yes, or at least something close to it. Even with Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert back in Week 8, Fulgham played on 93% of Philadelphia's offensive snaps and handled 27% of the targets. That's top-end WR1 usage. Based on fantasy points allowed in the first half, Eagles' wide receivers have the third-easiest schedule from Week 10 on. Fulgham has the look of a potential league winner.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Chase Claypool has the look of yet another gem WR find by the Steelers. Though the future looks bright, the second-round pick is a near lock for TD regression to the mean in the second half. Claypool scored seven touchdowns (fourth-most among wide receivers) during his first eight games, compared to a 2.3 OTD (112th in the NFL) and only two end-zone targets (89 players had more). Claypool has reached five targets in only three of his eight games, but the good news is that two of those have come in the last two games, with the rookie having overtaken James Washington to become one of the Steelers' top three wideouts. Claypool's boom/bust nature and one of the toughest remaining schedules for a wide receiver (after experiencing one of the easiest in the first half) makes him a bit risky, but he's seeing enough work in a high-scoring offense to keep him in the WR3 mix.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers' offense has been overwhelmed with injuries this season and that has included recent early-round draft picks Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel missed Weeks 1-3 and was starting to heat up with the 21st-most WR fantasy points during Weeks 6-7 before missing more time. Aiyuk missed Week 1, was fantasy's No. 21-scoring WR from Weeks 2-8 and then missed Week 9 while on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Samuel may miss one more game, but San Francisco should have this duo healthy for the stretch run. The schedule is fairly tough, but both impressive young receivers will see enough volume to be (at least) in the weekly flex mix.
Seattle Seahawks: At the de facto midway point of the season, the Seahawks are operating the league's most pass-heavy offense (adjusted for game script). It's a far cry from Brian Schottenheimer's run-heavy units of the past and is undoubtedly his most prolific, as it has produced four-plus touchdowns in every single game. Russell Wilson has certainly been a big part of the action, having scored three-plus touchdowns in seven of his eight games. Fantasy's No. 3-scoring quarterback has reached four touchdowns in four games and has thrown for 315-plus yards five times. Wilson's top targets, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, both rank in the top five in WR fantasy points and Chris Carson was fantasy's No. 5-scoring running back during the five weeks where he was a full go. Seattle has a very tough remaining schedule from a fantasy perspective but, even if that costs them a few points, that won't stop Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett, or a healthy Carson from providing strong numbers. There's not much actionable advice here other than "stay the course."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Back in 2018, Tom Brady tossed 29 touchdowns and was fantasy's No. 14-scoring quarterback. He threw only 24 touchdowns and finished 12th in fantasy points last season. The onetime fantasy superstar clearly appeared to be on the verge of falling off the QB1 radar, but the move south to Tampa Bay has provided him with a bit of a rejuvenation. Granted he's yet to see his bye, but Brady currently ranks no lower than sixth in passing attempts (346), completions (226), passing yards (2,398) or passing touchdowns (20). He sits eighth in overall QB fantasy points (14th on a per-game basis), which has been powered by four top-10 weeks. Brady could conceivably be better in the second half now that he has a superstar group of targets, led by Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Additionally, he won't need to deal with cold weather, as his only remaining road games are in Carolina (this week), Atlanta (dome) and Detroit (dome). Brady had a rough night when we last saw him in Week 9, but he's positioned well for back-end QB1 numbers in the second half.
Tennessee Titans: Coming into the 2020 season, we knew that A.J. Brown was going to need more volume if he was going to sustain the strong fantasy production we saw from him during the second half of his rookie season. Well, he's getting it. Brown has been targeted seven-plus times in each of his first six games of the season (8.0 per game). Brown has scored six touchdowns (which includes five games in a row with at least one) and he has had 82-plus receiving yards in three separate games. The scoring is unsustainable (2.4 OTD) but, even in the Titans' run-first scheme, Brown's target volume supplies him with a high floor. Plus, his play-making ability offers a high ceiling. Lock him into your lineups.
Washington Football Team: It hasn't been a great year for Washington, but we shouldn't let that overshadow Terry McLaurin's emergence into one of the game's top wide receivers. He has been heavily targeted, regardless of who has been under center for Washington, handling 9.4 targets per game -- including seven-plus looks in all eight of his outings. McLaurin has reached 83 receiving yards five times and sits 12th in fantasy points, despite "only" scoring three touchdowns (2.5 OTD). McLaurin was drafted by many fantasy managers as a WR2/WR3, but he has upgraded to fringe WR1 status as we head into the second half.