Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which player has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (vs. Texans). Injuries, especially to Mike Evans (a season-ending hamstring) and Chris Godwin (a hamstring that has him questionable at best for Saturday's game), have depleted Winston's array of receivers heading into this extremely favorable matchup. No matter. He scored 13.6 of his 32.7 fantasy points in Week 15 on the 23 snaps played (of 69 total) when Godwin was sidelined, instead leaning heavily on players like Breshad Perriman and Cameron Brate. If Winston and the Buccaneers can thrive while facing weaker passing defenses like that of the Lions, there's no reason to expect any less against the Texans, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points on passes (93.2) in the past five weeks alone. During just the past three weeks, Tom Brady scored 24.3 points (Week 13), Drew Lock 23.9 (Week 14) and Ryan Tannehill 24.2 (Week 15) against Houston. Keep in mind that those three players, for the season, have averaged just 16.5, 14.4 and 18.3 points per game, respectively.
Unfavorable matchup: Josh Allen, Bills (at Patriots). He's the No. 6 quarterback for the season in terms of fantasy points (267.7), but due to a brutal schedule, he has scored only 69.6 of those points in the past four weeks, during which time he ranks only 11th at his position. Allen draws yet another poor matchup in Week 16, against a Patriots team that has been the toughest against quarterbacks (when adjusted for schedule) for the season, totaling minus-6.4 adjusted fantasy points added. The Patriots have struggled in only one regard against quarterbacks. They've allowed 34.6 fantasy points on rushing plays, or 26.5% of their total. Even accounting for Allen's skill in that regard, he managed only 8.7 points the last time these teams battled, in Week 4. He's someone to avoid, as is his counterpart for the Patriots, Tom Brady. Neither began my week ranked among my top 20 quarterbacks.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Marlon Mack, Colts (vs. Panthers). If his meager fantasy production over the past two weeks concerns you, it shouldn't. At least, not when he's lined up for a matchup like this one, which substantially boosts his rebound potential. In fact, there's a realistic chance that Mack, who scored just 1.9 PPR fantasy points against the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 15, could see a boost of 25-plus points from one week to the next -- a rare enough feat that only seven running backs can claim that accomplishment in 2019. That's how much the Panthers have struggled to contain the run, despite their apparent talent on paper.
Carolina has allowed four different running backs 80-plus yards and a rushing score, including at least one in each of the past three weeks. In the past four weeks, they've allowed six running backs to amass 60-plus yards and a score on the ground. Working particularly in Mack's favor is the Panthers' 44.8% conversion rate allowed in terms of touchdowns on goal-to-go rushing plays, as well as their league-most 13 rushing scores allowed in those situations. Mack is the Colts' go-to back at the goal line, after all, with 10 of their running backs' 17 total carries on goal-to-go plays.
Unfavorable matchup: Todd Gurley II, Rams (at 49ers). While he is coming off his season high for percentage of offensive snaps played (97%) and has had all three of his 20-plus-touch games in the past five weeks, Gurley is a player who concerns me from a volume standpoint over these next two weeks. With the Rams' painful loss to the Cowboys in Week 15, they're a long shot to make the postseason, so game flow will be particularly relevant for the oft-injured running back in this critical divisional matchup. After all, he has played on only 75% of the Rams' offensive snaps this season after playing on 85% in his 14 healthy games in 2018. His 16.7 touches per game is a far cry from the 22.5 he averaged a year ago. The Rams are already keeping him on a snap count, and an early deficit might end his day prematurely.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have been the league's hottest defense against the run -- not that they've ever been short of elite, with a third-best minus-5.9 adjusted fantasy points added against running backs for the full year -- having held Aaron Jones to 3.8 PPR fantasy points (Week 12), Mark Ingram II to 8.2 points (Week 13), Alvin Kamara to 6.3 (Week 14) and Devonta Freeman to 7.5 (Week 15) over the past four weeks. Those are the Nos. 4, 10, 11 and 21 running backs in total PPR fantasy points for the season.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Tyler Boyd, Bengals (at Dolphins). No defense has struggled more against wide receivers during the past five weeks than the Dolphins, whose 246.5 PPR fantasy points against are the most in the NFL. Bear in mind that for the season, they've allowed the third-most points per target (2.0). During that five-week span, they've allowed double-digit fantasy performances to James Washington (18.8 points in Week 12), Robby Anderson (17.1, Week 13), N'Keal Harry (11.7, Week 15) and Hunter Renfrow (11.6, Week 11). The Dolphins' 113.9 PPR fantasy points given up to slot receivers over the past five weeks is seventh highest, which is important considering that Boyd has run 58% of his routes out of the slot this season. I want a piece of the Bengals' passing game this week, and Boyd seems like the smartest way to get it.
Unfavorable matchup: Allen Robinson II, Bears (vs. Chiefs). For the season, the Chiefs have been both the sixth-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for wide receivers overall (minus-3.8 adjusted fantasy points added) and the sixth-toughest for WR1s (minus-1.5), allowing only seven 15-point PPR fantasy performances to the position all year (with four of those outings occurring in September). Much of Kansas City's success can be attributed to cornerback Charvarius Ward, whose 66.4 passer rating allowed when he is the nearest defender is 30th best among the 144 players who have at least 250 coverage snaps. He'll likely be the player most often aligned with Robinson in coverage. Robinson has put together a productive past four weeks, totaling 89.0 PPR fantasy points on 44 targets, but he has struggled this season when lined up with some of the game's better cornerbacks.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (vs. Texans). One of the season's biggest disappointments, Howard has seen his role inch upward in the past three weeks. He might take a significant step forward on Saturday, given the Buccaneers' aforementioned injuries at wide receiver. From Weeks 13 to 15, Howard averaged 10.3 PPR fantasy points, and his three greatest single-game target shares (20%, Week 15; 18%, Week 13; and 16%, Week 10) have all come in the past six weeks. He's a sizable target that Winston might need to rely on more in the red zone, and that's an important angle to consider when evaluating this matchup. The Texans, who allowed a 16.7 PPR fantasy-point game to Jonnu Smith in Week 15 and 21.3 points to Noah Fant in Week 14, have surrendered four catches for 47 yards and three touchdowns on six targets to tight ends in red zone situations over the past five weeks. That's worth 26.7 of the Houston defense's 98.7 PPR TE fantasy points allowed overall during that time, third most in the league.
Unfavorable matchup: Jack Doyle, Colts (vs. Panthers). Among the known commodities at tight end, there isn't a "must-avoid" type in Week 16, unless you consider Doyle one in the wake of Eric Ebron's season-ending ankle injury. Doyle does have a 21% target share in the three games since Ebron was placed on injured reserve, but he also had disappointing 4.7 (Week 14) and 4.1 PPR fantasy totals (Week 15) over the past two weeks. There's little doubt he'll continue to be targeted almost as often as anyone in the lineup -- T.Y. Hilton's health, of course, always has a say in exactly how much -- but Doyle will probably struggle to find openings against a Panthers defense far better against the pass than the run. The Panthers have allowed only four double-digit TE fantasy games all year, and in the red zone, where Doyle generates a lot of his value for our purposes, they've allowed tight ends only a 44% completion rate (fourth lowest) and 19.0 PPR fantasy points (second fewest).