Success in daily fantasy comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are the week's best buys?
Each week, I'll go through every position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool. And while things may change from the time I write this article until game time, I'll do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals: Arizona has provided a safe landing spot for pretty much all quarterbacks who have played them, with an increased floor and ceiling this season. The Cardinals have allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks per game (24.05) on the back of 290.4 passing yards per game, 2.4 touchdowns and 3.6 red zone completions allowed on a per game basis -- all league-worst numbers. Wilson has been fantastic this season with a much-improved supporting cast. DK Metcalf has progressed faster than many had dreamed he could, Tyler Lockett has been outstanding, and Seattle now boasts a strong running game. Wilson ranks second in red zone passes this season and has had three-plus TD passes in three of his past four home divisional games.
Dak Prescott ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: This game looks to be extremely close and competitive while also carrying a healthy total. It is on my short list of potential high-scoring affairs in Week 16. Prescott is someone you're going to want to roster because of how susceptible the Eagles are to getting shredded by opposing receivers. Prescott has averaged 300.5 passing yards per game over his past eight road games. He's also had three-plus passing touchdowns in his past four road victories.
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Carson Wentz ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys: Wentz has thrown multiple TD passes in three straight games for the first time this season. He should benefit from a spike in tempo against Dallas. The Eagles are 20th in pace, but the Cowboys rank fourth in that category.
Philip Rivers ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are allowing a league-high 8.49 yards per passing attempt this season, which is the second-highest rate of the decade behind only the 2015 Saints (8.74).
Running backs
Christian McCaffrey ($10,100 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts: McCaffrey now has an active five-game streak of games with seven-plus catches, joining only Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas as players who have had a streak that long this season. McCaffery also has six games with 19-plus carries and six catches this season. Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, Le'Veon Bell and Dalvin Cook have combined for six such games.
Joe Mixon ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: I have admittedly not played enough Mixon over the past month and a half while the Bengals have been feeding him heaps of volume, a regrettable decision. This week, however, I'm not going to be left out in the cold with someone else getting Mixon's workload against the Dolphins. He's had 54 touches over the past two weeks, including steady (but not massive) usage in the pass game. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most RB DraftKings points and the fourth-most rushing yards per game. Mixon has been solid and consistent with at least 110 rushing yards or a touchdown in seven of his past eight games.
Melvin Gordon ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders: For the first time in over a calendar year, Gordon has had five catches in two consecutive games. He's also had at least 4.0 yards per carry in six straight games after failing to meet that threshold in his first four games this season.
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Leonard Fournette ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons: Fournette is a buy-low option this week as he currently sits at his lowest price on DraftKings in two months due to a recent slump. Since Week 6, Atlanta is allowing 6.4 RB receptions per game and Fournette has logged eight games with at least five catches.
DeAndre Washington ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel), Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: With the news that Josh Jacobs is out for Week 16, Washington immediately becomes the top value on the slate because of the volume-price combination. In his lone start of the season (replacing Jacobs in Week 14 against Tennessee), Washington played on 40 of 63 snaps and saw 20 touches. Under Jon Gruden, the Raiders certainly try to feed massive volume to their running backs. That didn't change the last time Jacobs sat out and shouldn't in Week 16.
Wide receivers
Julio Jones ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: We expected that the absence of Calvin Ridley would affect Jones' usage in a positive manner -- but Week 15 was just absurd. Julio got a whopping 51.3% of Atlanta's targets last week against San Francisco, which is certainly not sustainable. However, he should continue to carry a bit more usage than he saw over the first 14 weeks as well as some increased red zone usage. He had two end zone targets last week after seeing a total of just two end zone targets from Weeks 4 to 14. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has been a complete mess for the past two months. We can lean on Jones as a high-priced option at receiver this week with all the value available at running back.
Terry McLaurin ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel), Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants: McLaurin has been one of my favorite tournament plays all season long, due to his amazing volume in both the red zone and end zone on top of his big-play ability. Washington's QB play has been what's held him back from having a great floor from week to week. Dwayne Haskins has missed him numerous times on both long and short throws over the past month. The matchup this week is great against the Giants, who have allowed the sixth-most WR points on DraftKings -- including a touchdown on 12.8% of their deep passes, the highest-rate in the NFL. Ten different receivers have scored more than 22 DK points against the Giants this season, so this is one of those weeks that McLaurin is in play.
Mike Williams ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders: Williams has the reputation as a boom-or-bust player because of how TD-dependent he seems to be, but his floor has been very solid over the past two months. Seven straight games of 55-plus receiving yards will do that for a player, and only Julio Jones has a longer active streak. Oakland has been a team to stream receivers against all year and has allowed 10 different wideouts to score 20-plus DraftKings points this season. With his recent usage, the matchup and the TD equity he brings every week due to red zone and end zone targets, Williams is priced way too low on DraftKings in Week 16.
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Courtland Sutton ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions: Nine different wide receivers have surpassed 20 DraftKings points against Detroit, including a season-high 37.6 from Breshad Perriman in Week 15.
Chris Conley ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons: With seven-plus targets in four of his past six games, Conley has averaged 14.2 air yards per target. The Falcons are allowing the ninth-most yards per deep completion this season. If DJ Chark Jr. is out once again, Conley becomes a very chalky option in Week 16.
Greg Ward Jr. ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys: Ward has been targeted on 21.7% of his routes over the past two weeks, resulting in nine targets in both games. Carson Wentz has been forced to throw lately, and injuries have pressed Ward into action -- and fantasy relevance.
Tight ends
Austin Hooper ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Very simply put, Hooper's price on DraftKings has to be a mistake. When healthy, he brings a tremendous floor of targets into every game. It only gets boosted due to the Calvin Ridley injury. Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most yards per play, the third-most yards per reception and the fifth-highest TD rate to opposing tight ends. As such, Hooper becomes one of the best floor/ceiling combinations at the position. However, he still sits at a price that's $1,500-$2,000 less than comparable players at the position.
Jacob Hollister ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals: Tight ends with four-plus targets against the Cardinals this season have averaged 17.3 DraftKings points. Since becoming a starter in Week 7, Hollister is averaging 5.6 targets per game. Add to the mix that Seattle has the highest implied team total on the slate and this is a very solid selection.
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Zach Ertz ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is allowing opponents to complete 74.3% of TE targets this season, tied with Arizona for the highest rate in the NFL. Ertz has seen double-digit targets in five of his past six games, due in no small part to all the injuries to the Eagles' WR corps.
Defenses
My philosophy for picking defenses in DFS is simple: Defensive touchdowns are extremely difficult to predict. The greatest predictor of defensive scoring is the ability to put pressure on the opposing passer, so I look for teams that have a pressure advantage against an overmatched offensive line. Pressure leads to sacks, fumbles and interceptions, which can turn into touchdowns.
Denver Broncos ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), vs. Lions
Washington Redskins ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel), vs. Giants
Oakland Raiders ($2,300 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel), at Chargers
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter and user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He might also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.