Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Unfavorable matchup: Sam Darnold, New York Jets (versus New England Patriots). He played a major part in the Jets' Week 6 upset of the Dallas Cowboys, his 72% completion rate third-best and 338 passing yards second-best in his 15-game NFL career to date, and has one of the more favorable rest-of-season schedules among quarterbacks. This particular matchup, however, is as poor as he could ask, against a Patriots defense that has limited opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 33.0 fantasy points total in six games. Yes, the Patriots' schedule has been extremely favorable, including matchups against Ryan Fitzpatrick (minus-1.8 fantasy points in his Week 2 start), Luke Falk (1.9 in Week 3) and Colt McCoy (4.3 in Week 4), but this team also limited Ben Roethlisberger to 9.7 points in the season opener, picked off Josh Allen three times in Week 4 and has been the sixth-best schedule-adjusted defense against the position.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders (at Green Bay Packers). The Packers' defense has enjoyed a solid start to its season, especially against the pass, where the team has the fifth-best passer rating allowed thus far (77.0). That said, it has struggled quite a bit containing the run, best evidenced by having surrendered a rushing touchdown to each of its past five opponents along with seven rushing touchdowns combined to running backs during that time span. This is the defense that made Phillip Lindsay look like a star in Week 3, and while it did keep Ezekiel Elliott and Kerryon Johnson somewhat in check the past two weeks, those two did combine for a respectable 31.2 PPR fantasy points in the process. Jacobs, meanwhile, is coming off his breakout game, a 29.3 point Week 5 performance that looks all the more impressive if you consider it came against a generally sound Chicago Bears defense. That he totaled seven targets in his past three games also eases any worry about game script.
Unfavorable matchup: David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (versus New Orleans Saints). His production has been less than stellar thus far, but one would assume that, fresh off the bye, Montgomery might see a small uptick in workload in Week 7. That he has accrued 73% of the team's running back carries (69-of-95) only furthers that argument. A Saints matchup, though, is one of the least appealing right now, especially with the team playing much-improved defense during the past three weeks. Specifically against running backs, they held Leonard Fournette to 17.8 PPR fantasy points on 26 total touches in Week 6, and Ezekiel Elliott to 16.5 points on 24 total touches in Week 4. During that time, the Saints have allowed a 4.0 yards-per-carry average rushing, 13th-best in the league.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (at New York Giants). Most any wide receiver set to face the Giants should be due for strong fantasy totals, being that they've allowed the fourth-most PPR fantasy points to the position overall (257.7) and most to WR1s specifically (138.5). Part of that can be attributed to poor play by Janoris Jenkins, regarded in the preseason as the team's best cover corner, but the truth is that the Giants' secondary struggles all over the field. They've allowed the fifth-highest passer rating to opposing slot receivers thus far (118.7), and specifically have struggled to rein in Randall Cobb (16.9 points, Week 1), Mike Evans (45.0 points, Week 3) and Adam Thielen (32.0, Week 5), all of whom had big plays in those particular games when lined up out of the slot. This season, Fitzgerald has run 91% of his routes out of the slot, scoring 63.9 of his 89.7 total PPR fantasy points from there.
Unfavorable matchup: Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears (versus New Orleans Saints). He's another member of the Bears' offense to avoid wherever possible, and in fact faces a more difficult matchup than the aforementioned Montgomery, due to likely shadow coverage from Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. After a slow start, Lattimore has been outstanding in the past two weeks, allowing only three catches on 12 targets for 48 yards and no touchdowns with one interception and five passes defensed. During that time, Mike Evans was held scoreless on three targets (Week 5), and DJ Chark Jr. was limited to 7.3 PPR fantasy points on seven targets. Robinson, meanwhile, has struggled when matched up against the elite cornerbacks in the league: He scored 8.1 PPR fantasy points against Chris Harris Jr. and the Denver Broncos and 14.7 points against Xavier Rhodes and the Minnesota Vikings.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers (versus Oakland Raiders). While there is talk that Graham's role might dwindle in the coming weeks, his recent usage wouldn't suggest it, as he played 71% of the Packers' offensive snaps the past two weeks combined (95-of-134) and was targeted a total of eight times. This could, however, be a make-or-break game for the veteran tight end, and a Raiders matchup is about as favorable for that as he could ask. The Raiders haven't faced many elite tight ends, but nevertheless served up 23.7 PPR fantasy points to Travis Kelce in Week 2 and 24.0 points combined to Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron in Week 4, while for the season allowing the eighth-most points per target to the position (2.0).
Unfavorable matchup: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (versus Minnesota Vikings). Looking at the Vikings' raw PPR fantasy point totals afforded to the tight end position, one might not think of them as an unfavorable matchup. After all, Austin Hooper scored 16.7 points against them in Week 1, Darren Waller 27.1 in Week 3 and Evan Engram 10.7 in Week 5, but if you keep in mind that the trio was targeted a total of 34 times, their totals are more understandable. For the season, the Vikings have seen a league-high 64 targets to the tight end position, and with them they've allowed only 1.3 PPR fantasy points per target, second-lowest behind only the 49ers' 1.2. Hockenson simply hasn't been getting enough looks to turn in a productive score against a defense this tough.