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Shadow Report: Key WR/CB battles for Week 7

Kyusung Gong/AP Photo

By using our NFL play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 7 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out my weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Advantageous matchups

Cowboys' Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup vs. Eagles' TBA cornerbacks

Cooper is questionable for Sunday night's showdown with the Eagles, but Dallas' No. 1 wide receiver has a mouthwatering matchup if he's able to go. Cooper went for 6 catches-75 yards-0 touchdowns on 10 targets and 10-217-3 on 13 targets in his two matchups with Philadelphia last season. Regardless of Cooper's status, Gallup is in the same situation as a heavily targeted perimeter receiver against the Eagles' leaky secondary.

Eagles "starting" perimeter corners Jalen Mills (physically unable to perform list) and Ronald Darby (out since Week 4) returned to practice this week but aren't locks to play. Replacements Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones have struggled big time. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and specifically to perimeter receivers. In fact, Philadelphia has allowed the third-most yards (1,214), most receiving touchdowns (11), most end zone targets (22) and fifth-highest YPR (14.8) to the position.

If Cooper is out, Devin Smith or Cedrick Wilson will replace him on the outside and the starter will make for a deep sleeper. Note that Randall Cobb (or Tavon Austin if Cobb remains out) won't get as much of a boost because the Eagles allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the slot.

Colts' T.Y. Hilton vs. Texans' Lonnie Johnson Jr. and Johnathan Joseph

Hilton owns the Texans. In 15 career games against the AFC South rival, he's put up 81 catches, 1,530 yards and nine touchdowns on 130 targets. Hilton reached 78 yards in 11 of the 15 games, including seven 100-yard showings. Hilton put up receiving lines of 4-115-0, 9-199-0 and 5-85-0 in three games against Houston last season. As if that's not enough, Houston has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the second-most to perimeter receivers this season. The Texans have surrendered the third-most receptions (88) and sixth-most touchdowns (eight) to wideouts. Hilton (70% perimeter) and Deon Cain (96%) should both be upgraded.

Rams' Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks vs. Falcons' Damontae Kazee, Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver

The Rams might be slumping, but each member of their big three at wide receiver currently sits top-35 in fantasy points. The unit has an opportunity for a big Week 7, as the Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. That includes the fifth-most to perimeter receivers on the season and the most over the past four weeks. That's good news for Woods (63% perimeter) and Cooks (74%). Atlanta has also also allowed the 11th-most to the slot, which bodes well for Kupp (76% slot). Despite wide receivers combining for 503 routes (fourth-fewest) and 109 targets (10th-fewest) against Atlanta, they've posted a receiving line of 83-1,182-10, all of which rank no lower than sixth. Atlanta is allowing 10.8 yards per target (second-highest) and a 76% catch rate (highest) to the position. Upgrade all three receivers.

Patriots' Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett vs. Jets' Darryl Roberts and Trumaine Johnson

The Jets have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season, including the fifth-most to left perimeter receivers, which is where Roberts aligns 90% of the time and Gordon on 50% of his routes. Gordon (83% perimeter) and Dorsett (59%) will see Roberts and benched-then-reinstated Johnson during most of Monday's AFC East showdown. Both should be upgraded against the struggling duo, and that will be the case for Jakobi Meyers if Gordon or Dorsett is out. Brian Poole has played pretty well in the slot for New York, but heavily targeted Julian Edelman is still a good play. Edelman posted lines of 4-84-1 and 5-69-1 against the Jets last season.

Other notable upgrades:

Tough matchups

Jets' Robby Anderson vs. Patriots' Stephon Gilmore (shadow) and both Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas vs. Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson and Jason McCourty

There are a lot of names here, but let's start with the probable shadow scenario. Anderson has caught 14 of 38 targets for 144 yards and zero touchdowns on 213 career routes (seven games) against New England. That includes a Week 3 game earlier this season in which he posted a 3-11-0 receiving line on five targets. New England has shadowed Anderson with either Gilmore or Malcolm Butler each of the past five meetings between these teams, and we should expect Gilmore to follow him around in Week 7.

The Patriots have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including the fewest to perimeter receivers. Incredibly, they've allowed one touchdown reception to wide receivers this season, as well as only 729 yards (second-fewest). In turn, we'll also need to downgrade Crowder against Jones in the slot and Thomas against McCourty and Jackson opposite Anderson/Gilmore. Crowder was held to a 2-25-0 line in the Week 3 meeting. Thomas didn't play. Ideally, all three Jets wide receivers would be on benches in Week 7.

Bears' Allen Robinson vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore (shadow)

Lattimore has been very effective while shadowing the opposing team's No. 1 wide receiver in each of the past three weeks. Lattimore shadowed Amari Cooper in Week 4 (5-48-0 receiving line in the game), Mike Evans in Week 5 (3-0-0) and DJ Chark in Week 6 (3-43-0). This weekend, expect the young corner to travel with Chicago's No. 1 WR, Robinson. Though this is a scary matchup for Robinson, note that he aligns in the slot 42% of the time, whereas Lattimore does so only 4% of the time. Robinson should draw slot CB Patrick Robinson enough to put together a few receptions (New Orleans is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the slot), though he might not generate much production the 58% of the time he's on the perimeter. He's a shaky WR3 and best avoided in DFS this weekend.

Vikings' Stefon Diggs vs. Lions' Darius Slay (shadow) and Adam Thielen vs. Rashaan Melvin (shadow)

This one isn't clear-cut, but my guess is 6-foot Slay will shadow 6-foot Diggs and 6-foot-2 Melvin will, in turn, travel with 6-foot-2 Thielen. Thielen is Minnesota's best wide receiver, but he aligns in the slot more than Diggs (31% to 15%), which is the main reason Slay has never shadowed him. Instead, Slay has shadowed Diggs during each of the past three games between these teams when both were active. He had some decent success, with Diggs posting a 2-10-1 line in a 2018 Week 16 meeting and 5-98-0 and 5-66-0 lines during two 2017 showdowns. Thielen, meanwhile, totaled nine catches, 102 yards and one touchdown in two games against Detroit last season.

Of course, who shadows whom might not matter much. Though Slay is the more intimidating presence, Melvin has been solid on the other side of the field this season. Detroit is allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers and, more important, 6.8 yards per target (third-lowest) and a 54% catch rate (fourth-lowest) to wide receivers this season.

Titans' Corey Davis vs. Chargers' Casey Hayward (shadow)

As usual, Hayward has been busy operating as a shadow corner this season. He's already traveled with Marvin Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Courtland Sutton full time and T.Y. Hilton and JuJu Smith-Schuster on perimeter routes. Hayward has been terrific, and the Chargers are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including the eighth-fewest to perimeter receivers. Davis' target share is down this season, but he's still Tennessee's No. 1 receiver and can expect the Hayward shadow treatment. These teams faced off in Week 7 last season and Hayward shadowed Davis on a majority of his routes. Davis was limited to a 3-10-0 receiving line on seven targets in the game.

As for Tennessee's other receivers, it's worth noting that Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-fewest receptions (63) and fifth-fewest yards (784) to the position but also 9.2 yards per target (sixth-highest) and a 74% catch rate (third-highest). That adds some optimism for A.J. Brown opposite Davis, but slot man Adam Humphries should be downgraded against Desmond King. King has been targeted on only 10% of his coverage snaps, and the Chargers are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the slot.

Redskins' Terry McLaurin, Paul Richardson and Trey Quinn vs. 49ers' Richard Sherman and K'Waun Williams

The 49ers have been dominant against wide receivers this season, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position as a whole, as well as the seventh-fewest to the perimeter and fifth-fewest to the slot. They've allowed only 45 receptions to the position (fewest on a per-game basis) and 635 receiving yards (third-fewest). McLaurin has been outstanding as a rookie, but he and fellow perimeter WR Richardson will be very risky DFS plays against Sherman and either Ahkello Witherspoon or Emmanuel Moseley. Quinn should be well off your radar against Williams, who has been targeted on only 13% of his coverage snaps this season.

Other notable downgrades:

Other potential shadow matchups

If the Dolphins' Xavien Howard returns from injury this weekend, expect him to shadow top Bills WR John Brown. Howard struggled a bit out of the gate this season but was targeted at a below-average rate and has shutdown capabilities. Brown will need to be downgraded if Howard plays, but he can be upgraded along with the rest of the Bills' wideouts if Howard is out.

The Broncos' Chris Harris Jr. has shadowed Allen Robinson, Davante Adams and Keenan Allen at least part time this season, so there's a decent chance he'll travel with Chiefs' Tyreek Hill on Thursday night. Considering that Harris hasn't spent much time in the slot and that Hill moves around the formation so often, it's unlikely that this will result in anything close to full-time shadowing. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, however, so this is something to be aware of when evaluating Hill, Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson.

Ravens' Marlon Humphrey figures to travel with Seahawks' Tyler Lockett at times this weekend, as he did with slot receivers Tyler Boyd, Sammy Watkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster earlier this season. Of course, Lockett is moved around a ton and aligns inside 70% of the time, so this shouldn't be considered a major concern spot. Baltimore is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

The Packers will certainly be prioritizing Raiders' Tyrell Williams in coverage this weekend, but figuring out who will cover him is tricky. Jaire Alexander is the team's No. 1 corner, but at 5-foot-11, he's been tasked with shadowing the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor and Marvin Jones this season. Meanwhile, 6-foot-3 Kevin King has shadowed the larger Courtland Sutton, Alshon Jeffery and Kenny Golladay, respectively, during those three games. Of course, when the Packers faced Dallas in Week 5, Alexander covered Amari Cooper, with King assigned to the slightly smaller Michael Gallup. Williams checks in at 6-foot-4, so the best bet is that King will cover him, leaving Alexander to handle the likes of newcomer Zay Jones, old friend Trevor Davis and slot man Hunter Renfrow. Alexander has been the better corner this season, so this outcome would be ideal for Williams, but it's obviously no sure thing. That said, think twice before choosing Williams for a spot in your DFS lineup this weekend.