We all saw what Jimmy Garoppolo did in 2017 after the midseason trade from New England to San Francisco. Five straight wins to close out the year. A league-leading QBR of 79.9 from Weeks 13 to 17. And 82.78 total fantasy points, good for QB8 during that stretch. But the sample size is still small on Jimmy G., and he can be even better in 2018.
Here's where I think Garoppolo and three other young quarterbacks can take the next step for fantasy managers based on their projected floors, ceilings, breakout potential and more.
Highest floor: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
To get an idea of the immediate impact Garoppolo had in Kyle Shanahan's offense, check out the jump in the yards per play for the 49ers. In Weeks 1-12, San Francisco averaged only 4.90 yards per play (No.24 in the NFL). However, once Garoppolo got the ball, the 49ers raced to 6.10 yards per play, which ranked No. 4 in the NFL from Weeks 13 to 17. That's an increase of 24.5 percent in yards per play with a quarterback who showed up in the middle of the season.
Now, picture Garoppolo going through the entire offseason process with the 49ers in a system that is tailor-made for his skill set. The quick game. The play-action. The intermediate cuts that break inside of the numbers. And the matchups that Shanahan can create using wide receivers, tight ends and the running back position. Think "targets" here over the positions listed in the game-day program, with some upgrades shuffled into the mix as well.
In addition to what we saw in 2017 with the production/speed from wide receiver Marquise Goodwin (56 receptions, 926 yards, two touchdowns) and the formation versatility of tight end George Kittle (43 receptions, 515 yards, two touchdowns), veteran wide receiver Pierre Garcon is now back from injury. He can be a target monster in this system with his consistent hands and toughness. From 2014 to '17, Garcon dropped just three of 387 targets. That's the lowest rate of 110 qualified receivers in that time frame. Run the slant, the quick out, hit the corner route and move the sticks across the middle. Feed him the ball.
New running back Jerick McKinnon? He's a super fit for the Shanahan system. McKinnon can be that receiving weapon out of the backfield, similar to Falcons running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman during Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl run in Shanahan's offense. And despite never having a backfield to himself, McKinnon is one of just six running backs with at least 150 rushes and 40 catches the past two seasons. He can handle an uptick in volume while utilizing those underneath quicks as a route runner to create high-percentage options for Garoppolo in the passing game.
Given the Shanahan system, plus Garoppolo's quality game tape over that final five-game run last season, the 49ers' quarterback is in a position to produce consistent numbers in '18. That's why I see Garoppolo carrying a high floor into the season as my current QB9, with room to climb the ranks as a starter in all league formats.
Most upside: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
With limited reps during the 2017 season, we don't have a ton of tape here with Mahomes. However, just look at the playmakers in Kansas City and the creativity of Andy Reid. There's the fit I need when projecting the enormous talent of Mahomes in the Chiefs' offense.
The arm strength is off the charts. Ridiculous stuff that also meshes with the vertical passing game -- and speed -- in the K.C. offense. In Tyreek Hill's two NFL seasons, the wide receiver has caught 15 passes of 35-plus yards, which ranks second only to Brandin Cooks. New wideout Sammy Watkins? Since he entered the league in 2014, Watkins ranks sixth of 174 qualified players in air yards per target. And don't forget about Travis Kelce as a vertical/seam option. He leads all tight ends with 28 receptions on passes thrown 15-plus yards in the air since the beginning of the 2016 season.
But in addition to those deep shots, Mahomes can really flourish in Reid's system -- which will adapt to maximize the production from the QB position. That means West Coast passing. Rhythm and timing on inside breaking routes and the three-step game. You want play-action and RPOs too? Yeah, I see that as another aspect to the game plan with Mahomes. Pair the run game with Kareem Hunt to throw the screens, inside pop passes and more.
Plus, the QB-designed runs will be in play as well. Mahomes rushed for 22 touchdowns during his final two seasons at Texas Tech. And we saw how that worked with Alex Smith in Kansas City. Use the zone-read to pull the rock when the ball is inside the plus-10-yard line. Sprinkle those into the call sheet to cater even more to Mahomes in addition to what he can do outside of the pocket when plays break down. Tuck it and go.
Some concerns? Sure. The Chiefs' quarterback has started one NFL game. And while Mahomes played well in that spot with a limited supporting cast on the field, there will be some moments when his inexperience shows on the tape. And that means interceptions when talking about quarterbacks. But with that I see some legit opportunity for Mahomes to produce quickly under Reid. He has the playmaking talent around him, the system will mesh with his skill set and the run game is there with Hunt to facilitate even more open windows in the passing game.
For managers who want to stock up on wide receivers, running backs and possibly a tight end early in their drafts, keep Mahomes on the radar late. I drafted the Chiefs' quarterback at the end of the 11th round in our 12-team, PPR Fantasy Summit mock draft. And given the depth of the QB position, I'm willing to take a shot on the upside of Mahomes in deeper leagues. There is breakout potential here.
Biggest sleeper: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Coming off a 2017 season in which he threw only 13 touchdown passes compared to 15 interceptions, I can see the hesitation in targeting Mariota. However, I love the dual-threat talent with the Tennessee quarterback, and the new system under coordinator Matt LaFleur is going to take the Titans into the modern world of pro football.
When projecting a spike in passing efficiency with Mariota, we can look at the rapid development of quarterback Jared Goff under LaFleur last season in Los Angeles. Playing in a Rams offense that produced the second-most red zone drives behind the Patriots, Goff averaged 8.00 yards per pass attempt and 4.00 touchdowns per interception in 2017. And that's a big jump from the 5.03 yards per pass attempt and 0.71 touchdowns per interception in 2016.
This is a great example of coaching and growth at the position, along with the installation of a playbook that caters to the quarterback. I see that as a fit for Mariota given his ability to win with accuracy, touch and anticipation in a proven offense, along with his skill set as a runner. Mariota is only one of four quarterbacks in the NFL who have rushed for at least 60 attempts in the past two seasons. That's a bump for fantasy managers in an offense that will get a boost from a new-look Titans backfield and the upside in the passing targets for Mariota.
This season, Dion Lewis joins Derrick Henry in the backfield, giving LaFleur more opportunities to call play-action passes. The Rams ranked ninth last season in the number of play-action passes thrown. With Lewis now in the mix to pair with the downhill style of Henry, the quality of play-action attempts should improve in Tennessee. Run the ball with more production and set up those second- and third-level windows for Mariota to attack.
Along with the ultra-consistency of tight end Delanie Walker -- 233 receptions over the past three seasons -- I really like the potential of 2017 first-round pick Corey Davis. Yes, injuries limited his rookie development, but I go to the Week 16 tape versus the Rams (six receptions, 91 yards) or the divisional playoff game in New England (five receptions, 63 yards, two touchdowns) to evaluate Davis' ceiling. That's where I saw the flashes of a No. 1 wide receiver who can mesh with the route running of Rishard Matthews (53 receptions, 795 yards, four touchdowns in '17) and the upside/speed of second-year pro Taywan Taylor.
Yeah, I am betting on both Davis and Taylor making a jump in development from Year 1 to Year 2, but I'm also betting on an offense that will finally unlock the true talent of Mariota as a rhythm passer with the dual-threat ability to slash through defenses. Mariota should be rostered in all leagues and he has the sleeper potential to find his way into starting lineups this season in 12-team formats.
Biggest wild card: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
We saw some flashes of talent from Trubisky in 2017 -- the athleticism, accuracy on the move, arm velocity, deep ball ability -- but it was hard to grade the young quarterback given the situation in Chicago. The system was archaic, the options in the passing game were extremely limited and Trubisky's numbers -- 59.4 completion percentage, seven touchdown passes, seven interceptions, 29.2 total QBR -- didn't exactly point to a steady climb in development.
However, with new head coach Matt Nagy bringing over a system that meshes the pro and college games together, plus major upgrades for Trubisky in the passing game, the second-year pro is in a great position to take a monster leap forward in total fantasy production this season.
Want a feel for the new Bears offense? Check out the tape in Kansas City or Philadelphia. That's where you will see the quick game, inside vertical shots, heavy play-pass and the RPOs that trace back to the mechanics Trubisky used at UNC. It's time to put this young QB in a tempo-based system that will allow him to use his natural traits with the accuracy and anticipation to dice up inside throwing windows. And the upgrades around him are legit.
No. 1 wide receiver Allen Robinson is a route technician with the 6-foot-3 frame to go up and get it. This is a wide receiver who led the NFL with 18 red zone touchdowns from 2015 to '16. Move tight end (or slot tight end) Trey Burton caught five touchdowns last season for the Eagles and the skill set/fit is there for the free-agent signing to create matchups in the Chicago route tree. Taylor Gabriel? Straight speed on the outside. And rookie Anthony Miller has drawn some comps to Seahawks stud Doug Baldwin.
That's a solid offseason haul for the Bears to rebuild around Trubisky, and running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen both return. Howard is going to play a role in that play-action/RPO game for Nagy. Think inside zone looks with Trubisky pulling the rock to rip the ball between the hashes. And Cohen can be that "joker" in the Bears' offense, a dynamic threat who was targeted on 34 percent of his routes as a rookie. He's an electric guy in space with real matchup potential.
Like Mahomes in K.C., Trubisky is playing for a coach who will mold the playbook around his talent. And while he is still a wild card at this point based off his rookie tape, Trubisky should be rostered in all leagues because of the potential of this offense in Chicago. The arrow is pointing up here.