We see it every year: players making a quantum leap in production. Sometimes that production is sustained for a full season, other times it's for merely a stretch of the 16-game marathon.
The ability to identify the players bound to see a spike in stats is a useful tool leading up to your fantasy drafts. Here's my look at several players who could break out with their best production yet in 2016.
Derek Carr | QB | Oakland Raiders
There's so much positive buzz surrounding Oakland, and no player is more important to the team's success going forward than Carr, a third-year signal caller who has started every game in his young career. He finished 13th among quarterbacks in fantasy points last season, a respectable result. But it feels like his ceiling has been far from tapped.
He possesses the requisite arm talent to drive the football to almost all parts of the field, plus he has young talent surrounding him in the receiving corps (Amari Cooper would be on this list if he weren't already a breakout star). Carr flashed his upside in Weeks 6-8 of last season, finishing as a top-five performer among QBs in each outing. Only one quarterback, Russell Wilson, finished as a top-five quarterback in more than three straight weeks last season.
Zach Ertz | TE | Philadelphia Eagles
Ertz has been super productive over the past two seasons, and only four tight ends have more receiving yards and catches than him over that stretch: Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker and Travis Kelce. So why include him on this list if he has already established himself as a significant part of Philly's offense? Because his ceiling still hasn't been reached. Ertz has been plagued by a curiously low touchdown rate over the past two years, totaling just five.
Among the tight ends who had more touchdowns than Ertz last year were Michael Hoomanawanui, Darren Fells and Crockett Gillmore. Ertz's time is coming.
Devin Funchess | WR | Carolina Panthers
Funchess is a unique case of projecting offseason development on top of what we saw last season. He has been a star of Panthers training camp based on reports from those with their eyes on the ground each day during the team's practices, and he's an uncommon athlete, running a 4.50 40 at 232 pounds at the combine.
A tight end in college, Funchess dealt with the transition to a new full-time position and some early injuries. From Week 9 on, Funchess saw 16.1 percent of Cam Newton's targets and didn't go without a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. Expect a steadier role for this second-year stud.
Jeremy Langford | RB | Chicago Bears
Langford has become something of a lightning rod in discussions within the fantasy community. On the one hand, as a steady receiver who can play all three downs, he might be in line to handle a full workload in Chicago and should see improvement in skills from year one to year two in the NFL. Conversely, he had a modest 3.6 yards per carry average last season and just one rush of longer than 20 yards.
But the case for optimism spins back to his projected role in Chicago. He had a stretch of 128 carries in nine games (14.2 per game), which included some games that Matt Forte missed. While not a guarantee, Langford could see close to 225 rushes and 40 catches this season.
Marcus Mariota | QB | Tennessee Titans
The key for Mariota might be as simple as staying healthy. In the nine games that he started and finished last year (he left two early), Mariota averaged a whopping 21.7 fantasy points per game. If he had done that over 16 games, he would have trailed only Cam Newton in fantasy points. Not bad.
He's an exceptional thrower on top of being an equally fine athlete. He led all quarterbacks with more than two rushing attempts last season with a 7.4 yards per carry average. Even if Tennessee works to balance using Mariota's athleticism with protecting him from open-field hits, he's an undeniable threat with the football as a runner. The additions of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry should help him, too. Mariota finished ninth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks off of play action in 2015, despite a woeful rushing attack. The play-action offense should be better this season.
Donte Moncrief | WR | Indianapolis Colts
Entering his third NFL season, Moncrief has already flexed significant chops as a big part of the Colts' offense. And while a lot went wrong for Andrew Luck last season, Moncrief's connection with him was apparent. In the games that Luck played, it was actually Moncrief, not T.Y. Hilton, who led the Colts' wideouts in catches: He had 32 on 54 targets compared with 31 on 62 targets for Hilton.
While Hilton remains the team's unquestioned big-play threat, Moncrief passes the eye test on film and should see his role expand in volume and become more consistent. It should be no surprise if Moncrief surpasses 125 targets and 1,000 yards this season.
DeVante Parker | WR | Miami Dolphins
In 2013, the Dolphins paid huge money to lure Mike Wallace to Miami and serve as the team's field-flipping deep threat. That move flamed out, but Parker showed signs in an abbreviated rookie season that he can be the quick-strike wideout Miami needs.
He dealt with a foot injury to start the year, but from Week 12 on, Parker was 16th in scoring among wide receivers and really consistent. He had at least 85 yards or a touchdown in five of the six final games last year, with an average depth of target of 16.6 yards during that stretch. Now healthy and improved as a player, Parker has all sorts of upside.
Kevin White | WR | Chicago Bears
To be fair, White didn't play a single snap as a rookie because of a shin injury, but his inclusion on this list is a reminder of just how ridiculous an athlete and potential weapon he can be. He's a freakishly explosive, fast and large wideout who torched defenses in his one season of major college football.
There's no NFL sample size to help judge White, but there is perhaps a bit of recent Bears history to consider. White can play the role alongside Alshon Jeffery that Jeffery himself once played next to Brandon Marshall, as the developmental young wideout opposite the established star. As a rookie, Jeffery saw 16.1 percent of Jay Cutler's targets. If White's workload approaches that number this season, his athletic skills and ability with the football in his hand could make him a valuable piece of your roster.