As the fantasy basketball playoffs approach, managers may believe all they have to do is rely on their best players to score the most fantasy points and then hope for the best. Well, that is one way to look at things.
The other, more productive way, of course, is to plan and strategize just a little bit. Nobody knows for sure what will happen when NBA players hit the court -- and which players will not -- but you did some degree of work to boast a relevant fantasy team in mid-March, so let's try to win it all.
This isn't fantasy football. In fantasy basketball, there are far different factors to consider. Here are the ones to help you on your way.
Know your rules and how to exploit them
OK, so this seems obvious, and one may wonder how a manager cannot know the rules four-plus months into the season, but listen, I could tell you some stories. The ESPN standard has the top four teams qualifying for the playoffs, the Nos. 1 and 4 seeds meet (and the Nos. 2 versus 3) over two weeks, and then the final teams meet for a fortnight. Simple. Make daily moves, but limit seven acquisitions per period. For points formats, it all adds into one number. Have fun.
Not all leagues are like this, of course. Some leagues are roto/category based. In some leagues, you finalize a lineup before Monday's action, and therein ends your work for the week. In a head-to-head format, you don't have to win every category, just win more than you lose. Perhaps your roster format doesn't separate into positions, or you can go over the games limit on the final day of the week. We could go myriad directions with this. The point is, don't wait until the playoffs start to re-check - and then check again - the league rules, including any tiebreakers.
Know your style: upside versus safety
Everyone presumably wants to win, so we play the best players to earn the most points, whether it is in late-November or early-March, but what are we prepared to do about it? Are you a risk taker? Some NBA players are safer for production (and suiting up and playing!) than others, who may offer more consistency. Knicks SG/SF Mikal Bridges generally offers a high statistical floor per game, but few 50-point fantasy outings. Blazers SG/SF Shaedon Sharpe, however, may score 47 fantasy points one night after scoring 8, which happened a few weeks ago.
Fantasy managers should be more aggressive with their decision making in the playoffs, though not reckless. Balance is best. It is too late to trade, but for some of your players, 30 fantasy points in four games out of five is good. For others, the occasional 50-point outburst makes it worthwhile. Decide quickly what type of fantasy manager you are comfortable being.
Know your bench and injured reserve spots
As for strategic moves, an easy but important step is deciding if you are making the best use of your bench. In ESPN standard leagues, there are three bench spots. For points formats and ESPN position demands, perhaps rostering the highest scorers is enough. In roto/categories, it may mean rostering a backup like PG T.J. McConnell or C Jonas Valanciunas for what they offer. Stop rostering someone like Pelicans PG Jose Alvarado in a weekly format if you are not going to use him.
Meanwhile, it is long past the time to jettison 76ers C Joel Embiid from the IR spot in redraft formats. Embiid is not playing again this season. Neither is Spurs C Victor Wembanyama, Hawks PF Jalen Johnson, Pelicans SG/PG Dejounte Murray or Mavericks PG/SG Kyrie Irving, yet each of these fellows is rostered in at least 50% of ESPN standard. Add Warriors PF Jonathan Kuminga, Pistons SG/PG Jaden Ivey or Mavericks C Daniel Gafford instead because they may play in March or early in April before the season ends.
Know the schedule
Whether it is a daily or weekly format, taking advantage of the NBA schedule is critical at this time of the year. Every game counts! You could win or lose a playoff round by a fantasy point or two, or one or two rebounds, and you don't want to look back and see you could have maximized your team production but didn't get around to it.
Fantasy managers should fortify their bench with players with the opportunity to participate in more games. For example, for the week of March 17, the beleaguered Dallas Mavericks and the shorthanded Orlando Magic each play only two games. Even if Mavericks C Anthony Davis is healthy by then, he may not be your top option in a weekly format. The Sacramento Kings boast a four-game week every week starting with March 17. The Phoenix Suns have no games remaining with the bottom four clubs, the toughest remaining schedule in the sport, and that may hinder their fantasy numbers.
In a daily format, maximizing games becomes that much tougher if one of your stars like Davis plays half the games in that week that the Knicks' Bridges will. You can no longer trade Orlando SF/PFs Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, but knowing the Magic play only twice makes their other players not worth rostering that week. Check for back-to-back situations as well. The Cleveland Cavaliers, for example, with the Eastern Conference all but locked up, seem likely to avoid stars playing on consecutive nights.
Know your versatility
Injuries and surprise absences will happen, especially in late-March, so investing in players that can fill in at multiple positions may be a differentiator. With someone like McConnell, he is eligible to play point guard in ESPN leagues. His Pacers teammate Andrew Nembhard is eligible at each guard spot. That may matter.
Small forward can be a difficult position to find contributors, and myriad relevant players available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues offer multiple eligibility, including Houston's SF/PF Tari Eason, Washington's SG/SF Bilal Coulibaly and Bulls PF/C Zach Collins.
Know which players may be shut down
Charlotte's LaMelo Ball and New Orleans' PF Zion Williamson are producing major numbers, but under normal circumstances each is absent for so many games with injury, and their teams are terrible. Combine those factors and Ball/Williamson, still performing at high levels, are prime candidates to be prematurely shut down. Why would the Hornets or Pels risk it? Losses are more valuable than wins at this point.
Any Hornets, Jazz, Pelicans and Wizards -- easily the bottom four teams -- are risky at this point, from John Collins to Jordan Poole. Those teams may or may not feature relevant fantasy options acting as bench depth.
Then there are the great players on better teams that can really affect a fantasy manager.The Suns are a mess and play arguably the toughest schedule remaining. Perhaps the Suns catch the Mavericks for the final West play-in spot, but if they aren't close with two weeks remaining, PF Kevin Durant is a big risk. SG/SF Bradley Beal is always a risk. Why the 76ers would risk SF/PF Paul George and/or PG/SG Tyrese Maxey is a mystery. Preemptively adding 76ers SG Quentin Grimes, Nets PF Trendon Watford or Suns PG/SG Grayson Allen in deeper formats seems wise.
Know when to let go of a superstar
SF/PF LeBron James is difficult to replace, and fantasy managers are dealing with his absence this week, but they may have no choice but to officially move on when the playoffs begin. James injured his groin over the weekend, and there is little clarity on how much time he will miss. Unfortunately, he is not alone as fantasy managers deal with so many missed games from so many great players.
Fantasy managers initially must hold on to the great James, of course -- nobody would suggest otherwise yet -- but if he hasn't returned by the middle of the second week of your first playoff series, and things aren't looking positive for later that weekend, you may need to make a tough choice. Similarly, we just don't know about the Mavericks' Davis, Kings C/PF Domantas Sabonis, Knicks PG Jalen Brunson and myriad others. Fill your IR spot first, but bench spots are valuable and there never feels like enough of them at this time of the year.
Similarly, while other stars currently appear on ESPN's undroppables list, this may change in the coming weeks. If a top player is removed from ESPN's list, it may indicate that player is not returning to the court as soon as we all would like. Always keep up with the latest news. It could decide your fantasy championship! Good luck!