Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... Ty Jerome is a top-50 player the final weeks
The Cavaliers entered Wednesday with an eight-game lead in the East with 21 games left, and with every right to give their star players more than the occasional day off in March and April. Evan Mobley, perhaps the league's pending winner of the Defensive Player of the Year award now that Victor Wembanyama is ineligible, rested Tuesday, even though nothing is wrong with him. Donovan Mitchell sat out a weekend game. Darius Garland missed a pair of games a week before with a hip contusion, but he could have played.
Jerome, the spunky Virginia product enjoying a breakout season off the bench at 27, isn't missing games. Watch him play and it is clear he wants to be out there for every minute he can, and he has scored more than 20 points in three of the past five.
Over the past 30 days, Jerome has averaged 28.5 ESPN fantasy points, which doesn't approach Cleveland's big four -- each of whom should finish among the top 50 fantasy scorers for the season -- but recently, he can match Garland. Jerome isn't going to sit. Mobley, Mitchell and Garland will. New De'Andre Hunter, hardly an ironman, will be treated cautiously.
We will delve more into fantasy playoff strategy for head-to-head formats next week, and star players missing games for whatever reason must be a topic. It is frustrating for fantasy managers. Oklahoma City star and current MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't going to play every one of his team's final 20 games. He doesn't need to. The No. 1 West seed is locked up. Other Thunder players will see opportunity. In Cleveland, Jerome, Max Strus and journeyman SF Javonte Green should become more relevant.
Other Cavaliers thoughts: Mobley and Mitchell each average 41 fantasy points per game this season, tops on the team, but I think Mobley still has more upside. He should be averaging 22 PPG and 11 RPG. He's at 18.6 PPG, still up three points from last season, but he can do more. Perhaps starting in the fall. ... Garland's best season came in 2021-22, when he averaged 21.7 PPG and 8.6 APG. Mitchell's high usage hurts Garland's stats just a bit, but also, Garland is playing five fewer minutes per game than that season. That is by design. I'd be careful with Garland in dynasty formats. ... Strus is going to hit a ton of 3-pointers this month. Get ready.
Don't be surprised if ... GG Jackson averages 30 fantasy points the final weeks
Who? You remember Jackson from last season around this time, when the rookie second-round pick went on a post-All-Star break heater and fantasy managers loved him. Seemingly all the other Grizzlies were hurt, so Jackson, at 18 years old, averaged 17.6 PPG post-break, and 20.8 PPG in April. He rebounded a little and hit some 3-pointers and it was a genuinely nice story, as the beleaguered Grizzlies merely aimed to finish out the season fielding a team. We knew a healthy Memphis team would bounce back, and it has, though the loss of C/PF Jaren Jackson Jr. to a sprained ankle Monday is a big deal.
Jaren Jackson averages 22.7 PPG and 40.6 ESPN fantasy points, both tops on the club, and he blocks shots, hits 3-pointers and is a defensive stalwart. This Jackson is a star, but we may not see him again in March, which really hurts fantasy managers. This Jackson isn't Wembanyama, but he has an irreplaceable skillset for roto/categories managers. In points formats, add anyone who gets you points. Add Ty Jerome. In roto, who is available who blocks shots and hits threes? Jay Huff? Ugh.
GG Jackson, 20 as of mid-December, played 28 minutes off the bench Monday and he contributed 11 points, seven rebounds and hit a pair of 3-pointers. He blocked one shot. The minutes are going to be there for the rest of March. Memphis seems likely to secure the West's No. 4 or 5 seed at this point but nothing better, and PG Ja Morant may play/sit half the games from here on out. The team should be cautious. Play for the playoffs. Jaren Jackson isn't being rushed back. Perhaps GG Jackson can at least replace most of the scoring.
Other Grizzlies thoughts: This is mostly what I expected from Morant, as he scores far less than his peak seasons (20.9 PPG) but still provides assists and, well, flashy highlights that make most people think he is a fantasy star. When combined with the lack of durability, he is not a strong fantasy investment for dynasty or redraft formats, but we've said this before. ... Zach Edey started March nicely, with 32 points, 14 boards, 4 blocks and only two missed field goals (out of 15 chances) in two games. The minutes keep rising. Edey is a strong dynasty investment. Watch him average 18 PPG, 12 RPG and 3 BPG in 2026-27.
Perhaps Jaylen Wells wins NBA Rookie of the Year honors for his 11.4 PPG and, well, being durable enough to play all the games, but he isn't doing much in fantasy. Edey is far more productive. Pelicans center Yves Missi is the lone rookie close to the top 100 points league scorers. My rookie vote would go to San Antonio guard Stephon Castle, though much work is necessary for him to be an actual point guard or much of a 3-point threat.
Don't be surprised if ... James Harden continues to miss a lot of shots
Harden is enjoying a solid fantasy season, entering Thursday's games ranked 14th in ESPN fantasy points after exciting Wednesday's 50-point explosion. He has raised his scoring average 5.5 points from last season, getting back to 22.1 PPG, and we get the typical rebounds, assists, 3-pointers and free throw percentage we all know and love. Harden has been a bargain, but not quite as much as he should be. He should be in the top 10, but the reason he isn't is because he still misses so many shots. We thought the shooting would improve as the season went on. It has not.
Tuesday was a great example, as Harden delivered 21 points, 6 rebounds and 15 assists against the Suns, but missed nine of 14 field goals. We can't complain about those 59 fantasy points. (He averages 42.6, but with fewer missed field goals -- or shots in which he attempts/thinks he got fouled and forces a rough heave -- it would be better.) On Wednesday, Harden hit 14 of 24 field goals. It was merely the seventh time Harden has hit more than half his field goals this season. Let that sink in. OK, so he wasn't exactly Rudy Gobert on field goals to start with, but 39.2% for 59 games is ... wow.
For perspective, Harden shot a passable 42.8% from the field a season ago, and he is at 43.9% for his long Hall of Fame career. This season, Harden is one of three qualified players on the wrong side of 40% from the field, along with Jazz PG Keyonte George and Rockets PG Fred VanVleet, each of whom have been there before. They weren't third-round fantasy picks, of course, and they aren't No. 14 in fantasy points, either. Only George and Blazers PG Scoot Henderson shot below 40% last season.
We can't truly complain about Harden, as he has returned to top-20 fantasy status, even if he hurts fantasy managers in field goal shooting in roto/categories formats, and the 4.5 turnovers per game are a rough side note, as well. Everything else is gold. Harden, 35, remains a fantastic fantasy option. We would love to see more nights like Wednesday, when the shots are falling. Perhaps next season he shoots 42% and is even a bit better.
Other Clippers thoughts: I added PG/SG Kris Dunn in a roto league because I really needed the steals, aware that is just about all fantasy managers get from him, and then on Tuesday he hit one basket in 32 minutes. On Wednesday, we got eight points, and over those two games, five steals! Are the steals worth it? Perhaps I will move on from him soon and wonder what I was thinking. ... I'm really bummed about SG/SF Norman Powell out at least 10 more days with a bad hamstring, and not just because I traded for him in a league 20 days ago. He's having his best season at age 31. Fantasy managers loved him. Now, with the playoffs coming, they must decide whether to hold on to him. It's a tough one. ... Invest in SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic. Better shooting is ahead. It always is with him.