Depressed about the pending end of the fantasy season? Don't fret. Your 2016-17 drafts are only six months away!
Soon we'll be contemplating Ben Simmons/Dragan Bender/Brandon Ingram/Jaylen Brown in a Sixers/Lakers/Suns/Celtics/maybe-Ainge-trades-the-pick-for-an-established-star uniform.
For practical fantasy purposes, the 2015-16 rookies are on the precipice of having accrued veteran service. The lottery is closer than you think.
What better way to start thinking about draft season than by taking one more look at our rookie -- soon to be sophomore -- class?
Rookie valuation is a brightly lit yet unstable and unforgiving corner of the NBA fantasy world. The risks are great, and the rewards are relatively small (compared to adding, say, aging vets to your roster).
But we keep coming back. Why?
Because young upside is exciting. It's rewarding to be rewarded for taking a chance on an unproven player. Rookies present fresh variables. New possibilities.
Over the past few seasons, we've been playing Imaginary GM in the Golden Age of the Point Guard. But this season's rookie class portends a shift back toward big men.
The class of 2015-16 contains four or five All-Star-caliber bigs.
Karl-Anthony Towns is in the final stages of one of the great pole-to-pole rookie seasons in fantasy history. He's a relatively easy projection come fall. The only real argument is if Towns' still-expanding upside warrants a top-5 pick.
The rest of the rookie class? They've performed ... as expected. As in ... they've delivered the unexpected.
This is the stage of a rookie season when possibilities and upside can begin to be extrapolated into October draft valuation. The period when tanking struggling franchises tilt their rotations toward youth with an eye toward accruing pingpong balls and hope for next season.
We fantasy enthusiasts require minutes -- extended minutes -- to properly assess an outgoing rookie's draft stock. By the time we enter the last 10 to 15 games, more and more rookies begin to enter 25-minute territory.
Late-season roles are important for a second reason.
We need to divine what size a rookie's role is shaping up to be come next season. All the upside in the world means nothing in fantasy if the player only projects out at 15 to 25 minutes a game.
With these factors in mind, let's take one more trip through our rookie rankings with an eye toward 2016-17 draft valuation.
In the name of closure and full disclosure, I'll also include my October 2015 (peak of draft season) rankings and my January 2016 (fantasy midseason) rankings.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
October 2015 Ranking: 2
January 2016 Ranking: 1
2016-17 ADP: 5
Look. My October 2015 ranking was based on probable return on investment. Back in October, KATMania had pushed the rookie's ADP to around 40. That's a dangerously high ADP for any rookie. In a typical year, even the top fantasy rookies struggle to break the top 70.
So I knocked Towns down a slot. History dictated he was being drafted two rounds too high. (In my defense, I also wrote Towns "could showcase second-to-third round production right out of the gate, which would make him a truly exceptional outlier.")
Cut to today. The evidence is in. Towns is averaging 18.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks while shooting 54.6 percent from the field and 81.8 percent from the line. The 3-point shot didn't quite arrive as advertised, but it's early.
Very early. He can't even buy beer (save for road trips to Toronto) until Nov. 15.
Towns is the outlier. He is posting second-round value. The rare rookie who obliterated his sky-high preseason ADP. Towns is having perhaps the best rookie campaign of the last five seasons. It's looking like it could be stronger than Damian Lillard's 2012-13 campaign.
And the most mouth-watering number of all? 82.
Towns is on pace to play all 82 games. Typically, rookie big men do not manage to perform at a sustained level while staying healthy. Towns' closest rookie comparison, Anthony Davis, played only 64 games his first season. Davis still hasn't come within spitting distance of 70 games. (Blake Griffin also played 82 games his rookie season, but he got to redshirt a year after fracturing his kneecap in the 2009 preseason.)
Towns' first season isn't even in the books ... but I'd take him above Davis in a heartbeat.
2. Nikola Jokic, PF/C, Denver Nuggets
October 2015 Ranking: N/R
January 2016 Ranking: 7
2016-17 ADP: 30
I'm putting Jokic this high for two reasons.
One, over the last month Jokic has been fantasy's second-best rookie. Jokic's 8.24 player rater points ranks a strong second behind Towns' 9.96.
Second ... I just want to make sure you don't sleep on Jokic in your 2016-17 draft prep. The Danilo Gallinari-less Nuggets have fallen a bit off the NBA grid. But down-the-stretch performance is our best indicator of fall draft valuation. And Jokic is delivering -- consistently, across two positions -- on a nightly basis.
Jokic's value can sneak up on you. He doesn't score at an attention-grabbing rate. But he does everything well. Everything. Points, 3s, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and percentages. He's a 6-foot-10 rookie who shoots 37 percent from deep.
His March line: 12.4 points, 0.5 3-pointers, 8.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 blocks, 1.2 steals while shooting 44.7 percent from the floor and 87.9 percent from the free throw line. And he's been relatively healthy.
Jokic's most attention-grabbing number? 3.4 dimes a night. Rookie big men don't come out of the box this skilled. But the class of 2015-16 could go do down as the best big man draft since 1992 (the Shaq-Alonzo Mourning draft). And our next player has just as much upside as Towns and Jokic.
3. Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, New York Knicks
October 2015 Ranking: 7
January 2016 Ranking: 2
2016-17 ADP: 30
Based on upside, you could easily rank Porzingis ahead of Jokic. But over the second half of the season, Porzingis has suffered from typical rookie inconsistency. He's battled injuries. His minutes have yo-yoed. His shot has flatlined (.337 FG%, along with a .250 3PT% in March).
Remember, he's only 20. His 2016 averages (13.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.1 3-pointers, 1.9 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.3 assists), place him at No. 52 overall on the player rater.
That's an excellent rookie year. In a normal, KAT-less campaign, he'd be strong contender for fantasy rookie (and actual NBA rookie) of the year.
His role headed into next year is secure. The only debate with Porzingis is "how high." Right now, late third round is feeling about right. But like with a lot of the rookies on this list, we'll have to monitor summer league performance and preseason.
(Note: For a second-year player, summer league is more important than you think. I look for graduation-level performances. Games that advertise a player has moved beyond summer league competition. It may not necessarily show up in the box score, but when you see it ... you feel it. With most big men taking their leaps in production in Year 2 or Year 3, this summer will be vital in gauging fantasy valuation.)
4. D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Los Angeles Lakers
October 2015 Ranking: 5
January 2016 Ranking: 4
2016-17 ADP: 50
Russell is primed for a big sophomore leap. Since returning to the starting lineup, Russell's run of 20-plus scoring games (seven out of nine games from Feb. 24 to March 10) announced marked improvement. But I've been more impressed by the improvements in efficiency (39 percent from 3-point range in March and a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio since February).
The biggest reason to love Russell for 2016-17? The elephant in the room is retiring. When Kobe hangs it up -- and releases his 29.6 usage rate to the wind -- Russell will be the most direct beneficiary of the extra possessions. Expect his numbers to jump across the board.
The red flags for Russell? Consistency and the Laker Uncertainty Principle. If the Lakers successfully tank and stay in the top three (and keep their first-round pick)? It doesn't look like the Lakers will need to think backcourt (Ingram?). But if they miss out on their pick (and all that tanking goes to waste), look for the Lakers to start throwing max money at anything that moves.
5. Jahlil Okafor, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers
October 2015 Ranking: 3
January 2016 Ranking: 3
2016-17 ADP: 60
Even with his rookie season cut short (meniscus) at 53 games, Okafor will close out second in rookie scoring (17.5 PTS) and third in rebounding (7.0 REB).
But even if Okafor had stayed on the court, I still wouldn't have rated him ahead of Jokic and Porzingis. For all his canny scoring ability, Okafor still hasn't displayed their across-the-board categorical diversity.
Okafor has generated a better blocks rate (1.2 per game) than expected. But elite big men who don't produce atypical stats (3s, steals, assists) have to average more than 7.0 rebounds a night.
Some of Okafor's rebounding deficiencies are a result of playing alongside Nerlens Noel. The jury is still out on whether the two can coexist long term. But it certainly seems like Noel is vulturing some of Okafor's fantasy value.
In the final assessment, the Sixers' unsettled frontcourt rotation (Okafor, Noel, Embiid? Ben Simmons?) makes it difficult to peg Okafor's value come Halloween. The sixth round could be a steal ... or a reach.
6. Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns
October 2015 Ranking: 12
January 2016 Ranking: 5
2016-17 ADP: 60
Over the weekend, Zach Lowe wrote an excellent piece on why not to be wary of Booker's late-season exploits. That his high-volume (21.4 points, 5.0 assists, 1.5 3-pointers per game in March), low-efficiency (.405 FG%, .274 3PT%, 2.9 turnovers per game in March) statistical explosion wasn't the product of a bad team unleashing a middling rookie.
One March stat that portends big sophomore development? Follow the free throws. This month, Booker is averaging 6.2 free throws per game and converting 5.5 of them (good for an .882 clip). That's elite fantasy production regardless of age.
All the players on the list are young. But Booker is the youngest player in the NBA. And even if he hasn't played himself into starting consideration ahead of Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe, he's played himself into the conversation. Just remember that come fall, Booker is (as of this writing) projected to come off the bench.
7. Myles Turner, PF/C, Indiana Pacers
October 2015 Ranking: 4
January 2016 Ranking: N/R
2016-17 ADP: 80
Turner has posted an up-and-down rookie year. He's dipped in March. But his starting stats (12.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.7 blocks) merit No. 2 fantasy center consideration. Watch his role in preseason, but Turner is shaping up as a sexy sleeper pick.
8. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Denver Nuggets
October 2015 Ranking: 1
January 2016 Ranking: 10
2016-17 ADP: 75
Since returning to the starting lineup, Mudiay has managed to rescue my fantasy ROY prediction from the annals of "worst prediction ever" to just sort of "meh." Until Monday night, Mudiay had gone for double digits in 10 straight games. His March numbers (16.6 points, 5.2 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 1.6 3-pointers, .400 3PT%) evidence vast improvement.
But as Mudiay terrifyingly proved Monday night against Cleveland, he is still capable of 1-of-11 nights from the field. Chalk it up as a Cleveland aberration, and realize Denver is stocking some nice under-the-radar fantasy talent for 2016-17.
9. Josh Richardson, SG, Miami Heat
October 2015 Ranking: N/R
January 2016 Ranking: N/R
2016-17 ADP: 90
Fantasy mavens (myself included) were hyping Justise Winslow. Winslow has impressed with defense (and minutes per game). But it's been the Heat's second-rounder who has been scrambling up 2016-17 draft boards.
Richardson has been steadily building momentum since All-Star Weekend. I look for rookies to show signs of elite potential in at least one category. Since March 1, Richardson has been one of the best 3-point shooters in the NBA. He's hitting 2.4 per night ... at a .667 rate. And he's doing it in meaningful games for a playoff contender.
No player can stay this on-fire forever. But he's becoming an awfully intriguing fantasy story headed into the summer. His 2016-17 value will be determined by whatever moves the Heat make this offseason.
10 (tie). Bobby Portis, PF, Chicago Bulls
October 2015 Ranking: N/R
January 2016 Ranking: N/R
2016-17 ADP: 100
10 (tie). Stanley Johnson, SF, Detroit Pistons
October 2015 Ranking: 8 January 2016 Ranking: 8 2016-17 ADP: 100
In short bursts, Portis and Johnson have flashed serious fantasy potential. The key for them minutes. Logjams at their respective positions have kneecapped both players' fantasy potential. But if either player starts receiving a steady diet of 25-plus minutes a night, he'll both become a great late-round gamble.
11. Justise Winslow, SG/SF, Miami Heat 12. Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Charlotte Hornets 13. Willie Cauley-Stein, PF/C, Sacramento Kings 14. Mario Hezonja SG/SF, Orlando Magic 15. T.J. McConnell, PG, Philadelphia 76ers 16. Jerian Grant, PG, New York Knicks 17. Larry Nance Jr., PF, Los Angeles Lakers