Each Monday this season, I'll tip the week off by positing five key fantasy basketball questions to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy hoops experts, thus "The Starting Five."
This week's contributors are ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton, ESPN Fantasy analyst Joe Kaiser and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
The New Orleans Pelicans announced they are shutting down Anthony Davis for the rest of the season due to knee and shoulder ailments that will require surgery. This means he played just 61 games this season and no more than 68 games in any of his first four campaigns. Considering his health issues, what is your read on his fantasy value for next season?
Pelton: It's a concern. The best predictor of players missing games in the future is the games they've missed in the past. Whatever the reason, Davis seems to have a tendency to suffer a variety of minor injuries throughout the season. That certainly has to be factored into his fantasy projections; I'd assume he's going to miss 10 to 15 games going in. That probably still leaves him a top-five pick but might drop him a spot or two from where he'd rank if he were more durable.
Kaiser: Now that the Brow is officially out for the season, it's every reason to remove him from consideration as your top pick in 2016. Davis hasn't played more than 68 games in any of his four NBA seasons, and his lack of durability and the constant threat of being shut down at the end of the season are two factors that make him too big of a risk to be considered the top player in fantasy basketball. Especially when you consider what Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and James Harden are doing. I expect Davis to drop to No. 5 in most drafts next season, getting selected ahead of LeBron James but after the guys I mentioned above.
Carpenter: The hope I always carry with young players is that eventually their bodies get used to the 82-game grind. We saw that with Curry's ankle issues early in his career before he became a workhorse. That hope remains alive for Davis, since he just turned 23, but his health concerns are myriad. Where Curry is small and had only ankle ailments, Davis is 6-foot-10, 253 pounds and his injury list as a pro is lengthy: fractured hand, back, ankle, toes, groin, shoulders, knee, hip. That combination of size and varied ailments during the course of four seasons means there is big risk in dropping an early-round pick on him in fantasy. His upside is crazy big, though, so I think he will be worth the risk in the middle of the first round, probably No. 5.
Michael Beasley has averaged 17.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and a 57.5 field goal percentage in his past six games during his brief tenure with the Houston Rockets. Do you think he can maintain this pace the rest of the season?
Pelton: No. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Beasley is making 56.3 percent of his attempts from 10-16 feet this season, a spot where he's shot 39.0 percent during the course of his career. His midrange shot-making is inevitably going to regress to the mean, and Beasley has also been finishing inside three feet at a rate (75.8 percent) far better than his career norm (63.1 percent). If Beasley isn't making as many shots, his other weaknesses become a lot more difficult to live with, and his playing time figures to drop off.
Kaiser: At this stage in his career, the 27-year-old is a seasoned veteran who knows his game well and is comfortable "staying in his lane" on the court. He's clearly surpassed Terrence Jones and Josh Smith on the Rockets' depth chart and there's no reason to think that he can't continue what he's doing -- or even improve upon those numbers -- in the weeks ahead. The fact that he has played at least 26 minutes in three of the past four games is very encouraging.
Carpenter: Since he has averaged a 45.1 field goal percentage for his career, it's a safe bet that his field goal percentage will drop significantly in the remaining weeks. On the other hand, Jones and Smoove already have proved they aren't a threat to Beasley's minutes, so the real key is that the door is wide open for him to continue earning meaningful court time down the stretch. If you need scoring and boards, go grab him off of the wire.
Doug McDermott has put together some nice box scores in the past four to six weeks. Do you think he has proved himself capable of being on the fantasy radar next season?
Pelton: On the fantasy radar? Sure. He's likely to supply points and 3-pointers, if not much else. I don't see him as a high-upside play because of his defensive limitations. Even during this terrific offensive stretch, McDermott is playing just 26.5 minutes per game because he struggles to defend starting-caliber wings. That's unlikely to change, so McDermott isn't going to become a fantasy star. But he can certainly fill out a rotation.
Kaiser: It will ultimately depend on the roster the Bulls put together in the summer, because McDermott's limitations on defense are something the team could be looking to address. If he averages around 25 minutes again in 2016-17, McDermott is a solid streaming option who provides scoring, efficient shooting and 3-pointers. But I'm still hesitant to regard him as the type of player you can keep on your roster all season due to the fact that he barely contributes in the rebound, assist, steal and block categories.
Carpenter: His upside as a fantasy player will be as a 3-point specialist, which means he will contribute only 3s and points. In order to really make a mark in fantasy, he probably would need to attempt at least six 3-pointers per game. He has averaged nearly four per game since the All-Star break, so it's not outlandish to think he could get six off next season, depending on how their roster is rounded out. If they add some depth to the wing, though, he likely will be on and off the waiver wire.
After averaging more than 18 PPG in the first two months of this season, Andre Drummond has averaged fewer than 15 PPG since the end of December. Do you think he is capable of pushing up on 20 PPG for the Detroit Pistons next season?
Pelton: I wouldn't give Drummond more than about a 5 percent chance of increasing his scoring to that point. Despite the high-percentage looks he generates out of the pick-and-roll and via offensive rebounds, he remains a relatively inefficient offensive option overall because of his difficulty creating his own shot in the post -- along with his ongoing issues at the free throw line. Beyond that, with the addition of Tobias Harris, the Pistons simply have more offensive options. Drummond's shooting percentage is up since the break, but his usage rate is down from 24.7 percent to 22.9 percent of Detroit's plays.
Kaiser: Drummond is still only 22 years old, believe it or not, and you have to expect all of his numbers to steadily rise in the years ahead. That being said, I think 20 PPG could be a reach for him next season, especially if scoring power forward Harris is back in the fold. Harris, along with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris and the probable offensive improvement of young wings Stanley Johnson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope give the Pistons a number of scoring options that lessen the need for Drummond to be a 20 PPG scorer.
Carpenter: At this point, I think he isn't likely to see his scoring increase beyond 17-18 PPG next season, and that may even be a stretch. That's because the Pistons won't need him to dominate as a scorer, even if he improves his post moves and atrocious free throw shooting. Coach Stan Van Gundy is focused on playing solid defense and running a pretty slow-paced offense, so opportunities already will be limited -- and they will be limited even further with everyone else in the starting five now a capable scorer.
Shelvin Mack has dished out at least eight dimes in six of his past seven games and scored at least 13 points in six straight. Will he maintain this pace down the stretch for the Utah Jazz?
Pelton: Other than his 3-point shooting, it's hard to see much fluky about what Mack is doing in Utah. He's averaging 15.4 points and 6.7 assists per 36 minutes, not far off his career marks (13.0 and 6.5, respectively). His stat accumulation is mostly about playing near 30 minutes a night. The return of Alec Burks could cut into that playing time to some extent, though coach Quin Snyder has shown great faith in Mack thus far and might still want him on the court as a true point guard. I'd keep riding the production Mack is offering fantasy owners.
Kaiser: I don't see any reason for him not to. He's a veteran who is composed and is not in over his head. Other than a few weeks in 2013-14, this is his first real chance to be a starter so you know he wants to take full advantage of the opportunity. He gets Houston and Minnesota this week, and Minnesota and Phoenix next week, so there are going to be many chances for him to put up big games against weak defenses.
Carpenter: This is why you must incessantly work the waiver wire all season -- and especially in the waning weeks of the season. When a player who knows how to take care of business suddenly gets big minutes, he can alter the trajectory of your fantasy squad. Mack has proved in short bursts in the past that he can dish the rock and score a bit, so his current production at 30 minutes per game isn't that surprising. He has no notable competition for minutes at this time and his coach trusts him, so keep riding him in fantasy. He has no business being available in 40 percent of ESPN leagues.