Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... D'Angelo Russell returns to top 50 production
It wasn't too long ago that Russell was quite a valuable fantasy option. In fact, it was last season when he averaged 18.0 PPG, 6.3 APG and 36.5 ESPN fantasy PPG, making him the No. 33 scorer in points leagues. The Lakers didn't care, though. Russell seemed scapegoated for the team's offensive issues early this season, getting banished to a reserve role. In fairness, his numbers weren't drastically different as a starter than off the bench (12.8 PPG, 5.4 APG starting, 12.2 PPG, 4.3 APG off the bench). A seemingly disinterested Russell deserves some blame, too. It earned him a trade back to Brooklyn.
Russell is back for his second tour with the Nets, and unlike the LeBron Lakers, these Nets don't really want to win games. Perhaps this is a perfect statistical fit for Russell, who used to enjoy major usage and seemingly unlimited shots. In fact, Russell averaged 19 PPG and 6.3 APG over his 129 games for the Nets from 2017 through 2019 (until being moved to the Warriors in the weird Kevin Durant deal). Russell, once the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft, isn't for everyone. NBA teams keep unloading him, and perhaps the Nets trade him in the next month before the deadline, too.
Fantasy managers, however, should see the immediate upside for Russell on this tanking Nets team. Someone must shoot, someone must score, and everyone appears available in trade or to be rested for a fortnight due to some minor injury. The Nets recently traded PG Dennis Schroder to the Warriors for draft picks. Schroder averaged 18.4 PPG, 6.6 APG and 30 ESPN fantasy PPG this season as a Net. Russell sure seems capable of this and, again he was quite productive last season, so it would not be a major surprise.
Don't be surprised if ... Stephen Curry is not the top second-half Warrior
Everyone loves Curry. Let's make that clear right away. Curry remains awesome at age 36, even though his traditional scoring rate has fallen 4.4 PPG from last season. The statistical truth is Curry is accruing more rebounds, assists and steals than last season, making up for the lesser PPG number, so his points league production is roughly the same. We also know he is quite capable of more production. Curry may be in minor statistical decline, but we cannot complain about him missing only six games in two-plus months, either. However, this missive is not about Curry.
Warriors PF Jonathan Kuminga is on quite a roll lately, scoring 34 traditional points in a pair of weekend games against the Clippers and Suns, then leading the Warriors with 18 points in 32 minutes in Monday's loss to the Cavaliers. We have seen a new Kuminga over the past few weeks. In fact, over the past 30 days, Kuminga -- still available in 36% of ESPN standard leagues -- leads all Warriors with 432 ESPN fantasy points. Curry scored 418 points, though he missed several games. Then again, those missed games count, and Curry is far more likely than Kuminga to miss games over the next four months.
What's amazing about Kuminga's sudden rise is that he is doing this as the team's sixth man. Coach Steve Kerr says the No. 7 pick in the 2021 draft is "turning a corner," playing with more energy, creating better shots, attacking the rim with more confidence. Kuminga, 22, is playing starter's minutes, and he has attempted double digit free throws in three consecutive games, showing a new assertiveness. Perhaps he will start making a better percentage, too. Regardless, Kuminga scored 143 ESPN fantasy points in the past three games.
Another Warrior fantasy managers should invest in is PF/C Trayce Jackson-Davis. He's been starting at center, despite being only 6-foot-8, and he has averaged 14.3 PPG and 10 RPG with nine blocks in those six games. The Indiana product leads all Warriors with 36.7 fantasy points per game in that span, and there is no end in sight. I would still trade for Curry in any fantasy league, but we must acknowledge the risk of missed games at his age, especially if the Warriors keep losing and fall from reasonable contention.
Don't be surprised if ... Shaedon Sharpe continues to disappoint
Sharpe is only 21 years old and in his third season, so he deserves more time before anyone dismisses him as unable to become a potential fantasy star. However, it is hard to ignore a disturbing statistical similarity between Sharpe, who seems to earn perpetual praise as an up-and-coming swingman for the Trail Blazers, and veteran teammate PF Jerami Grant, a modestly established scorer who adds little else to a fantasy team and gets dinged for it in drafts.
Sharpe: 30.8 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 3PG.
Grant: 32.7 MPG, 15 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.3 APG, 2.4 3PG.
The well-paid Grant is struggling this season after averaging better than 20 PPG in each of his first two Portland seasons. In fact, in 146 games as a Blazer, all starts, he averages 19.6 PPG. It helps, but as you can see, he does little else for a fantasy roster. Sharpe's numbers sure look similar. He leads the Blazers in scoring, but so far, that's about all there is. Grant, shooting 38% from the field, is not scoring as expected, but he leads the team in minutes. Sharpe is getting the minutes and doing little with them.
Grant missed Monday's blowout loss to Philadelphia with a facial contusion, but it was more of the same for Sharpe and the rest of the starters. Sharpe, the No. 7 pick in the 2022 draft from Kentucky, took plenty of shots, but scored only 12 points, and added one measly rebound and one assist. He committed three turnovers. It was his worst game in a while. Sharpe averages 27.1 ESPN fantasy points per game, and 29.5 points over the past 30 days, but neither mark is enough, really. He's getting minutes, but the production underwhelms. C Deandre Ayton has become Portland's top fantasy option, and nobody wants that.
No Blazers are rostered in as many as 80% of ESPN standard leagues, with SG/PG Anfernee Simons leading the way at 78.7%. Simons averages 17.5 PPG, down from 22.6 PPG last season. His numbers are down and perhaps he gets dealt. No Blazers average 18 PPG. Only Ayton averages more than 6.1 RPG. Disappointing PG Scoot Henderson gets 5.1 APG, all off the bench, but he hardly looks special. I paid close attention to SF/PF Deni Avdija on Monday, since he scored 27 points against the Jazz last week and flirted with a triple double. He committed 10 turnovers against the 76ers. Yikes.