Dallas Mavericks PG/SG Kyrie Irving has averaged 46.2 ESPN fantasy points per game this season, a top-20 figure in the league on a per-game basis. Of course, Irving has been all about the per-game basis for much of his standout career.
Few have ever questioned Irving's remarkable skills. Four NBA franchises and myriad fantasy basketball managers have enjoyed them. They just haven't enjoyed them as much as they have for other star players.
Irving appeared in 60 games last season for the Mavericks and Brooklyn Nets, his most since the 2018-19 campaign. A veteran of 13 NBA seasons after being the top overall pick in the 2011 draft for the Cavaliers out of Duke, Irving has played in more than 60 games in only four seasons -- for a variety of reasons, some related to health.
It seems unlikely this season as already Irving has missed 16 of the team's 40 games. Two more and he is ineligible for major league awards! Seriously, though, it can be frustrating.
For example, Irving and his fantasy investors enjoyed a recent seven-game stretch in which he averaged 63 ESPN fantasy points per game, scoring more than 40 traditional points twice and contributing a flurry of assists, steals and 3-pointers.
Then came Wednesday night against the Lakers, and the player who led ESPN's 15-day Player Rater left the game in the first quarter with a hip injury. Here we go again, figured the Mavericks and fantasy investors. Irving returned to the game but missed 12 of 16 field goal attempts overall, scoring only 12 points and 18 fantasy points.
Some will confidently claim how predictable it was for Irving to statistically underachieve with colleague Luka Doncic back in the lineup, but this isn't really true. Yes, Doncic returned after missing three games with an ankle injury, but the dynamic duo has thrived together.
Doncic and Irving each played on Jan. 7 and Jan. 9, as the team split games with the Timberwolves and Grizzlies. Irving was the high scorer each game, and he scored 135 fantasy points. Doncic, admittedly somewhat compromised with the bad ankle, scored 104 fantasy points. This pairing does work, and fantasy managers crave more of it.
Irving is surely a polarizing fantasy option both on and off the court, and many fantasy managers adopt the approach that such a talented player should be coveted, and they can fill in for the missed games. This is sensible. 76ers C Joel Embiid isn't exactly Cal Ripken Jr. himself (or durable A.C. Green, for old hoops fans). Talent wins out and fantasy managers hope for health.
Irving's subpar outing on Wednesday dropped his fantasy points season average from 12th in the league to 18th, but he still tops Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry, for example. On a per-game basis, the Mavericks have one of the best 1-2 duos in the sport. Lakers LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the only set of teammates each ranking in the top 10 for fantasy points on a per-game basis.
There is no right or wrong answer as to how fantasy managers should evaluate players such as Irving or Embiid, awesome talents who routinely miss a quarter of an NBA season, if not more. There is risk, surely. Irving missed most of December (12 games) with a heel injury, returned to play on Jan. 1, and went on a scoring rampage soon after.
Perhaps another stretch of missed games for Wednesday's hip injury are pending. You never know with Irving, but the statistical greatness makes it worth the while.
After all, Irving ranks 12th among active players at 23.5 PPG, 14th with 5.7 APG and only three active players have shot free throws better than his 88.5 FT%. His production and usage rate remain high, even playing with Doncic. The Mavericks are playoff-bound, and they want their dynamic duo healthy for the playoffs. When health is at all in doubt for a January game, Doncic and Irving will likely sit. January games are not of the utmost importance. Playoff games are. Fantasy managers may not like it, but that is the deal.
We often preach to fantasy managers a balanced approach of roster building, regardless of fantasy sport, and that would include a mix of durable players with some level of statistical security and Irving types that unfortunately miss games, but they offer fantastic numbers when they do play. Others would debate the strategy of going all-in on upside-laden players. Who cares if you finish in second or 10th place in your fantasy league? Go for the win and hope all the risky players participate enough to carry the team.
Irving is a prime example of this strategy, though not the only one. Charlotte Hornets PG/SG LaMelo Ball is another fantastic player, but he is earning a similar reputation. As with Irving, there is no skepticism about his ability. Ball earned Rookie of the Year honors in 2021, nine seasons after Irving did so. Ball is more natural point guard and passer than Irving, and not as much of a scorer, but give it time. Ball is 22 years old. There is ample time to improve.
Unfortunately, Ball missed more than half of last season with ankle injuries, came into this season healthy and statistically sharp, and then another ankle injury in late-November cost him more than a month of playing time. Is this the next Irving?
Ball averages 46.1 ESPN fantasy points per game, right with Irving as a top-20 figure. Ball could be a top-10 fantasy option for the next decade with more health. He was a top-10 fantasy pick for the 2022-23 season, and his numbers improved, but he played in only 36 games.
It will be quite interesting to see how fantasy managers evaluate Ball for next season. He and Irving went consecutively in ESPN ADP this season, each among the top 25 and third-round selections, but question marks abound. Ball averages 24.9 PPG, 7.8 APG and 3.4 3PM. Doncic is the only other player surpassing each of those figures.
Ball is that special, but like Irving, fantasy managers have to consider the real risk of missed games. It is quite the conundrum.