Pascal Siakam has long been rumored to be traded away from the Toronto Raptors, and on Wednesday, rumor became reality as Siakam was dealt to the Indiana Pacers in exchange for Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora and three first-round picks. Let's unpack some early ramifications for both fantasy basketball and the NBA betting landscape.
Siakam began this season as one of two primary offense creators for the Raptors along with Scottie Barnes, and he was able to generate strong scoring and assist numbers both by volume (22.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) and efficiency (52.1 FG%, 2.1 assist/turnover ratio) in his first 34 games.
But, the recent trade of OG Anunoby to the Knicks in a package that brought back Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett was cutting into his fantasy value since both Quickley and Barrett are aggressive scorers in their own right.
In his last five games with the Raptors, Siakam's scoring dropped a couple of points per game ... but his 3-point percentage went through the roof, from 28.8% up to 50.0%. While some of that is a small sample effect, I think it's noteworthy that when Siakam was on the court with more threats he was able to knock down treys at a higher clip.
What happens to Siakam on the Pacers
That last effect should accompany Siakam to the Pacers, but potentially in a best-of-both-worlds scenario. Tyrese Haliburton is an All-NBA offense creator, forcing opposing teams to focus on him and creating spoon-feed assists for his teammates. At the same time, the Pacers don't have any other volume creators, which means Siakam should get the easier looks while potentially maintaining high-volume scoring opportunities.
His assists are likely to drop from the 5.1 APG he has averaged in his last four seasons with the Raptors, because Haliburton will handle the majority of the distributing on the Pacers, but it's conceivable that Siakam's scoring average, field goal percentage and number of 3-pointers made could all increase.
Also, since Siakam won't have to expend as much energy trying to create looks on offense, we could see a bump in his rebounding and defensive numbers from the 6.3 RPG and 1.1 combined steals/blocks he averaged this season in Toronto up closer to the 7-9 RPG and approximately 2 steals/blocks he averaged in his previous three seasons.
Fantasy value increases for Barnes, Quickley and Barrett
Barnes is in the midst of a breakout season, but like Siakam, his opportunities on offense went down once Quickley and Barrett got to town. In his past six games, Barnes was averaging only 15.5 PPG (46.9 FG%), 5.3 RPG and 4.3 RPG, down from 21.0 PPG (48.1 FG%), 9.1 RPG and 5.8 APG in the 34 games before that. It seemed that his fewer touches on offense were impacting both his scoring efficiency and his all-around game.
With Siakam out of town, Barnes should once again be the featured offense creator from the frontcourt/big wing position. Quickley and Barrett will be able to get their looks without negatively impacting Barnes' output. It wouldn't be surprising to see him outperform the numbers he was producing before the Knicks trade.
Meanwhile, Quickley and Barrett have both seen bumps in their production since relocating to Toronto, and the Siakam deal gives them even more opportunity. Moving forward, all three of Barnes, Quickley and Barrett project to score 20-plus PPG for the rest of the season.
Betting ramifications for the Pacers
Before Haliburton was sidelined by a hamstring injury, he had played himself into the fringes of the NBA MVP and Most Improved Player discussions. He led the Pacers to the final of the play-in tournament and has them squarely in the postseason hunt by running the NBA analog of the Greatest Show on Turf.
Or, maybe a better comp for Haliburton is what Steve Nash did with the Phoenix Suns in the middle of the 2000s. Nash was the engine for a revolutionary offense, but his primary lieutenant was a do-everything forward in Shawn Marion. And this trade feels to me like Haliburton might have just gotten his Marion-like lieutenant in Siakam.
The Pacers already had good perimeter production from Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin, and center Myles Turner is one of the better 3-and-D big men in the league. But Siakam's ability to do everything from the big forward slot, to run with Haliburton on offense, to be a threat who lightens the defensive pressure on Haliburton while also finishing at a high clip and acting as the secondary offensive hub, gives the Pacers an entirely new dimension.
According to ESPN BET, the Pacers are +900 to win the Central Division and +2500 to win the East. They could have some long-shot value in both categories, particularly in their division.
They currently sit only five games behind the Bucks and won the season series against them. It's unlikely the Bucks stumble too far outside of injury, but if Haliburton gets healthy and he and Siakam mesh, the Pacers could challenge for the best record in the East over the second half of the season. I think their potential is that high.
Futures watch: Look to Mathurin and Carlisle
Keep an eye on Mathurin in the Sixth Man of the Year race. Mathurin is currently tied for the seventh-longest odds for the award at +1200, but there isn't a runaway favorite for the award this season. If Siakam balances the first unit and Mathurin can keep producing big numbers off the bench for a Pacers team that does surge in the second half of the season, he could make a legit push for the award.
Also keep an eye on Pacers coach Rick Carlisle, currently +1500 for Coach of the Year. He has the fifth-shortest odds for the award, but a huge second-half surge from the Pacers could close the gap between him and current front-runners Mark Daigneault of the Thunder (+125) and Chris Finch of the Timberwolves (+250). Carlisle previously won this award in 2002.