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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
The week ahead
In the Forecaster and this article, we have to treat the schedule as though it's fixed so we can evaluate. Clearly, at this time, the schedule is very fluid with games being regularly postponed due to COVID-19 absences. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's an absolute necessity to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week. We'll update the Forecaster to account for postponements as they happen.
I recently compared perimeter production in the NBA before and after the surge of COVID-19 cases that began last month, to see if the incredible roster turnover had an impact on the fantasy output. A side effect of doing that study, though, was the quantitative evidence to suggest that the surge seems to have run its course and the league is back to a more normal amount of player turnover. If this continues, it suggests somewhat of a return to normalcy, particularly as we predict and project what to expect in fantasy basketball on a weekly basis. And, a return to the typical value of this Forecaster column.
With that said, this week has an unusual distribution of games and Forecaster value scores. The league is split fairly evenly, with 13 teams scheduled for four games, 14 teams scheduled for three, and three teams scheduled for two games. However, when you look at the distribution of scores, the Utah Jazz are the only team with four games to score at the top of the Forecaster.
After their 10, the next seven highest Forecaster scores, all 8s and 7s, went to teams with only three games. The Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers scored the 8s. Looking further, the teams with a talent/scoring advantage compared to their schedules were those teams with only three games, while the vast majority of teams with four games were either middle-of-the-pack squads or had tough schedules.
On the other side of the coin, the Orlando Magic remained with their characteristic 1 score with three games. The Houston Rockets joined them with a 1, in two games. The Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans, Detroit Pistons and Dallas Mavericks scored 2s, despite the Mavericks and Pelicans having four games. And, the New York Knicks and Washington Wizards scored 3s with the former in three games and the latter in two.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting, based on what we know currently of the combination of the schedule and injuries. Please check back on Monday, to see what team schedules may have changed ahead of Monday's roster lock.