Last month, I wrote about how the rule changes in the NBA seemed to be suppressing perimeter production compared to previous seasons. That was the story of the season at the time, as it shifted the fantasy basketball valuations from the backcourt to a higher emphasis on frontcourt players. The big question at the time was whether the top perimeter players would be able to adjust to the new rules and bounce back to raise their value again this season.
Immediately after that article ran on December 16, the Omicron variant of COVID-19 rocked the league.
Players were forced to enter the Health and Safety Protocol at a record-setting rate, causing teams to have to dig deep into their rosters as well as sign players from outside of the league in order to roll out complete line-ups. Several games were postponed due to teams lacking the requisite eight healthy players, and we started seeing former NBA players like Joe Johnson and Greg Monroe, who were out of the league altogether, getting another opportunity to play.
On the fantasy basketball front, this made roster management and weekly lineup setting nigh impossible. For me as a prognosticator, it was equally difficult because there were so many players giving impact production who were completely outside of the 300+ players I did year-long projections for before the season began. It did keep my weekly Diamonds in the Rough article popping, though, as every week there were new names out of nowhere that could help get a fantasy team a win in a given week.
I spoke about this phenomenon recently, during a radio interview, when I was asked about some of the monster lines that point guards like Ja Morant and Trae Young were producing at the time. And it led to a larger question: had COVID-19 supplanted the rule change as the dominant story of the season? And if so, had the huge amount of player turnover caused defenses to loosen up with the side effect of jump-starting the previously suppressed scoring of high-volume guards?
That sounded like an interesting question. So, l decided to explore.
We need to correlate perimeter scoring, particularly among the highest-volume scorers, with the increased player turnover during the height of the COVID-19 surge. So, to start, I went through my archive of daily NBA statistics for every player to have played on the season.
As of November 17, 2021, 457 players had seen the court this season. One week later, on November 24, 465 players had played. A week later, on December 1, 471 players had played. Checking week-by-week, the following chart of new players added per week clearly indicates the peak of the COVID-19 surge between December 15 and January 5:
As I pointed out last month, the top-16 backcourt scorers as of December 15 of this season were producing significantly less scoring volume and efficiency, as well as overall fantasy points, compared to the top-16 backcourt scorers of last season. If the COVID-19 absences were lessening that suppression effect around the league, we'd expect to see an increase in the output of these same top-16 backcourt scorers during the period in question.
I have archives of player production in 20-day blocks, taken in daily snapshots all season. So, let's add the 20-day production snapshots for the period from December 16 - January 5, as well as for the 20 days from New Years to current, and add it to our year-on-year comparison:
Interesting. Our little thought experiment has yielded a clear result, and it runs counter to the hypothesis. Not only did the perimeter volume scorers not increase their production at the height of COVID-19... if anything their numbers went down slightly across the board, including fantasy points per game (FP). Yes, individuals like Morant and Young had strong performances during this stretch, but on the whole the volume perimeter scorers still have not recovered their anticipated pre-season value.
Outlook
Just over a month ago, we noted that production of perimeter scorers had been suppressed this season, presumably by the new NBA rule changes, and shaped our fantasy basketball trading strategies accordingly.
Relatively speaking, frontcourt players had more trade value than their preseason valuations, while perimeter players as a whole were less valuable. With that said, there was some thought that the perimeter scorers would slowly figure out how to bounce back and thrive in the new environment and thus re-earn value.
This sparked the notion that perimeter volume producers might, as a whole, make good buy-low candidates while the frontcourt players might have some trade-high to their game.
However, we're now more than halfway through the season, and coming off a period of record player turnover that has to have loosened defenses compared to the start of the season (I just don't see Monroe coming in off the street as a defensive stopper). But, even in that environment, the top perimeter volume scorers en mass didn't show any sort of production improvement.
With each passing day, and each experiment like this that lets me re-evaluate the season as a whole, I am less convinced that we will see a perimeter volume scoring recovery this season. As the saying goes, at this point in the season, you are who your record says you are.
I'm not saying that anyone should avoid trading for dominant perimeter players. But, I'm saying to value them as they are. Don't trade for Bradley Beal with any expectation that he's going to suddenly morph into the 30-plus points per game scorer that he's been in previous seasons. Don't look for Donovan Mitchell to turn into the Playoffs Mitchell that has torched the league the past two postseasons. Likewise, don't look for the stalwart frontcourt players like Karl-Anthony Towns or Joel Embiid to suddenly slow down, barring injury.
These players have shown us who they are. So, as the NBA and fantasy trade deadlines approach next month, each fantasy basketball manager should trust in your valuations and your mouthpieces to be able to generate the best trades you can get. If you've got a James Harden, for example, absolutely talk up his potential with Kevin Durant injured and try to get 2020 value for him. But, if you're thinking of trading for Harden, really play up the numbers in this article and try to get him for free.
In other words, channel your inner Daryl Morey and Massai Ujiri, and talk your league-mates into making your team a championship lock. I believe in all of you, and as usual I can't wait to hear all your championship stories once the season ends.