Fantasy managers sure love their rookies, regardless of what fantasy sport it is, for they are blossoming with endless hope until the first struggles come. They have yet to fail at the highest level. It does not take long for investors to panic, of course, but one week into the current fantasy basketball season it is pretty clear which first-year player looks like a dominant statistical option.
Indiana Pacers SG Chris Duarte? Well, he is a nice surprise and probably has staying power. Houston Rockets SG Jalen Green? As with Duarte, expect myriad 3-pointers. Sacramento Kings PG Davion Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder PG/SG Josh Giddey and Toronto Raptors SF/PF Scottie Barnes also look like future stars, and at the least, safe rotation members for now. Perhaps we see Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham, the top pick in the real draft and first choice among fantasy managers in our preseason versions, play soon. Keep him around!
Cleveland Cavaliers PF/C Evan Mobley stands out, however. Mobley can and is doing it all so far, showing that initial concerns with how he would mesh with incumbent C Jarrett Allen were meaningless. Allen is dominating at the basket, averaging 17.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG and hitting a ridiculous 83% of his field goal attempts. Yeah, that would be some kind of record. Mobley is great, too, and actually ahead of him on the early roto Player Rater, augmenting Allen's numbers with 2.0 BPG, plus 2.8 APG, 1.3 SPG and the threat of 3-pointers.
Mobley and Allen teamed up nicely in Monday's 99-87 road win over the Denver Nuggets, proving again how these twin towers -- with several excellent, quick, scoring guards and shooters surrounding them -- can push a team into playoff contention. Sure, it is one week, but Mobley looks nothing like a rookie. The USC product, the No. 3 pick in the NBA draft, offers a mature game, one in which he takes his defense seriously. The Chris Bosh comparisons look legit. Mobley can guard anyone on the floor, regardless of position, and protect the rim, while his offensive versatility is so unique.
Allen is obviously going to slow down on the offensive end a bit, and Mobley is going to outscore him, because he can do more things. Mobley is not merely a dunker; he has a nice jump shot from top of the key, a soft touch on floaters and despite being a legit 7-footer, can drive with either hand against most defenders. This is not Stephen Curry from range, but I could see 32% on 3-pointers on several attempts per game. Who is Mobley for today's fantasy purposes? Domantas Sabonis with blocks? Jusuf Nurkic with 3-pointers? What about Nikola Vucevic? Dare to dream!
Anyway, we are getting ahead of ourselves. Mobley looks great. Trade for him if possible. He has staying power. The Cavaliers look great, with a rejuvenated Ricky Rubio and perhaps Kevin Love staying healthy as well. Collin Sexton can just score and it is fine. Allen can rebound and score some. Lauri Markkanen can hit his 3-pointers. Go Cavs.
Well, now that I gushed about a rookie one week into the season, which is a tad unique for me, time to get into our very first Hoops Trade Index of the young season, concentrating more on roto leagues, because that is more my thing. It is never too early to start trading, though I would advise excited fantasy managers to try to avoid overreacting. Still, I do think we learned some things early on, and after all, it takes only one other manager to trade!
Trade for
James Harden, PG/SG, Brooklyn Nets: My lone concern so far is that he is not getting to the free throw line much at all. It should change. I doubt it is about the new rules. He just seems... rather indifferent. No matter what happens with Kyrie Irving, Harden will get his numbers, perhaps nowhere near 30.0 PPG, but 25.0 PPG with ample boards and dimes. As for another top pick off to a slow start, do not worry about Portland Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard, either. The 3-pointers will obviously come.
Josh Giddey, PG/SG, Oklahoma City Thunder: Here is a 6-foot-8 rookie point guard with triple-doubles in his future. I really underrated this Aussie. Act now before it is too late.
Richaun Holmes, C, Sacramento Kings: An eighth-round steal in ESPN average live drafts, the Kings drafted the Baylor guard Mitchell, but did little in adjusting their rotation with the big men, unless you are a big Alex Len supporter. Holmes was great last season, and he is off to a sensational start. He hits his shots, from field and line, and seems more intent on blocking shots as well. Perhaps the Holmes investor in your league remains skeptical.
Andre Drummond, C, Philadelphia 76ers: Look, I love Joel Embiid, but he is already limping around after reinjuring his right knee something like three possessions into the opener. He will miss myriad games. Drummond is not Dwight Howard, last season's Philly backup center. He can score. He rebounds more. He piles on steals and is an underrated, sometimes flashy passer. I legitimately believe Drummond can be among the league rebound leaders this season in 25 minutes per game. He will have some 20/20 games when Embiid sits, and Embiid will sit. Act quickly while Drummond nurses a sprained ankle.
Trade away
Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Charlotte Hornets: I am a fan of each of the unrelated Bridges stars, and Miles is showing that he is considerably more than just a highlight dunker, but the top option on the Player Rater? C'mon. Bridges hit two of 10 3-point attempts in his most recent game, which is some reminder that it is not really his strong suit. I think Bridges is a top-50 player, probably more valuable than teammate Gordon Hayward, and he can average like 18.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG per game, which is great, but this is an obvious early season, statistical, sell-high situation.
Lonzo Ball, PG, Chicago Bulls: As with Bridges, Ball is a solid player and should be rostered everywhere. He likely ends up a top-50 fantasy option. He is not a top 10 option, not when he remains such a sketchy shooter. (His brother may be, though.) The undefeated Bulls have a loaded starting lineup, and Ball is a terrific passer and defender but ... he is not going to average 15 PPG and 7 APG with all the other starters getting their share of shots and assists as well. Ball also had a game last week with four blocks. Do not expect more. I expect 13 PPG, 5.5 APG and 41% shooting, same as I expected a week ago.
Jordan Poole, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors: We have a young sharpshooter here that may be overvalued because he plays with the great Steph Curry. Poole is hitting his 3-pointers and my heavens is he getting plenty of field goal chances, but I do not see much offensive versatility for roto leagues. Oh, and at some point in January, Klay Thompson pushes him aside. I think I would enjoy Poole for what he is, but there are also no shortage of one-dimensional 3-point shooters around.
Ben Simmons, PG, Philadelphia 76ers: Why did you draft him, only to have him show up on the Most Dropped list after one week? That is ridiculous! I may put Simmons on this list every week. I doubt he plays for Philly again and a trade seems unlikely until February. Good luck!
More information needed
Chris Boucher, PF/C, Toronto Raptors: People are dropping him because he is barely playing, but we know last season's numbers are repeatable and special. I would neither trade for nor trade away Boucher at this point, which is the impetus for this section!