For the first time since the 2015-16 season, the Premier League will begin with a club not called Manchester City atop the odds board in the United States.
Reigning champions Liverpool are the favorites to win the Premier League for 2025-26, showing +175 odds at ESPN BET. Arsenal, the runners-up last season, are second favorites at +225 with Man City rounding out the top three at +350.
It's the first time during Pep Guardiola's tenure, which began ahead of the 2016-17 season, that Man City have not been the favorites to win the league going into the campaign. It also marks the first time since 2011-12 that City were not one of the top two favorites, according to ESPN Research.
The lack of faith extends from the sportsbooks to the bettors themselves: Man City account for just 11.2% of the bets and 7.6% of the handle in the league-winner market at ESPN BET, fifth most for each. BetMGM and DraftKings report the same ranking for the Citizens with only slightly different metrics.
By contrast, one of the most well-supported clubs by bettors during the offseason has been Chelsea, who saw significant line movement as a result of wagering action and their Club World Cup win in July. The Blues opened as long as +2500 at some sportsbooks and have since been shortened to a consensus +800, with BetMGM reporting them as their second-largest ticket attractor at 20.2%.
"They were very impressive during the Club World Cup, including a dominant showing in the final against arguably the best team in Europe, PSG," Adam Landeka, ESPN BET vice president of sportsbook strategy and growth, said in an email. "They've also strengthened their squad considerably with the likes of João Pedro, Estêvão, [Liam] Delap, Jamie [Bynoe-]Gittens, [Dário] Essugo and [Jorrel] Hato during this transfer window."
Though Liverpool are well-supported as the favorite, leading the ticket count at DraftKings and ESPN BET, Manchester United (+2000) have also attracted attention as a longer shot after also being active during the transfer window. BetMGM and ESPN BET have the Red Devils as their handle leader for the market, with over 30% of the money share.
"Chelsea has been heavily bet this year because they won that Club World Cup last month," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "... They showed they could win a tournament like that, so at 25-1 the bettors saw value in that, and obviously there was, because now they're all the way down to 8. Man United is also being bet pretty heavily in the futures. So those two I'd say are probably our biggest hazards."
The Premier League is easily the most-bet soccer league at American sportsbooks, with BetMGM saying it accounts for 80% of its league-winner wagers among the Big Five European leagues. On a match-to-match basis, the Premier League attracts twice the amount of tickets and money as the closest league, LaLiga.
These leagues attract significant handle, with Avello saying "there's been growth every year" for soccer overall.
LaLiga is shaping up as a two-club race this season as usual, with Real Madrid the odds-on favorites at -120 and Barcelona right behind at +110, according to ESPN BET odds. The sportsbook reports a combined 97% of wagers backing either of the two clubs, with Barça attracting 93.2% of handle on their own.
Elsewhere, Napoli (+150) lead a tighter field in Serie A, which has five teams at or below +900, while Bayern Munich (-400) and Paris Saint-Germain (-800) are huge favorites in the Bundesliga and Ligue 1, respectively.