New York Knicks power forward Julius Randle comes off a wonderful season in which he became, frankly, a better basketball player than probably even the Knicks imagined. For fantasy basketball purposes, Randle became a surprise superstar, playing a ton of minutes, scoring bundles of points and effectively directing the offense, astounding everyone averaging six assists per game as well. Magnificent numbers, top-10 on Player Rater and in points formats.
The problem for the Knicks, and fantasy basketball managers, are the other Knicks, and this will be a similar theme during the 2021-22 season. As a result, it seems unlikely, based on expected draft results, that any Knicks appear on my fantasy teams.
Kemba Walker used to be a fantasy superstar back in his Charlotte Hornets days, but chronic left knee troubles derailed his path with the Boston Celtics. Walker missed nearly a third of Celtics games the past two seasons, and he was not healthy in the playoffs. Statistically, Walker was hardly the same player, shooting less from the field and free throw line, scoring less, accruing fewer assists, looking rather average. Hey, I hope he succeeds in Gotham, but he is 31. Players rarely get healthier in their 30s. Do not expect durability or perhaps even his Celtics stats, not with Randle and Derrick Rose around.
Fantasy hoops managers may always reach for Knicks because, well, it is New York, and they have some big names. Walker used to be fantastic, but now his name overrates him. People raved about Rose's 14.2 PPG and 4.2 APG, even with lots of absences. Evan Fournier is another splashy free agent signing but hardly versatile statistically. He hits 3-pointers. Randle's usage rate will remain lofty.
In the frontcourt, forward RJ Barrett starred at Duke and remains a mere 21 years old, but today he is an ordinary fantasy asset, and a drop in minutes is likely pending and will hurt his numbers. Obi Toppin enters his second season with no clear role in the rotation. Centers Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel block shots but underwhelm for scoring and rebounding, and we should stop expecting that to change. Value is critical in any fantasy sport, and with these Knicks, it is hard to find any in pending drafts.
Ultimately, in fantasy basketball, we love Randle, a strong second-round choice (and not a value in Round 1), but for other Knicks, look elsewhere. The reasons for Randle's emergence from solid fantasy asset to statistical force and the league's most improved player award are clear. New coach Tom Thibodeau put the offense in Randle's capable hands and he led them to the playoffs. Nobody averaged more minutes per game. Few had his high level of usage. Why would things change this season, just because a few established, flawed veterans joined up? Eh. Go with Randle and then look elsewhere.
The unfortunate injury section
Kawhi Leonard, SF, LA Clippers Leonard tore his ACL in the playoffs and may not play any games during the 2021-22 season. It stinks because Leonard, would have been a potential first-round selection if healthy, coming off an excellent season (though with many missed games) in which he established a career best in assists and shot 51% from the field. Now on a four-year contract, the Clippers can be patient, and he may miss the entire first year, or return just in time for the playoffs, since the Clippers likely are not worried about their seed. In redraft formats, Leonard is a very late-round pick, at best.
Jamal Murray, PG, Denver Nuggets Murray, six years Leonard's junior and not the same fantasy asset when healthy, tore his ACL in April, and the Nuggets say they are optimistic he may return in January. May happen, but every season fantasy managers rely on the advice of team personnel when it is far too early to know if a player is actually recovering on schedule. Things go wrong. There are delays. Look at what happened to Walker last season, while Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. did not play until late April! Teams are cautious, and they should be. Avoid Murray unless it is a last-round stash.
Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors: He last played in an NBA game more than two years ago. He is 31 now, coming off an ACL tear in his left knee and an Achilles tear in his right leg. Not to kick a man when he is down, but sorry to say prior to these injuries, fantasy managers overrated Thompson. He scored 20 points a night and hit myriad 3-pointers, but was not a great roto or points format option. The biggest problem here is the Warriors are hoping he can play again by Christmas, but that may be optimistic. Let someone else wait months for him to play.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers: Now 33, Love last played in more than 60 games back during the 2015-16 season. We are no longer getting 17 points and 10 boards per game. Love can still rebound when he desires, but center Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley are much younger, durable and better. Go with an upside pick in the latter rounds instead.
The unfortunate bad shooting section
Devonte' Graham, PG, New Orleans Pelicans: Graham enters his fourth NBA season with a new team, and it is actually quite a situation to succeed in. This backcourt is not so crowded and there is, in theory, assist upside with lobs to Zion Williamson. The problem is Graham cannot shoot. His career field goal percentage is 37%, and it is merely marginally better sans the 3-pointers. Everything comes from the outside and rarely does he get to the rim. In addition, I think Williamson is capable of handling a Randle-like role directing the offense, and Brandon Ingram averaged is own 4.9 APG last season. Take the under on Graham hitting 40% of his field goals, which kills a fantasy roster, and averaging 5.0 APG.
Ben Simmons, PG, Philadelphia 76ers: No matter what franchise the controversial Simmons ends up defending for, he is not a shooter. He has little intention of adding 3-point shooting to his limited repertoire, and he is a miserable free throw shooter that gets to the line more than we desire in fantasy. Sure, we tend to enjoy players that accrue rebounds and assists, but for roto purposes, it is tough to roster a point guard offering nothing in a shooting category guards tend to help us. By the way, the situation in Philadelphia may get ugly. Simmons may not be playing at all early in the season.
The switching teams section
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls: An underrated player in his three-year stint with the San Antonio Spurs, DeRozan achieved point guard numbers with different positional eligibility, and made his shots. He had high usage. We like that. However, he joins a Bulls team with a natural point guard in Lonzo Ball, a high-octane scorer in Zach LaVine and center Nikola Vucevic scores and boards. DeRozan will find it difficult to score close to 20.0 PPG, and average 5.0 APG with this crew.
Kyle Lowry, PG, Miami Heat: Another fantasy fave in recent seasons, Lowry joins a talented Heat team less firepower than the Bulls have, but still, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo pile on the assists and usage, and Lowry will see a far different role. I can see 6.0 APG and perhaps a career high rate of 3-point attempts, but not the big numbers we are used to. In addition, Lowry, 35, misses myriad games. That should continue.
John Wall, PG, Houston Rockets: Well, he has yet to officially switch teams, but as with Simmons, it seems inevitable and probably more likely because Wall is older and not as valuable. Give Wall credit for a solid bounce-back season, averaging 20.6 PPG. His assist rate and field goal shooting dropped from prior levels, no surprise, and injuries continues to be a factor. Sure, we want to see where he goes, but his name overrates him in fantasy, and there remains a decent chance he simply does not play at all the rest of this calendar year.
Andre Drummond, C, Philadelphia 76ers: Dwight Howard, now back on the Los Angeles Lakers, averaged 17.0 MPG as the primary Joel Embiid backup last season, starting some games and delivering a ridiculous rebound rate. This is the new Drummond role, and it is far different from any role he has played prior. Perhaps Drummond averages 20.0 MPG and provides stellar numbers in his starts, but do not expect double-digit rebounds for the season, or big totals in steals and blocks.
The T.J. McConnell section
T.J. McConnell, PG, Indiana Pacers: A really fun player to watch and in roto leagues a nice compiler of assists and steals, but there is nothing else for fantasy managers. We still need more scoring. McConnell does not shoot or score enough for his field goal percentage to have real impact, and as with Simmons, it becomes problematic rostering a guard offering nothing in 3-pointers. By the way, the Pacers do not want to play McConnell 26.0 minutes per game. A healthy Malcolm Brogdon would alter that.
Finally, the rookies
It certainly seems that Detroit's Cade Cunningham, Orlando's Jalen Suggs, Houston's Jalen Green and perhaps especially Cleveland's Evan Mobley have future stardom written all over them, but rookies rarely star in fantasy. Anthony Edwards took his time scoring in bunches last season as a rookie, but offered little else in Minnesota. After the 10th round or so, sure, take chances. There are always free agent contributors early in the season, most offering little upside, and Cunningham and the Jalens may be immediate stars. Chances are the value of which round you must invest is not worth it in Year 1.
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