How do you build a championship team?
This is always the main question to ask, but it's a tricky one to answer. And there are so many others.
How will you handle potential absences due to COVID-19? What can you do about the increasing amount of load management among star players? Several of the best players in the league have joined together in super teams of veterans, where none have to carry their usual load... what's that do to their value? Are the young players ready to take the next step? Are the players coming off injury ready to resume their typical production? Where will the superstars swirling in trade rumors end up playing? Will they even play at all?
In this season more than most, where there are so many swirling variables, you really need to come into your fantasy drafts with a sound plan of action. Where is the value in each round? When do you take a chance and when do you play it safe? And how early do you take your sleepers and breakout candidates?
Questions. So many questions.
To find the answers, it requires having a feel of how most drafts are playing out. So I've done my homework.
After taking part in mock drafts, looking at Average Draft Pick (ADP) data and weighing my preseason projections, I've gone through and identified some of the players I'm targeting at different points in the draft.
Players I like in Round 1: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic... and Karl-Anthony Towns
Entering last season, of the six players with a legitimate shot to be the No. 1 pick overall, it was Jokic that ran away from the pack to post the best season.
This season, Antetokounmpo and Doncic are the only two still challenging Jokic for that top spot in points leagues. Giannis had been the points king during his back-to-back MVP seasons, but last season he was focused more on the postseason than regular season accolades and that reflected in his production. This season, having won the championship, Giannis could be free to put together another monster regular season.
And Doncic was a preseason MVP pick last season, but had a slower start. This season, while the projections have him fourth in my rankings, he is the one with the highest ceiling. He has legit 30/10/10 upside, and could very reasonably be set for his own Jokic-type explosion.
James Harden and Anthony Davis have both slid out contention for the top spot; both are coming off of injury-shortened campaigns and are members of super teams, though Harden is still a clear first-rounder.
The most interesting remaining member of last year's top-6 is Towns, who has the type of all-around game without any category weaknesses that could challenge Jokic for the top spot in roto as well... if he's healthy. Towns didn't miss a single game through his first three seasons, and only missed five games through four seasons, but has since missed 59 games in the last two seasons. If Towns returns to his iron man roots, he also has the potential to be the fantasy MVP this season and will likely be there with a mid-first-round pick.
Late Round 1/Early Round 2: Bradley Beal and Jayson Tatum
I have perennial first rounders Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Davis all outside of my top-10 in season-long rankings, but there's a good chance one or more of that group turn in first round ADPs. Currently, Durant has the sixth-highest ADP and LeBron the 11th, each with the potential to move higher.
As such, some of my top-10 ranked players like Beal, Damian Lillard or Tatum may slide to the top of the second round in some drafts. This is particularly true of Beal, who currently has the 10th highest ADP but raised some questions about his every-game availability this season with his announcement that he's not vaccinated against COVID-19, which may be required in some areas of the country where games will be played. This makes Beal a high risk, high-reward prospect at the turn or in the second round. Without accounting for potential games missed, Beal ranked sixth in my pre-season projections.
Tatum is the other player available around the turn (currently the ninth-best ADP) that could be ready to pop. In each of the last two seasons, he's gone ballistic late in the season and into the playoffs to give a glimpse of what could be. Last season, after battling COVID-19 early, he popped for 28.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.3 APG and 3.3 3PG during the last 26 games of the regular season before increasing his scoring average to 30.6 PPG in the playoffs. He has the ability to match these numbers for a season.
Players I like in Round 2: Paul George and Domantas Sabonis
George currently has the 15th ADP, but he could push for the fantasy top spot. Overall. George averaged 28.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 3.8 3PG and 2.2 SPG in his last full season before joining Kawhi Leonard on the Clippers. Last season, after Leonard went down, George averaged 29.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 5.6 APG, 2.6 3PG and 1.4 SPG for the remaining eight games of the playoffs. With Leonard recovering from his ACL injury, George could put up these types of numbers or better for the full season.
Sabonis is coming off a career season, but at only 25 years old he might still be getting better. He has the 19th ADP, available late in the second round, but is value their based on his 14th ranking in my season-long projections.
Players I like in the late in Round 2/early in Round 3: Donovan Mitchell and De'Aaron Fox
Mitchell's current ADP of 20th is exactly the same as my projections-based ranking for him. So, why is he in this article? Because his achievable upside is significantly higher than projection if he achieves "Playoffs Mitchell" mode during the regular season. During the last two playoffs, Mitchell has averaged 33.9 PPG (48.0 FG%, 88.1 FT%) with 5.2 APG, 4.5 RPG, 4.9 3PG and 1.1 SPG over 17 contests. If he turned in those numbers during the regular season, he would challenge for the top spot in both points and roto leagues.
Fox has improved dramatically every season of his short career, and projects to 13th in my rankings. He is therefore strong value at his current ADP, which is 21st highest.
Players I like in Round 3: Fred VanVleet
VanVleet has taken the baton from Kyle Lowry as the leader of the Raptors' backcourt and primary offensive engine. With Pascal Siakam expected to miss the first month of the season recovering from injury, VanVleet will have even more runway to improve beyond his career performance last season. With reasonable health, I project him as a top-20 producer in points leagues that makes him good value at his current late third round ADP.
Players I like in Round 4: Jrue Holiday and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Holiday and Gilgeous-Alexander both have fourth round ADPs but have third-round grades in my projections-based rankings. Holiday is now fully acclimated to the Bucks team he joined last season, and he's back to full strength after a battle with COVID-19 derailed much of his first regular season with the squad. He mixes good volume with solid efficiency and excellent defensive numbers to produce more than name recognition might suggest on a deep, NBA champion squad.
Gilgeous-Alexander, on the other hand, is the sole proven producer on a team so deep into rebuild most of the team lacks casual name recognition. He's already shown that he can put up major numbers in this role, however, and at only 23 years old he's only getting better.
Players I like in Rounds 5-8: Dejounte Murray, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Haliburton, first rookie and what about Ben Simmons?
Murray currently has a fifth-round ADP, but he's in the very unique position of being one of the best players on a Spurs team that has no proven volume scorers. The University of Washington product is excellent at generating defensive stats and rebounds, and his scoring and playmaking have improved year-by-year. Someone has to score on these Spurs, and if Murray improves in that area he projects to a third round grade in my projections.
Harris is one of the more consistent producers in the NBA, and I have him with a fourth round grade despite his fifth-round ADP. Add in the uncertainty surrounding Simmons, and the possibility that Harris could be asked to carry a larger offensive role if Simmons sits or is traded, and Harris has higher upside than where he's being drafted.
Speaking of Simmons... what to do with him? He was going in the top two rounds last season, but there's no guarantee he plays at all this season if the 76ers don't give in to his trade demands. On the other hand, if he is traded, his output will strongly depend on whether he's added to a team with championship aspirations or traded to be the centerpiece of a rebuilding squad. His current ADP is fifth round, and I suppose that's about right for taking a chance on him. He is one of the bigger boom or bust prospects this season. Haliburton was one of the most impressive rookies last season, and there are still trade rumors surrounding some of the veteran wings on the Kings. Haliburton currently has a late seventh/eighth round ADP, but projects with a fifth/sixth round grade.
While Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green are extremely impressive rookies in good team situations, the first rookie on my fantasy draft board is Jalen Suggs. He joins a talent-depleted, injured Magic squad where he very well might be the best player from Day 1. Suggs will be tasked with creating offense as both a scorer and a distributor, and he may be the best backcourt defensive rookie in terms of steals and blocks. He's got an eighth round ADP, but I project him in the top-60.
Players I like in Round 9 and after: Robert Williams III, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kevin Porter Jr., Keldon Johnson and Marvin Bagley III
Alexander-Walker has been one of my favorite breakout candidates all off-season, and as a newly minted starter he has impact upside in the Pelicans' backcourt.
Porter Jr. saw a big uptick in value when the Rockets and John Wall mutually agreed to part ways. He was a stats monster last season as the primary option, and as the main floor general he has nice upside.
Johnson, like teammate Murray, is a talented young player on a Spurs squad that absolutely needs production this season. He was in the midst of a breakout campaign last season before injuries derailed him. Coming off an offseason where he won Olympics gold with Team USA, Johnson has impact upside as a late round pick.
Williams is one of a three-headed center position with the Celtics, but he's young and has the highest upside of the three of them. He has excellent per-minute numbers, and if he earns starter minutes he could break out.
Bagley has periods in every season when he flashes the talent that made him the No. 2 overall draft pick four years ago, but injuries have prevented him from realizing that talent. As a late-round flier, he has the potential to be an impact player if he can stay on the court.