As LeBron James enters his 19th NBA season on a championship caliber roster, there's little doubt that he's still among the best players in the NBA. But does that mean he's still worth taking in the first round of fantasy drafts?
I won't hold you in suspense.
For the first time in almost two decades, I don't have LeBron as a first round pick in fantasy hoops drafts this season. Based purely on my pre-season projections, King James currently sits at No. 16 in the rankings, a firm second-round grade, but with a lot of lot of variance based on volatile circumstances.
Part of LeBron's dominance has been traditionally tied into a) his mega-volume all-around contributions that track with his high-usage game, and b) his iron-man availability that saw him miss only 4.7 games per season on average for his first 15 seasons.
These days, both of those major strengths have come into question for LeBron. The best ability is availability, and LeBron has missed 27 games each in two of the last three seasons. Injury risk increases with age, and LeBron is entering his 19th NBA season, so that's a major concern for fantasy hoops managers when making their first-round pick.
It is also likely a concern for Lakers executives, and may have played a large part in them bringing in Russell Westbrook to help ease LeBron's load. Westbrook is the highest usage player of this generation, slotting in at second all-time in NBA Usage Percentage behind only Michael Jordan, ahead of Kobe Bryant and Allen Iverson in the top-4.
LeBron ranks fifth all-time in career usage percentage, but with Westbrook in the fold, something has to give. Westbrook has averaged a triple-double in four of the past five seasons, and his presence as the Lakers' new point guard pushes LeBron off the ball in a way unprecedented in his career.
Even in his first season with the Heat, when he and Dwyane Wade had to learn to coexist, LeBron was still the one that defaulted to floor general. That likely won't be the case this season. While this could lead to LeBron maxing out in field goal percentage, the way he did on those Heat teams, and could also be a boost to the career-best 2.3 3PG he averaged last season, on the whole Westbrook's presence caps LeBron's volume in a way that really weakens his fantasy upside.
Particularly in points leagues. LeBron James is arguably the best player in NBA history, and even two decades in he's still near the top of the league. If fantasy hoops drafts were based purely on player ability, LeBron would still be a clear first rounder. Even if we were picking only for the NBA postseason, when LeBron is sure to be deployed at max value for max minutes, I'd still have LeBron in the top-10.
But facing a marathon 82-game season, when the only rewards that matter are in the postseason, with a new mega-usage teammate and major injuries in two of the last three seasons, I just can't draft LeBron in the first round of fantasy leagues anymore. That being said, if you're in a league with me and you leave him there for my second round pick, I'd gladly deploy King James on my squad as a lieutenant with upside.