What do you want your team to look like?
This is a question that you should really ask yourself before your draft, and you should enter the draft with an answer in mind. Because the reality is, most of the people in your leagues aren't going to go into the draft with much of a plan and will just hope for the best. If you come in prepared with an idea about what the talent looks like at different parts of the draft, it will give you a leg up on the competition right from the opening tip.
There are many ways to build a championship-caliber squad, and ultimately you'll need to come up with the strategy that works best for you. In my experience, I like the old "practice makes perfect" adage, so I like to do mock drafts before my real drafts to get a feel for what players should be available.
Will my sleeper picks be there, or does everyone know about them so they go earlier than expected?
Similarly, are there really good players that are just ranked lower than expected in the draft software and thus likely to go later than they should?
Having answers to these kinds of questions beforehand is valuable when it comes time for your real draft(s).
To that end, here's a quick look at how drafts have been shaping up so far. Utilizing the Average Draft Pick (ADP) data, I've gone through and looked at the types of players that are going at different spots in the draft. Here are some of the players that catch my eye at different spots in different rounds, given their ADP slots.
The foundation
Round 1: Big Six plus Embiid
There are four players this season that I believe worthy of the No. 1 overall pick, depending on your scoring system.
In points leagues, I'm taking Giannis Antetokounmpo at No. 1 for his combo of (still scarily improving) brilliance and health.
In roto leagues, I'm taking Karl-Anthony Towns at the top because he is high volume, has no roto weakness and has been an iron man his entire career. Anthony Davis may just have higher per-game potential than either of those two, and I expect him to play at mega MVP level all season, with only his more fragile history and the potential of losing some volume to LeBron James keeping him behind the first two.
And in roto, Stephen Curry looks poised to do something awful if he reverts to 2016 form but in higher minutes, with durability again as the only real question mark. Curry is also sporting the seventh-best ADP, which means that he might be available relatively late in the round.
There are then two other players, James Harden and Nikola Jokic, that I wouldn't pick No. 1 overall but that very easily could end the season at the top. In the middle of the round, I'd be happy with either in any format.
At the end of the round, Joel Embiid is the value. He has big durability question marks, and there's some sense that he'll get more load management DNPs this season, but he is the last player on the board with legit top overall fantasy player upside. Late in the first, I take the chance.
Round 2: Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal and Paul George
Draft slot is the key, here. The best value with early second-round ADP is Lillard, who seems poised to make a run at NBA MVP and put up the best numbers of his career.
We saw what Beal was capable of last season after John Wall went down, and this season Beal projects to that type of production for the entire season. With the 14th ADP, Beal is good value in the middle of the second.
George was pushing hard for the top spot in fantasy basketball last season before his shoulder injuries derailed the ending. Those injuries could cost him the first month of this season, but once he returns he has outstanding upside for the rest of the season. With the way that Kawhi Leonard paced himself through last season, George could very well be the best fantasy producer for the Clippers this season.
Round 3: Zion Williamson and Devin Booker
Zion mania has officially arrived at the NBA. He overpowered Kevin Knox in the summer league, then followed that up by dunking over and around several Hawks in his preseason debut. I project him to do a lot of both of these things as the season progresses. He has definite 20-10 potential with strong peripherals as a rookie, making him both a strong value and fun to watch as an early-third-round pick.
Booker upped his offensive game to borderline elite last season, and this season will get to play with the best point guard of his young career in Ricky Rubio. He has first-round-value upside this season.
Round 4: Donovan Mitchell and Draymond Green
Mitchell, like Booker, looks poised to kick his game up another notch while playing next to the best point guard of his career in Mike Conley Jr. He is currently carrying an early-fourth-round ADP, but has second- round-value upside.
Green is another player that could legitimately flirt with averaging a triple-double on the season, and will have to carry a larger statistical load this season with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson out and a host of new, inexperienced players in the Warriors' frontcourt.
Middle rounds
Round 5: Terry Rozier and CJ McCollum
Rozier has outstanding upside as the new, lead engine on a very depleted Hornets squad. He currently carries a fifth-round ADP, and efficiency could be an issue, but his volume potential makes him a worthy risk where his current ADP stands at the top of the fifth.
McCollum has been very consistent during the past three regular seasons as a second option to Lillard, but he has upped his production strongly during the last two postseasons. McCollum had to carry a larger offensive load because Jusuf Nurkic was injured during both of those postseasons, just as he looks to be for a long stretch to start this season, so McCollum could start channeling playoff from opening tip.
Round 6: Lauri Markkanen, Marvin Bagley III and Kristaps Porzingis
Markkanen showed flashes of brilliance during his sophomore season, and should be poised to grow into that more fully during magical Season 3. Porzingis was going in the top few rounds of drafts two seasons ago, before he tore his ACL, and he's had 20 months to recover from that injury. While he remains a durability risk, his upside makes him worth that risk, especially by the time of his sixth-round ADP.
Round 7: Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lonzo Ball
Jackson was quietly having one of the stronger rookie seasons in his class when he went down with injury last season. The Grizzlies have re-made their team with Jackson as one of the main focuses, so he could be poised to make a leap in Year 2. Meanwhile, Ball is no longer playing next to de facto point guard LeBron James in Los Angeles, which means that he should be able to go back to what he does best as a distributor in addition to his rebounding, defense and much-hyped new jump shot.
Round 8: Ja Morant and Myles Turner
Morant is the second rookie on this list, and like Zion he has the ability to be an impact fantasy producer from opening tip. The Grizzlies traded Conley in large part to make this Morant's team to run, and only his rookie status causes him to slip to an eighth-round ADP when he likely has fifth-round potential.
Turner has battled with injury and playing time during the past two seasons, but seems to be finding his level and coming into his own. He has nightly double-double upside, a burgeoning 3-point shot and the ability to lead the league in blocked shots. He's more valuable in roto than points leagues, but good value in either by the eighth round.
Late rounds and fliers
Round 9: Andrew Wiggins, Dario Saric and Dwight Howard
Wiggins is so universally referred to as a disappointment these days that it's easy to forget that two seasons ago he averaged more than 23 PPG. With Jimmy Butler gone and more public scrutiny than ever, Wiggins could certainly return to that level this season.
Saric has moved on to an excellent situation in Phoenix, where he may also be able to build on the flashes of 20/10 upside that he demonstrated two seasons ago with the 76ers.
Howard, like Wiggins, is so often spoken down upon that it is easy to forget that he averaged 16.6 PPG, 12.5 RPG and 1.6 BPG in his last healthy season before injury and off-court issues caused him to miss almost all of last season.
Round 10: Victor Oladipo
Oladipo was a consensus top-3 round selection last season, but tore his quad tendon early in 2019. That injury could cause him to miss up to the first half of this season, but in the 10th round his upside for the second half of the season is worth considering.
Remaining value:
Robert Covington (ADP 122.3) missed much of last season injured, but he was a sneaky top-50 roto producer when healthy.
Goran Dragic (ADP 129.4) was another top-50 player that struggled with injury last season, and could be worth the risk late.
Markelle Fultz is on the list again, as he's still the top overall pick of the 2017 draft and is rumored to look good in camp for his new team, the Magic.
Brandon Ingram is a forgotten man for the Pelicans, and even though I have questions about his skill set fit on that team, he has talent and is worth the risk by his 121.3 ADP.
Rookies: Jarrett Culver, Rui Hachimura, Darius Garland, Michael Porter Jr., Tyler Herro, Coby White and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are all members of the strong rookie class that could have impact fantasy seasons and are worth spots on your radars.