All credit due to new LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard, for he is a wonderful basketball player and carried his Toronto Raptors to an unlikely championship a few months ago, but for fantasy managers, be careful here. Not only is Leonard unlikely to suit up for more than 60 games this season -- why would he all of a sudden? -- but some of the numbers he provides might not be what you think they are. Leonard scores a lot, rebounds a little and is incredibly efficient. He's also a defensive marvel, racking up the steals. But others in Rounds 1 and 2 do these things and more, and most play a lot more games.
With that, it is high time for another oft-misunderstood edition of the fantasy basketball "Do Not Draft" list, and the fanciest names on it are Leonard and
This season, the all-new Clippers welcome Leonard and George to an intriguing core that could do major damage in the wide-open Western Conference playoffs, but I worry about the regular season. Leonard fell outside the top 10 in usage rate last season in Toronto, and I don't see things changing. Leonard is far from Giannis Antetokounmpo when it comes to volume. He has never averaged more than 3.5 assists per game, and he is at barely seven rebounds per for his career. Look at the other top-20 selections. I see excellent point guards and some monster rebounding centers. I do not want to pass them up.
For George, another fantastic player, the dual shoulder surgeries during the offseason have me concerned, for I see no reason the Clippers would push him, and word is they are preparing for him to miss games into November. Again, this is a defensive star who scores and steals and hits a ton of 3-pointers, but he is not a volume rebounder nor a plus in FG%, and he is currently hurt. Perhaps he heals quickly and surpasses 70 games for the season, but I doubt it. George has been durable since the nightmare leg injury a few seasons ago. I would select him ahead of Leonard all things being equal, but again, I am big on point guards and true bigs in the early rounds -- get your assists and boards -- and I worry that George declines in each.
Everything on my "Do Not Draft" lists -- and I type 'em up for three sports! -- is contingent on value, average draft position (ADP) and what it would take to secure the players. Leonard is going in the first round of ESPN average live drafts, ahead of Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard, Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond and Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal, among others. George is going one pick after Leonard.
Hey, perhaps things work out, but Lillard played 80 games last season and does everything but block shots. Drummond rarely misses games and offers a secure rebounding base. Beal can outdo Leonard in points, assists and 3-pointers and play just about every game. You know what else? They are healthy.
OK, enough about the Clippers ... but also, avoid sixth man Lou Williams in the first seven or eight rounds. Pretty hollow numbers after the points and free throw work. Here are other players on the list, as their value in ADP just does not jibe with mine.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Dallas Mavericks
The former Knick missed all of last season recovering from a knee injury, and -- see a trend here? -- he comes with more risk than most top-50 picks because we need to see how he fits in with a new team and whether said new team intends to push him past 60 games. The combination of Luka Doncic and Porzingis is exciting, but how will you feel when the point guard gets more rebounds? Porzingis, a tall man at 7-foot-3, averaged barely seven boards per game as a Knick and hardly passed the ball. We love the potential for blocks and steals, but I would wait a year for it.
Chris Paul, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Shipped out from Houston in the Russell Westbrook deal, Paul last played in more than 61 games in a season in 2015-16, and at 34, he seems unlikely to become more durable or productive. Last season was not a good statistical one for Paul, who struggled with his shot, and it seems odd to blame James Harden. Paul still gets his assists and steals, but younger point guards who cost a top-50 pick do that as well, and offer upside. Also, do not assume a trade out of Oklahoma City is coming.
Mike Conley, PG, Utah Jazz
One of the leading West teams upgraded its point guard by adding Conley, a perennial sleeper pick in fantasy who figures to see inflated value this season. For one, the Jazz are not the Memphis Grizzlies. They have other players to score, pass and play big minutes. We thank Conley for suiting up in 70 games last season, a number he'd last topped in 2013-14, but expect considerably less usage next to Donovan Mitchell, the Jazz's top scorer. Conley should become more efficient and remain solid for his 70 or so games, but 17 points and a reduction in assists seem likely. By the way, if you think former Jazz point guard Ricky Rubio is a bargain in Phoenix, good luck with that. Rubio cannot shoot well and has not exactly piled on the steals in years.
Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana Pacers
I am all for adding value later in drafts and being patient with it, but Oladipo is recovering from a torn quad tendon, and even if he does return before January, the Pacers plan to use caution, focusing on the long term. In other words, Oladipo seems unlikely to make fantasy managers happy if he costs a top-100 pick. Even last season, he shot poorly, and the assist total that rose up likely falls with Malcolm Brogdon added.
Al Horford, C, Philadelphia 76ers
I do love the strong shooting and the steadiness of his blocks and 3-pointers, but Big Al was brought to young Philly to be the adult in the room, not to pile up numbers. He will start at power forward and hit his 3s, but his role is critical as the starting center for the 20-plus games Joel Embiid sits out, even when he feels great. You know it's coming. We will likely see a reduction in Horford's scoring, rebounding and assists from last season too. One can get most of the Horford numbers from players multiple rounds later, like Denver's Paul Millsap or Chicago's Thaddeus Young, for example (and those fellows should go after Round 10). The Sixers will love him, but winning is their goal, not statistical glory, so Horford is simply not a strong fantasy value in Round 6 or 7.
Marc Gasol, C, Toronto Raptors
Another former Grizzlies player, Gasol won a championship, but his fantasy managers liked things for him more in Memphis. Gasol is a bit like Horford, really. Gone are the days of high-teens scoring and big rebounding totals. Gasol saw major reduction in usage after the trade, and even with Leonard gone, that likely continues.
Lonzo Ball, PG, New Orleans Pelicans
I led last season's "Do Not Draft" list with this over-touted Lakers starter, and it was one of my wiser choices. Ball simply cannot shoot well, and durability is clearly an issue as well. Oh, he can pass like Jason Kidd and look good doing so, and his new team boasts finishers who need him to flourish in the transition game, but the shooting percentages are painful. Ball will not get to the line much, but when he does: Duck! I like assists in the later rounds but not when they come with an anchor or two in the percentages.