To some, the Philadelphia 76ers are already a playoff team, and to others, they've proved absolutely nothing. Well, each option seems legitimate to me! After all, this franchise pretty much tried to lose for the past several seasons leading up to this campaign in which they believe competing in the watered-down East is certainly possible. The 76ers are loaded with young talent and buoyed with veteran aid, and it sure seems that fantasy owners are caught in the middle of whether to buy in or proceed with caution.
Several preseason games are out of the way, and contests that will count are fast approaching next week, so I figured I'd add my thoughts on this intriguing bunch of players because forecasting the statistics the players can and will provide depends on myriad factors, including health, roles and skill sets. I've seen several of the Philadelphia 76ers preseason games and followed along with all the coachspeak, so using the ESPN Fantasy projections as a guide, here are one person's thoughts on how fantasy owners should be viewing things in Philly.
Joel Embiid (projected at 17.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.2 BPG): He's certainly not the most durable fellow, but he's so skilled and so full of greater upside than these tepid projections. There's no doubt he's a risk in the fourth round, which is what his ESPN ADP shows. Embiid played in 31 games last season and sure looked like a future 24-point, 10-board option who adds many blocks and some 3s and steals. When he plays, there's no reason to think he won't play well, and even with considerably more talent around him, I view his 2016-17 numbers (20.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG) as reachable. He's going to produce when he plays.
Embiid is a potential top-10 fantasy option, but if he misses half the season, he's not worth a fourth-round pick. I think 60 games are possible. The organization will likely sit him in back-to-backs the first month or three, so be prepared, but he's the focal point of Philly's offense and defense when he plays. I'm not a doctor, and nobody can tell you whether his foot or knee or something else will betray him (though the awesome Stephania Bell shared her valuable thoughts), but I do think the 76ers will be more aggressive than they're letting on if their many parts coalesce and the team gets off to a good start in the win-loss column.
From a fantasy aspect, if your first three draft picks are rock-solid choices free of injury or statistical doubt, then sure, take the chance. Embiid could be the fantasy draft pick of the year, and in a way, his fourth-round destination is a bit of a cop-out. He'll either be a lot more valuable than that or frustrate us with injuries. As someone who tends to minimize risk in early rounds, I'll likely let someone else invest.
Ben Simmons (projected at 11.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.9 APG, 49.4 FG%): Yes, this fellow stands at 6-foot-10 and is a smooth, freakish athlete, but these numbers don't add up to me. Simmons is the unquestioned point guard. Let's treat him that way. He has shown a fantastic, innate ability to find the open man in both the half-court and transition game, and he will create matchup problems for all, as he garners misses and pushes up the court. Simmons had nine assists in the first preseason game against Memphis and struggled a bit against Boston, as bigger, quicker swingmen were assigned to him, but he is a natural distributor and will get his assists for sure.
The problem is he can't shoot. Simmons remains raw when not performing traditional point guard duties. He won't help a bit in 3-pointers and also isn't likely to make close to half his field goal attempts, I predict, unless the 76ers constantly run the fast break -- and even then, it's tough to tell if he's a reliable finisher. The 76ers won't want Simmons shooting in the half court, and defenses know it.
I look at the projections for Los Angeles Lakers point Lonzo Ball and think they're light on the rebounds and assists. For Simmons, he's a bit similar. I see triple-doubles in Simmons' future, perhaps an average of 10 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 6.0 APG, but with a 45.0 FG% at best. This might be Ricky Rubio sans the 3s, steals and free throw percentage, so choosing Simmons earlier -- he's going at pick 50 -- seems awfully risky to me.
Markelle Fultz (projected at 10.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.9 APG): Milwaukee Bucks point guard Malcolm Brogdon rightly stole top NBA rookie honors from Embiid because Brogdon played every day and was steady, averaging 10.2 PPG and 4.2 APG. The reason he didn't do more certainly wasn't because of his skill set. It's because Giannis Antetokounmpo always had the basketball. In Philly, Simmons will have the ball. Fultz looks overwhelmed so far, as most 19-year-olds would be, and has been oddly tinkering with his shot, confusing his coaches.
On another team -- not the Bucks -- he could be what D'Angelo Russell might be for Brooklyn, amassing large numbers due to opportunity, as Fultz did in college with the Washington Huskies. (I hope he's not the next Evan Turner.) I worry Fultz won't shoot well from the field or the line, won't have enough chances to score, and might not defend enough to even earn 25 minutes per night. Frankly, Jerryd Bayless, who can defend and hit 3s -- and this offense will be spaced enough for him to do so -- could play more. I have to take the under on all the Fultz projections and wonder why more settled but, yes, unexciting point guards such as Brogdon, Patrick Beverley and Reggie Jackson aren't going earlier in fantasy drafts.
Other 76ers thoughts: Robert Covington is worth a seventh-round pick because he's eligible at each forward spot, and he should be safe for the minutes he'll need to get his projected 13.6 PPG and 6.3 RPG, thanks to his excellent defense which leads to many steals. He's a bit underrated, actually. ... Don't look at the numbers Dario Saric provided last season. There was nobody around him, especially when he got most of the numbers in the spring. He's an energy guy coming off the bench who perhaps gets 11 points and six boards nightly. ... Shooting guard JJ Redick averaged more than 15 points per game the past four seasons with the Clippers. I don't see how he can approach that with the 76ers, since he's not a focal point of the offense. Still, I prefer him to, say, Cleveland's JR Smith, who is going more than a round earlier in ADP, because Redick will score in double digits and shoot much better. ... Jahlil Okafor is in better shape. How can't he be, right? Still, the only reason to stash him on a fantasy bench is in case he gets traded to a wretched team where he can just be himself and score, score and score some more. Could happen.
Other notes: This year's high-rising rookie in drafts due to overrated preseason production is Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma -- and hey, good for him! The Utah product is showing he can shoot from deep and could -- that's could -- earn a spot in the rotation early on, but it's no guarantee. Can't make him a top-100 fantasy pick yet, but he'll get there any minute. ... I know it's just a preseason game, but DeMarcus Cousins had 22 points, 9 boards and 9 assists the other day, and it's more proof to me that he and Anthony Davis will coexist just fine. Cousins early in the second round is fine with me. ... A late-round point guard I'm watching closely the first few weeks: Milos Teodosic with the Clippers. He's a gifted passer and can hit 3s. ... Bulls point Kris Dunn was high on my deep-league sleeper list, but a finger injury could cost him a few weeks. Notre Dame product Jerian Grant now gets the designation. Hey, someone has to score and board and pass for the Bulls! ... Hornets swingman Nicolas Batum is out for several months with an elbow injury, so Jeremy Lamb steps in, and he showed promise when inserted into the starting lineup last year. Lamb could deserve top-100 treatment.