Fantasy owners knew when the Golden State Warriors found a way to add Kevin Durant to their stable of stars that guard Stephen Curry wasn't going to produce quite the same numbers from his MVP seasons,
This first round is about as deep as can be imagined, with plenty of firepower at the top, and fantasy managers can go in myriad directions, depending on the format. Perhaps it's not even Harden or Westbrook leading the way for you, but Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo or Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns. I wouldn't necessarily call the various machinations of first-round results I've seen overthinking, but Curry and his NBA Finals nemesis LeBron James aren't the youngest players anymore, and they keep slipping in drafts, so I'll gladly keep choosing between them with late first-rounders!
You don't need me to tell you how good Curry and James still are, so let's get right to the rest of the players I'll be looking to secure for this upcoming season. But I just don't want fantasy owners to overlook the obvious too. Curry's upside has passed, I'll grant you, but he's not just a scorer and a 3-point monster. He gets assists and steals, and he hits his free throws -- and, by the way, he misses roughly three games per season. It should feel good to secure such a strong base of numbers without injury concern, and there's always the possibility, if not likelihood, he returns to being a more efficient shooter from the field. I'm buying.
Myles Turner, PF/C, Indiana Pacers: Some view last season as the breakout, and it was terrific, but there's still significant room to grow. The Pacers lost Paul George and Jeff Teague, and Turner could be a 20 and 10 guy soon. I'm considering him in Round 2, which isn't at all crazy, since he finished last season as the No. 20 option on the Rater.
DeMarcus Cousins, C, New Orleans Pelicans: I agree he should fall out of the first round, but when I hear/read how he's viewed to have lost considerable fantasy value after the big trade, I laugh. Cousins scored fewer points after leaving Sacramento but rebounded more, had more steals, hit more 3s. He's a terrific second-rounder.
Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: Chris Paul is all sorts of awesome, but when you get right to the numbers, he's really not that much better than Conley, who averaged more than 20 points per game and should again, since the Grizz are basically the same team as last year. Reputation plays a role in fantasy, and Conley's hasn't caught up yet. Same with Atlanta's Dennis Schroder, but a few rounds later. Watch Schroder take the Conley jump up to 20 points per night.
Brook Lopez, C, Los Angeles Lakers: There's a theme for the really tall players I covet, and that's the shooting percentages. Hit your shots, please. We don't enjoy DeAndre Jordan pulling down our free throw numbers, and guys like Kevin Love drag down our field goal percentage (check out my "Do Not Draft" blog entry here). Lopez doesn't feel like rebounding all that much, and that's a drag, but 20 points per with two blocks will work every time. By the way, I'll take his less-talented brother in the final round every time, too. Robin Lopez should get his percentages back up and score and board more on a rough Bulls team.
D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Brooklyn Nets: Acquired in the Lopez trade, Russell has been a disappointment through two seasons, and perhaps he won't be a real-life building block, but the Nets are so bad that someone has to score and generate numbers. It seems to me that Russell's projections are too cautious for the extreme lack of talent around him.
Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic: I generally pass on centers with paltry blocked-shot totals, and Vucevic did not shoot well last season, but he also wasn't handled properly. He shouldn't be coming off the bench and shouldn't be shooting 3s, either. I sense a mild bounce-back campaign. And let's throw Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas into this section as well. Great shooter from the field and line, and to me, a far better value three rounds after Portland's Jusuf Nurkic.
Serge Ibaka, PF, Toronto Raptors: Hard to find this combination of blocks and 3-pointers after the fifth round, and he hits his shots. Not everyone needs to score 20 a night.
Trevor Ariza, SF, Houston Rockets: The field goal percentage won't help, but I like the fact that he ends up in the top five for steals every season, and at small forward. Fantasy owners tend to overlook steals, but not all point guards get them. Plus, the addition of CP3 should help get Ariza better outside looks, so perhaps he can shoot better.
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF, New York Knicks: Trading away Carmelo Anthony opens up many, many shots for other Knicks, and Kristaps Porzingis should improve, but he doesn't seem like the type to demand a ton more shots. I could envision Hardaway scoring 17, 18 points a night. Sure, it's just points, 3s and free throws, but it's also in the 10th round or so, plus the multi-eligibility, and that works. Bad teams need love too. If only I could find some Bulls who will score without shooting 35 percent from the field!
Malcolm Brogdon, PG, Milwaukee Bucks: One of my fave late-round assist guys, it was he and not Joel Embiid who won the league's top rookie honors. Brogdon probably can't lead the team in assists with the Greek Freak around, but ... why can't he? The difference was one assist per game, and one of those two players was a rookie sure to improve. Just saying, I can see Brogdon averaging 12 PPG and 6 APG in time. As for Embiid, the 76ers are likely to be cautious with him, but if he could play 70 games, he'd be a top-20 player.
Derrick Favors, PF, Utah Jazz: Always look at the prior season's ADP or rankings or whatever, and then find the players who looked good then but not so much now. What changed? Favors averaged 16 PPG and 8 RPG for two seasons. Then he hurt his knee. The knee is now fixed. I'll take close to 16 PPG and 8 RPG after the top 100.
Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets: Of course, it's nicer when your shooting guards can either rebound or accrue assists, but Harris will be there in Round 9 or 10, and he'll score 15 a night, hit his 3s and, most important, hit his shots. Harris made more than half of his field goals last season. It's just so difficult to justify selecting guys like Wesley Matthews, who can't even shoot 40 percent.