Dwight Howard has enjoyed a long and illustrious career with four -- well, now it's five -- franchises and will ultimately land in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, and for this he should be congratulated. Howard has averaged double digits in points and rebounds each of his 13 seasons, and when he shoots from the floor and not the free throw line, he has made more than 58 percent of those shots. The problem for fantasy hoops purposes is
This matters a great deal in straight rotisserie (not points) league formats because no matter how many Stephen Curry types you use to balance out a free throw percentage like that, it becomes difficult to make it work. As a veteran fantasy basketball player, I'm pretty sure each and every time I chose to roster Howard -- I mean, one thinks how much impact can it have, right? -- it might have taken a mere matter of weeks before I was looking to unload him to another team for anything useful. The good stuff Howard provides might not be worth it to you.
In fantasy hoops, just like baseball, the averages matter, and whether it's a hitter who can't bat his weight or a pitcher with an ERA in the stratosphere, it's just not worth it. We should strive to construct balanced squads, regardless of fantasy sport, with a proper mix of risk/reward, floor/ceiling, durability/brittleness -- and inviting a low field goal or free throw percentage, in a standard basketball league, presents immediate concerns. Howard shot 53 percent from the charity stripe last season, albeit with his lowest figure of attempts since he was 19, but still, only 22 players averaged more than his 5.7 attempts per game.
There are other concerns, of course. Howard is closing in on 32 years old and, well, doesn't always seem like the best teammate. He's on a new team, the Charlotte Hornets, and they employ younger centers in Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky who each made significant improvement during the 2016-17 season, so the Howard acquisition seems odd. Howard is no longer a major shot blocker -- he fell short of 100 last season -- and since his field goal attempts are down, it has a minimizing effect on the great percentage. Howard's scoring percentage has dropped each of the past three seasons and should again.
OK, so that's enough piling on. The point is made. But there are other culprits such as LA Clippers actor DeAndre Jordan and Detroit Pistons double-double machine Andre Drummond, who will be avoided by me as well. In these cases, it's not about draft value. I'll avoid them later on in drafts too.
The same goes for a few guards with no real excuses, like new New Orleans Pelicans passer Rajon Rondo and LeBron James' buddy JR Smith with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Nice guys I'm sure -- well, I'm actually far from sure -- but there are other ways to secure rebounders and shot-blockers and other stats without handicapping your team in a percentage.
Blake Griffin, F, LA Clippers: There's no questioning the talent, as Griffin annually scores more than 20 points per game and contributes nicely in rebounds, assists and field goal percentage, but he's played an average of 54 games the past three seasons. The lack of durability is a major problem, and it gets tiresome having to replace the big numbers. Unlike with the free throw clanking fellows, Griffin doesn't hurt a category, and I would select him if the price/round was right, but I don't think it is with an ADP in Round 4. With Chris Paul bolting town, so many people expect Griffin to have his best season yet. Perhaps he will in the averages, but will he even make it through 70 games?
Isaiah Thomas, G, Cleveland Cavaliers: Another fantastic player -- everyone on this somewhat dour list is, by the way -- but Thomas is dealing with a serious hip injury, and the latest news has his new team merely hoping he'll be able to play this season. That doesn't sound so optimistic to me! There's always a time to invest in players dealing with injury, I admit, and if Thomas slips to late in drafts, then sign me up, but that rarely seems to occur. Thomas averaged 28.9 points per game last season, which was already going to go way down playing next to LeBron James. Thomas was awesome. Someone's going to spend a draft pick in the first five rounds expecting a lot of games and points. I won't.
Jabari Parker, F, Milwaukee Bucks: Same as Thomas, really. Parker tore his ACL in February. We're hoping he'll play next February, but there are a mere three bench spots available in ESPN leagues, and it's really difficult to invest one in a player who might not play until after the All-Star break. You'll simply end up punting him aside before that, so 'tis better to use the draft pick on an immediate contributor rather than pretend you have the patience for this.
Ricky Rubio, PG, Utah Jazz: Watching him pass the basketball is a joy. He's a magician out there. Rubio also piles on the steals and hits his free throws. But he can't shoot. He has tried, and it doesn't work. Rubio shot a sad 40 percent from the field last season, and it was a career high. Let's not presume it's a trend and he'll get the mark up to 42 percent soon -- ESPN Fantasy projects him to shoot .38.7 FG%!. As a result, Rubio barely scores in double digits on average. We can all live with an active player or two who doesn't score a ton, I suppose, but with Rubio, this is what he is, and there are enough point guards who can score and hit 3-pointers as well.
Kevin Love, F, Cleveland Cavaliers: He's still pretty good, and the fourth round isn't the worst place to secure him, but I'm a point guard/power forward roster builder, and when I try to do that, I want the forward types to get more than 21 blocks in a season. OK, so Love missed games. The season before, Love blocked 41 shots. That's really low, and it forces a fantasy owner to chase blocked shots later in drafts. I try to get a few legit shot-blockers -- as well as point guards who can contribute in 3-pointers -- in the first 10 rounds. It's not like Love shoots 50 percent from the floor either.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets: Fine, you want a potential top-10 guy, here it is. Jokic is kind of like Love in that you might optimistically get a 20-10 guy (that's points and rebounds, by the way), but centers need to block shots. If your center doesn't, then you're reaching for Robin Lopez in Round 9, and nobody wants to be doing that. I'll take Jokic in Round 4, but of course he won't be there.
CJ McCollum, G, Portland Trail Blazers: I actually like his game a lot, but if he's your point guard, you're in trouble with assists. McCollum scores and hits the 3 and shoots well, so if you have three other assist guys, great. If he's your first point guard and costs a top-20 pick, it can be a problem. I'll wait a round or two for Toronto's Kyle Lowry instead.
Lonzo Ball, G, Los Angeles Lakers: Every summer we hear about "special rookies" who can't possibly fail. Well, I don't deny the upside for Ball to be the next Jason Kidd, but it's not happening in Year 1. What is likely to happen is this fifth-round pick in ADP shoots terribly -- from the field and line -- and doesn't score in double digits, like most rookies. Since Ball is the one going first among rookies, he gets the extra attention here. Papa would be proud. Pass.