Welcome back to another edition of the Insider cheat sheet, our weekly roundup of crucial fantasy basketball information taken from ESPN's group of NBA Insiders.
Every Friday throughout the season, we'll provide a rundown of the most important bits of intel. You'll gain guidance from some of the biggest names in the game -- including Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh and Kevin Pelton -- to take your fantasy teams to the next level.
Here's what our experts are saying about the big questions for the week ahead:
Will Warriors' record-setting offense regress?
When Kevin Durant decided this offseason to join the Golden State Warriors, a team coming off the best regular season in NBA history, many (including myself) immediately anointed them the future league champions. I mean, come on, how do you stop KD, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson? There's just too much talent to defend, and any double-team means an elite scorer is open.
Despite a slight hiccup early in the season, Steve Kerr's team is proving everyone right. The Warriors have won 11 of their past 12 games and boast the NBA's top offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions). It's so potent that Kevin Pelton checked in on whether it'll go down as the best ever.
"The Warriors have improved over the course of the season as they've quickly adapted to Durant's presence in their starting lineup," Pelton writes. "Their season-long offensive rating has consistently trended up since an ugly loss to the Los Angeles Lakers dropped Golden State to 4-2. Since that Lakers game, the Warriors have posted a nearly unthinkable 119.9 offensive rating. Just twice in its past 11 games has Golden State failed to reach a 110 offensive rating."
Fantasy owners are sure reaping the benefits. The ESPN Player Rater has Durant No. 1 overall thus far. Curry checks in at No. 5 with Green at No. 16 and Thompson at No. 39.
That said, Pelton warns that history shows us we need to be wary about these statistics lasting all season. Only a handful of teams in NBA history have put up record-setting numbers at this point in the season. All saw their offensive rating decline by season's end.
"The other area the Warriors are surely due for regression is related to health," Pelton says. "When Draymond Green missed Saturday's game because of an ankle contusion, it was the first time all season a member of Steve Kerr's core seven-man rotation sat out. Even if the starters stay healthy, they're likely to get some rest over the course of a long season.
"As the four stars eventually get time off, don't expect Golden State to necessarily keep up this offensive pace. But if the Warriors can come anywhere close, they will indeed prove the best offense the NBA has ever seen."
This is typically where I say "Trade (record-setting player)! There's no way he'll keep it up all season!" But I'm not going to do that today. Pelton projects the Warriors to dip overall but not to a significant degree. They could legitimately be the best offense of all time. Though you should be cautious (and expect a slight regression as the season progresses), don't worry. Sit back and watch them carry your team deep into the fantasy playoffs.
Replacing Mike Conley
Fantasy owners who had Mike Conley in their lineup took a major hit when news broke that the Memphis point guard was diagnosed with fractures in his lower back and is expected to miss roughly six weeks. Before the injury, he was averaging 19.2 points, 5.7 assists and 3.6 rebounds a contest and ranked as the No. 19 overall player on the ESPN Player Rater. Conley is widely considered one of the most underrated players in the NBA during his career. How does one go about filling his production?
Let's start with his replacements on the Grizzlies, Andrew Harrison and Wade Baldwin.
"Challenged to score in the best of circumstances, the Grizzlies have mustered a dismal 91.1 offensive rating without Conley, far worse than the last place Orlando Magic (95.4 points per 100 possessions)," Pelton writes. "Those numbers will surely improve as rookie backups Andrew Harrison and Wade Baldwin play more minutes with the starters. Memphis has at least been competitive when Harrison has played with Gasol, getting outscored by just 0.2 points per 100 possessions."
So from a team perspective, there is a drop-off, but not a major one. How about for fantasy purposes? Whom can you pick up, and should you stash Conley until he's healthy? ESPN's Ohm Youngmisuk believes you should keep him on the roster:
"Obviously, in deep leagues, you are stashing Conley. But unless your waiver wire has someone like Sean Kilpatrick (who will get plenty of minutes and shots, even when Jeremy Lin returns, and is available in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues) or Lin (available in more than 40 percent of leagues and might be back soon) or Reggie Jackson (available in more than 30 percent of ESPN leagues), I'd say stash Conley and try to be aggressive in cutting someone else on your roster for someone on the waiver wire who might be a steadier and more consistent producer, and hope Conley is back in a little over a month from now."
Kyle Soppe, however, is greatly intrigued by the potential of Harrison with more time on the court.
"The point-guard depth isn't all that great, so replacing Conley the same way the Grizz figure to with Andrew Harrison is very much in play for fantasy owners," Soppe says. "He's obviously very raw, but at 6-foot-6, he is a tough matchup, and he should assume a greater role than most other available point guards on your waiver wire. If Harrison has already been scooped up, Kris Dunn and Seth Curry are two viable options who are owned in too few leagues right now."
Minnesota's second-half struggles should improve
The Timberwolves entered the 2016-17 season as a popular choice to be among the NBA's most improved teams and potentially compete for a spot in the playoffs. This thinking was largely based around Tom Thibodeau being hired as head coach of one of the brightest young cores in basketball.
However, one month in, the Wolves are sitting at 5-13 and 14th in the Western Conference -- they are obviously leaving a lot to be desired.
Pelton recently delved into the numbers to see why, despite all of this talent and promise, Minnesota is failing to deliver on high expectations. Much of his findings centered around the Timberwolves being a dramatically different offense in the second half of games:
"Surprisingly, the NBA's No. 1-ranked first-half offense shares something in common with its No. 30 second-half offense: They're both the same team -- the confounding Minnesota Timberwolves.
"Comparing Minnesota's offensive factors in the two halves reveals a completely different team. The Timberwolves are top 10 in three of the four key components of offense before halftime but don't rank that high in any of them after the break." Here's the good news for fantasy owners: There's no doubt the Timberwolves are set to improve as the season goes on. As Pelton notes, they actually aren't taking bad shots in the second half (in fact, their spots on the floor may be better than the first). They just aren't hitting and likely will see an uptick in made field goal percentage.
"Take the difference in shooting on non-corner 3-pointers. In the first half, the Timberwolves are making 44.4 percent of these attempts, second in the league and a hair behind the San Antonio Spurs. After halftime? Well, stop me if you've heard this before, but Minnesota's 27.2 percent accuracy is worst in the NBA."
Keep in mind that Minnesota's prolific first-half stats are due for slight regression, too. Both the first- and second-half stats are likely to even out. That said, I think it's worth looking into possible deals for Timberwolves players knowing that the potential ceiling is much higher than where they currently stand. At this point, only Karl-Anthony Towns (No. 15 on the Rater) is an elite fantasy performer. But the next two on the list? Gorgui Dieng is No. 47 and Zach LaVine is No. 48. Andrew Wiggins checks in at No. 100(!). I see all of the latter three having improved stats as the season goes along. Jump on them now before their value increases.