If there was one position in the NBA where a team could not afford an injury, it was probably the Memphis Grizzlies and point guard Mike Conley.
Just how painful might Conley's injury prove? Let's take a look.
Memphis struggling without Conley
Memphis' inexperienced depth makes Tuesday's news devastating to the Grizzlies, with Conley expected to miss six to eight weeks with a transverse process fracture in his lower back.
Though the Grizzlies stand fifth in the Western Conference at 11-7, they've been outscored -- by a total of seven points -- on the season, and their poor play with Conley on the bench is the key reason why.
When Conley has played with All-Star center Marc Gasol, according to NBA.com/Stats Memphis has outscored opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions -- nearly as good as the Cleveland Cavaliers' net rating over the course of the season (plus-8.3).
Take Gasol out of the equation and the Grizzlies with Conley are still slightly positive at plus-1.7 points per 100 possessions, similar to this year's Boston Celtics (plus-2.3). But put Conley on the bench and Memphis' net rating drops to a dismal minus-13.8 points per 100 possessions, worse than any team has been over the course of the season. (The Philadelphia 76ers, at minus 10.4, are last in net rating.)
Challenged to score in the best of circumstances, the Grizzlies have mustered a dismal 91.1 offensive rating without Conley, far worse than the last place Orlando Magic (95.4 points per 100 possessions).
Those numbers will surely improve as rookie backups Andrew Harrison and Wade Baldwin play more minutes with the starters. Memphis has at least been competitive when Harrison has played with Gasol, getting outscored by just 0.2 points per 100 possessions. But Conley's absence further stretches a Grizzlies perimeter rotation already missing starting forward Chandler Parsons (likely out another week with a bone bruise in his left knee) and Parsons' backup, James Ennis (out for a similar period with a strained calf muscle).
Memphis' questionable depth and injury history were the biggest reasons statistical projections were down on the Grizzlies entering the season. With Conley out for perhaps two months, that pessimistic vision is apparently becoming reality.
Projecting Memphis without Conley
Without Conley, projections for the Grizzlies based on the multi-year, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) drop further. Based on what the rotation might look like with Harrison averaging 30 minutes per game and Baldwin 18 a night, assuming Ennis and Parsons return on schedule, RPM pegs Memphis as having the point differential of a 31-win team in Conley's absence.
That projection presumes an average schedule, and unfortunately for the Grizzlies their slate over the next two months looks more challenging than that. Starting with tomorrow's visit to Toronto to play the Raptors, Memphis faces last year's four conference finalists a combined four times in the next six weeks, with two more crucial matchups against the Houston Rockets in the following two weeks.
ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), which rates the Grizzlies slightly worse than league average with Conley because of their poor point differential, had projected a 10-12 record over the next six weeks and a 13-15 record over the next eight.
Without Conley, a realistic expectation for Memphis is 8-14 over the next six weeks or 10-18 over the next eight. Depending when he returns, that would put the Grizzlies -- currently 11-7 -- at somewhere around 19-21 on the short end of Conley's timeline and around 21-25 on the long end.
If Memphis can match those expectations and continue to win at a 60 percent clip after Conley's return, which would mean avoiding additional key injuries, the Grizzlies should still be able to finish .500 or better. In a year where just eight Western Conference teams have started .500 or better, that would likely be enough to earn a playoff spot.
And remember, there's a history of Memphis overcoming a midseason injury to a key player make the playoffs. That's what happened in 2013-14, when the Grizzlies were 17-19 when Gasol returned from a sprained MCL but went 33-13 thereafter. That kind of finishing kick isn't likely for this year's team, but Conley's injury isn't, by itself, necessarily a reason to expect Memphis to miss the playoffs barring further health problems.
Earning home-court advantage, however, might be a different story. That will probably take at least 50 wins -- BPI projects four West teams to win 50 games or better -- and would have been difficult for even a healthy Grizzlies team. Losing Conley probably rules out that possibility.
Could Memphis make a move?
Even before Conley's injury, adding a veteran point guard was one avenue for the Grizzlies to improve. Expect renewed consideration of that possibility in his absence. In practice, though, that could prove difficult.
As Bobby Marks of the Vertical noted on Twitter, Memphis could be eligible for a hardship exception to add a 16th player when Conley misses his third game, provided Ennis and Parsons aren't back. However, that exception would only last until one of them returns, so if Memphis wants to add a long-term solution it would have to free up a roster spot by waiving a player -- likely rookie wing Troy Williams, who's been part of the rotation at times and is on a team-friendly contract that is non-guaranteed for next season.
The Grizzlies might be willing to cut Williams loose for an upgrade like Mario Chalmers, who was Conley's backup last year before suffering a ruptured Achilles that has sidelined him at the start of this season, but Chalmers is not physically ready yet, according to ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. Jarrett Jack, waived in training camp by the Atlanta Hawks as he comes back from his own serious injury (a torn ACL), is another possibility. Kendall Marshall, Toney Douglas and Will Bynum are expected to work out for Memphis this week, but probably wouldn't be worth losing Williams.
The trade market also doesn't seem likely to offer much help. Shelvin Mack would have been an ideal fit but is now playing ahead of Dante Exum in the Utah Jazz's rotation. Other point guards who are out of rotations, like Raul Neto in Utah, wouldn't likely be substantial upgrades on Harrison and Baldwin.
So, with Conley expected to return by early February, the Grizzlies might just try to survive his injury by relying on their rookie backups, for better or worse.