The deal
Detroit Pistons get: Forward Tobias Harris
Orlando Magic get: Guard Brandon Jennings, forward Ersan Ilyasova
The Pistons and Magic kicked off trade deadline week with a multi-player deal involving three guys whose names had popped up here and there on the rumor mill, but this specific swap had not been suggested. We might view our knee-jerk reactions differently once the deadline dust settles, but at first blush, it seems like the move should have an immediate, positive impact for only one of the three players involved. However, there are always ripple effects to deals such as this.
Let's take a look at what the deal means from a fantasy perspective.
What it means for the Pistons
Harris is the guy whose production should rise almost immediately. He's in the first season of a four-year, $64 million contract, and you don't take on cap space like that if you aren't committed to a player for the long haul. He'll start in Ilyasova's place, between Andre Drummond and Marcus Morris on Detroit's front line. The fit with Harris and Morris will be interesting -- both players are listed at 6-foot-9, 235 pounds, and both have combo forward skill sets.
Although redundancy in any lineup can be tricky, the combo forward tandem is in a sense similar to what Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy had in Orlando with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Just as that latter duo were paired to accentuate the abilities of Dwight Howard, so too will the results of a Harris/Morris pairing be judged by how they affect Drummond. However, in the long term, Stanley Johnson can be expected to take over at the 3 in Detroit, with Morris and his team-friendly contract taking a reserve role. That won't happen this season.
Harris will have a larger offensive role than he did in Orlando under Scott Skiles. Although he was averaging more than 32 minutes per game -- and should get at least that in Detroit -- Harris' usage rage (19.1 percent) was 2.4 percent under his career average and 3.4 percent off his 2014-15 total. In Detroit, Reggie Jackson and Drummond are the top options, but Harris could surpass Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Morris as the third guy. Ilyasova was averaging more shots on a per-minute basis that Harris, but the latter has more ability to create shots for himself. I can see Harris easily tacking on two or three points to his 13.7 season average while maintaining his other averages.
Meanwhile, the other numbers for the primary Pistons should hold steady, but you have to worry about the fact that Harris isn't as good a long-range shooter as Ilyasova. If that becomes a problem for the unit, Harris could start to lose minutes to Anthony Tolliver.
What it means for the Magic
Chances are this won't be the last deadline move by Orlando, which makes reading the Magic's new potential depth chart more difficult. For one thing, there is no sane reason to have Ilyasova and Channing Frye on the same roster, so you'd expect the latter to be on the move some time in the next couple days.
Jennings, still only a couple months removed from his return from a year of injury rehab, isn't likely to play a larger role for the Magic than he did for Detroit. When healthy, he's a better offensive player than Elfrid Payton, but the Magic are developing the latter. Neither moves the needle as a floor spacer and both present issues when paired with Victor Oladipo. I'd expect Jennings to continue what he was doing for Detroit in a similar role.
You can expect worse for Ilyasova. If Skiles and Magic GM Rob Hennigan felt having a stretch four was some kind of magic tonic, then Frye would have been playing more minutes. It's likely the Magic will remain committed to blossoming forward Aaron Gordon. That means Ilyasova's numbers and court time are likely to drop.
So why make these moves at all? It's probably financial. The Magic re-signed Harris to a sizable contract the past summer during his restricted free agency, but it was far from certain that he was a good fit for the talent the Magic have accumulated. Trading him now frees up future cap space and gives Orlando two veterans to work with. Jennings' contract is up after the season, while Ilyasova has only a small guarantee. Given these factors, the newest Magic aren't building blocks and aren't likely to steal minutes from the guys who are.
Even so, there could be an immediate payoff for rookie Mario Hezonja, who will battle Evan Fournier for minutes at 3. Hezonja has played with the swagger pre-draft reports suggested he would, and -- to put it mildly -- he hasn't been at all shy about taking shots, even in crunch situations. His court time of late has been on the rise. Over his past seven games, Hezonja has averaged 10.3 points in just over 20 minutes while chipping in with assists and a couple 3s per outing. Skiles would face a balancing act in managing the shots of Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic and Hezonja, but that's a hill he's going to have to climb at some point anyway.
The issue with fit is why Jennings should remain a reserve, but it's also a reason Fournier could return to the lineup. If the latter comes to fruition, it might be Oladipo who becomes the sixth man, as evidence has mounted that, given their current skill levels, Oladipo and Payton just don't work as a full-time backcourt.