We're only about 48 hours away from the NBA trade deadline. The last great reshuffling of fantasy value of 2015-16 is nigh.
The trade deadline doesn't have to feature a marquee name to register a fantasy impact. The aftershocks of last season's deadline are still reverberating at point guard.
No Chris Paul- or Russell Westbrook-sized names swapped jerseys. But Goran Dragic, Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Thomas, Brandon Knight, Reggie Jackson and Michael Carter-Williams all headed for new situations that changed their value, in some cases for better and in some for worse.
In Boston, Isaiah Thomas is a top-15 player. In Sacramento, Rajon Rondo is top-25.
The hidden truth buried in the hype of every trade deadline? It's as much about the taking away of value as it is about enhancement.
Every positive action produces an equal negative reaction.
It's not as if new aggregate statistical value is created by trades. Those new numbers are being taken away from some poor unsuspecting player.
In Milwaukee, MCW is barely top-80. In Miami? Dragic fell to 94th on the ESPN Player Rater -- Jerryd Bayless territory.
The 2015 trade deadline was understated, yet aggressive. The 2016 deadline has the potential to be a feeding frenzy. The potential is fed by five factors...
1. The Summer of Kevin Durant.
2. Grievous injuries to high-impact names (Marc Gasol, Jimmy Butler, Blake Griffin, Tyreke Evans and maybe Chris Bosh).
3. The collective existential disappointment of several teams that have underwhelmed (Houston, Atlanta, Washington, Sacramento).
4. The looming sense of defeatism that this side of Gregg Popovich, no one possesses even a puncher's chance of defeating the Warriors in the playoffs.
5. Unabashed tanking (Philadelphia, Los Angeles Lakers)
This time of year, I get a lot of questions about making preemptive trades in fantasy in anticipation of potential actual NBA swaps.
My stock answer? Don't panic. Control what you can control. Three-quarters of trade rumors disappear into the ether.
But that doesn't mean we can't take a moment to make mental preparations for potential moves in the wake of Thursday's deadline.
Let's take a quick trip through the names being bandied about in order of statistical importance. Then we'll add a quick potential upgrade/downgrade take.
Hassan Whiteside, PF/C, Miami Heat (18th on player rater) Result: potential downgrade
Whiteside's impending huge free-agency payday packs a lot of fantasy import. Now we have to factor in Bosh's fresh, very serious injury concern.
A week ago, it looked like Whiteside was a decent candidate to be dealt. Now, one would assume Whiteside isn't going anywhere, unless Erik Spolestra knows something about Amare Stoudemire potential the rest of us don't.
Fantasy-wise, this means owners rostering Whiteside can relax. Staying in Miami, we relatively know what to expect. On another team, Whiteside gets punctuated with nothing but question marks.
Could he perform in another rotation? Will he relax after a big payday? Miami's willingness to deal him doesn't register as a vote of confidence.
Pau Gasol, PF/C, Chicago Bulls (20th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
With Jimmy Butler on the shelf, Gasol's value will only go up. Not even a reunion with Phil Jackson in New York could improve Gasol's current statistical situation. Gasol could be an effective mentor to Kristaps Porzingis, but Porzingis would vulture Gasol's stats.
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (23rd on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
Get used to seeing Nets on this list. In fantasy, impact frontcourt scorer on bad teams tend to overperform. Lopez's usage rate is a sky-high 25.4. He won't get that many touches on any other team.
Al Horford, PF/C, Atlanta Hawks (26th on Player Rater) Result: potential hold
The Hawks have disappointed, but they still run one of the NBA's better offenses. Horford's hidden value lies in his ability to distribute the basketball (3.1 assists per game).
Furthermore, with Horford's impending free agency, it's hard to see a team making a serious play for Horford unless it's a rental situation. The only teams renting would be potential playoff squad with established offensive hierarchies.
One intriguing potential destination: Boston. One assumes Boston would have to deal frontcourt depth in acquiring Horford, which would open up plenty of opportunities. And a Brad Stevens-Horford pairing would make some serious statistical noise.
Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (27th on Player Rater) Result: potential hold
If Griffin is moved, it'll be to a destination where he'll remain a No. 1 offensive option. But despite the locker room tension, it's impossible to see Griffin being paired with a better point guard than Chris Paul. A trade would probably balance out increased usage with a drop in efficiency.
Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF, New York Knicks (28th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
The only rumored Anthony deal he'd probably permit would be the three-way to Cleveland. Ask Kevin Love if playing in Cleveland raised his statistical ceiling.
Speaking of...
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (35th on Player Rater) Result: potential big upgrade
There's no question that the Cavs' coaching switch to Tyronn Lue improves Love's fantasy potential. But a move to Boston -- anywhere, really -- would undoubtedly be a welcome change of scenery. It's amazing how quickly people forget just how numerically superhuman Love was as recently as 2013-14 (26.1 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.5 3-pointers per game).
The Denver Nuggets
Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF (47th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
Will Barton SG/SF (58th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
Kenneth Faried, PF (103rd on Player Rater) Result: potential upgrade
I'll be interested to see if Boston, Phoenix or Denver parlays multiple assets into a front-line player.
Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (49th on player rater) Result: potential upgrade
This is an uneducated hunch: I think Rubio benefits from a change of scenery. It just depends on where he lands. If it's New York, then his fantasy potential gets a slight upgrade.
Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks (54th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
Injuries are the reason Teague is this low on the Player Rater. Teague has looked like his old, productive self as of late. It's hard to gauge how he'd perform in another system, but Mike Budenholzer's fits Teague like a glove.
Victor Oladipo, PG/SG, Orlando Magic (60th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
Young players with upside need minutes. Despite his early season struggles, it's hard to see Oladipo snagging more minutes in another locale. If he sticks in Orlando, I like Oladipo as a buy-low candidate.
Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets (66th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
Here's the thing: Young's true (mediocre) fantasy value is masked by his relatively high points per game average. He's a decent rebounder, and is solid in steals. But Young doesn't shoot 3s or block shots.
Even in a low-expectations situation like Brooklyn, Young has been down this season. If he's moved, it's likely to a contender (Toronto), where his minutes and touches get dinged.
Jrue Holiday, PG, New Orleans Pelicans (64th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
Tyreke Evans is done. Holiday is off his minutes limit and is playing at an All-Star level. I can't fathom a deal at this point.
Ryan Anderson, SF/PF, New Orleans Pelicans (79th on Player Rater) Result: potential upgrade
This all depends on destination. If Anderson goes to team where he can start (Miami without Bosh?), his value rises.
Michael Carter-Williams, Milwaukee Bucks (80th on Player Rater) Result: potential hold
Carter-Williams' early career stats were artificially overinflated by the Sixers' high-pace, low-expectations dynamic. Is this who Carter-Williams really is? Maybe Jason Kidd is secretly maximizing MCW's potential. A steadier night-in, night-out role on another low-expectations team could help. But it's hard to see those conditions existing at present.
Kyle Korver, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks (104th on Player Rater) Result: potential downgrade
If Korver goes anywhere, it'll be to a contender (Cleveland?) in a diminished role.
Joe Johnson, SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets (134th on Player Rater)
See Korver, Kyle.
Markieff Morris, SF/PF, Phoenix Suns (179th on Player Rater) Result: potential cataclysmic downgrade
This is Markieff Morris I plugged back in October. Unfortunately, his recent outburst could oxidize in into a large hunk of fantasy pyrite. A 3-point-laden mirage.
Morris is being showcased for a trade. Phoenix doesn't want him. Whether it's by Thursday at noon ET or this summer, Morris is gone. And no potential trade partner -- no other NBA team -- is going to offer the amount of touches Morris is getting in Phoenix.