Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

Apr 15, 2025, 06:00 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league

STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
11.9	Spencer Strider	R	@TOR	87.2%	47%	5.3	2.1	6.3
11.5	Chris Bassitt	R	ATL	68.5%	53%	6.0	2.6	5.8
11.4	Aaron Nola	R	SF	95.2%	53%	6.0	2.9	6.4
11.1	Kris Bubic	L	@NYY	71.9%	50%	5.9	2.5	5.8
11.0	Nick Pivetta	R	CHC	74.7%	45%	5.4	2.2	6.0
10.6	Matthew Boyd	L	@SD	15.6%	55%	5.2	1.9	5.0
10.5	Bryce Miller	R	@CIN	82.6%	51%	5.5	2.5	5.6
10.1	Clarke Schmidt	R	KC	16.8%	50%	5.4	2.3	5.1
10.0	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@MIA	73.5%	59%	5.6	2.7	5.4
9.8	Bobby Miller	R	COL	1.0%	59%	5.2	2.4	5.4
9.7	Ronel Blanco	R	@STL	37.5%	56%	5.4	2.4	5.1
9.2	Osvaldo Bido	R	@CWS	2.2%	55%	4.8	2.0	4.7
8.9	Mitchell Parker	L	@PIT	17.2%	52%	5.4	2.5	4.8
8.8	Jose Quintana	L	DET	3.1%	52%	5.6	2.8	4.8
8.5	Nick Martinez	R	SEA	25.4%	49%	4.9	2.5	5.1
8.4	Jonathan Cannon	R	ATH	0.4%	45%	5.5	2.7	4.8
8.3	Jose Soriano	R	@TEX	27.8%	51%	5.2	2.6	5.0
8.3	Dean Kremer	R	CLE	1.3%	54%	5.6	3.0	4.9
8.1	Reese Olson	R	@MIL	9.2%	48%	5.1	2.5	4.9
7.9	Zack Littell	R	BOS	3.3%	46%	5.2	2.7	4.6
7.8	Gavin Williams	R	@BAL	18.0%	46%	5.0	2.5	4.9
7.8	Max Meyer	R	ARI	20.6%	41%	5.3	2.8	5.0
7.6	Robbie Ray	L	@PHI	42.3%	47%	4.7	2.5	5.0
7.3	Griffin Canning	R	@MIN	2.6%	48%	5.3	3.0	5.2
7.0	David Festa	R	NYM	1.7%	52%	4.5	2.5	5.1
6.9	Sean Newcomb	L	@TB	0.5%	54%	4.6	2.3	4.4
6.9	Steven Matz	L	HOU	0.4%	44%	5.0	2.6	4.4
6.7	German Marquez	R	@LAD	0.9%	41%	4.7	2.4	4.4
6.4	Tyler Mahle	R	LAA	10.3%	49%	4.3	2.4	4.1
5.5	Bailey Falter	L	WSH	0.5%	48%	4.8	2.8	3.7

Pitchers to stream on Friday

The New York Yankees rotation is getting some much-needed reinforcement with RHP Clarke Schmidt slated to be activated and start Wednesday's home affair against the Kansas City Royals. Schmidt missed most of spring training with shoulder soreness. He made two rehab starts for Double-A Somerset, fanning 11 with just one walk over 7 1/3 combined innings. Schmidt posted four innings with 61 pitches in his last rehab appearance, so he should be able to manage five frames in his 2025 MLB debut. The Royals tote the second lowest wOBA in the league into the Bronx.
Washington Nationals RHP Mitchell Parker opened the season with three quality starts. He's not racking up strikeouts, with only 10 in 18 1/3 frames. He's walked too many batters with eight, but he's kept the ball in the yard and in today's game, it's hard to score runs without the benefit of the long ball. Parker has a road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose offense sports the third lowest wOBA, fueled by the third worst home run rate.
There are only seven starters with a rostership over 50% and all 10 are ranked in the top 10 for Wednesday, so instead of a pitcher to avoid, here is a bonus streamer. We're streaming against the second and third least potent offense, let's continue the theme and recommend the Athletics RHP Osvaldo Bido against the Chicago White Sox and the league's poorest wOBA and fifth fewest average runs per game. Bido will be on the road for the third time in four starts, but he's fanned 14 in 15 innings without allowing a home run.

Hitters to stream on Friday

The Nationals have swiped the seventh most bases this season. On Wednesday, they play the Pirates, who have yielded the sixth most. Even with LHP Bailey Falter on the hill for the Pirates, look for the Nationals to be aggressive on the basepaths. Falter has already surrendered four stolen bases, after giving up 18 last season. Dylan Crews, Luis Garcia Jr. and Paul DeJong each have multiple swipes this season and are available in at least 60% of ESPN leagues.

Hitters to avoid on Wednesday

Suggesting avoiding San Diego Padres batters is a tough sell, but the slate is replete with offenses facing weak starting pitchers. The Padres draw Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd in Petco Park. Boyd shut down the Padres in Wrigley Field, but more importantly, the southpaw has also pitched well against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks, both on the road. Granted, Fernando Tatis Jr. is an automatic start, but reserving his teammates makes sense for this tough matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.