Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Washington Nationals OF James Wood was supposed to emerge as a terrific fantasy option this season, his first full campaign in the major leagues. This is why he was a top-50 pick in more than 1,500 preseason NFBC drafts (a roto/categories format). Based on Wood's production throughout the minor leagues and in 79 games as a rookie, many expected at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases from the imposing, 6-foot-7 player in 2025.
Don't be surprised ... if Wood becomes a top-10 fantasy OF, just like the $765-million man who used to play in Washington
To be clear, I'm talking about roto formats, and not points leagues where New York Mets OF Juan Soto dominates due to his innate ability to draw walks. In roto, however, while few reasonably could make the leap to choose Wood over Soto, Wood's stolen base upside -- whereas Soto steals few bases -- becomes an important differentiator. Plus, Wood draws quite a few walks himself. The 22-year-old still needs to improve on several things, but the potential for fantasy stardom is quite clear.
While we knew Wood was an intriguing prospect when the Nationals extracted him (along with LHP MacKenzie Gore, SS CJ Abrams and others) for generational talent Soto at the 2022 trade deadline, there were no guarantees he would develop in this direction. Wood struck out in 33.7% of his at-bats at Double-A Harrisburg, his low contact rate somewhat masked by his potential in other areas. Wood hit only .248. However, he vastly improved his discipline at Triple-A Rochester last season and quickly became a fantasy difference-maker for the Nationals, providing nine home runs and 14 steals in 336 PA
This season, over 12 games and 50 PA hitting mostly in the No. 2 spot versus right-handed pitching, Wood is showing mixed signs. The good news is that Wood has four home runs, three versus left-handed pitching. Last season, Wood slugged only .339 off lefties, including only one of his nine home runs.
This season, he is slugging 1.000 in 20 PA against lefties -- and we know he can hit right-handers, posting an .858 OPS last season. Overall, Wood boasts a 14% walk rate and .325 isolated power. These are great signs. However, few can thrive with a 73.1% ground ball rate (second in MLB) and a 34% strikeout rate is a bummer, too. Still, a 30-HR, 25-SB option is possible. It isn't Soto-level, but it is noteworthy.
It may seem silly to compare Soto, with a nearly 37 bWAR through seven seasons and well on his way to the Hall of Fame, with a younger player who has yet to even qualify for the batting title and went outside the top 100 picks in ESPN points formats, but we're talking about roto/category fantasy leagues here. Wood looks capable of great things if he can make more contact, hit more fly balls and steal bases.
It remains surprising that Wood remains available in 25% of ESPN standard leagues. He is a potential building block in roto, and still underrated in points formats. No, he isn't the four-category dynamo that Soto is, but few players are. Wood should provide excellent value, and fantasy managers may find time is running out to capitalize.
Don't be surprised ... if Athletics SS Jacob Wilson is the AL's version of San Diego Padres 1B/2B Luis Arraez
Here is another relative comparison between a veteran provider and an unestablished youngster. We all know how Arraez helps fantasy managers, as he has earned three consecutive batting titles and his career contact rate is 92.7% -- a ridiculous figure reminiscent of soft-hitting, bunt-first, middle infielders from several generations ago. Arraez is not as valuable in roto leagues, where the batting average stands for his main contribution. He's never hit more than 10 home runs, stolen 10 bases or scored 90 runs in a season. Arraez finished 2024 as the No. 29 ESPN points-league hitter, but he was the No. 49 hitter on the Player Rater (roto).
Wilson, 23, is in his first full season and he is showing Arraez-like tendencies, for sure. Entering Thursday, Wilson was hitting .396 with a 95.8% contact rate. He has yet to draw a walk and he has struck out only twice (both in the same game) over his 13 games and 48 PA.
Wilson, who hits right-handed, has whacked a pair of home runs -- one in his home Sacramento bandbox, and the other in Denver's mile-high bandbox. It is premature to expect this power pace to continue, but can you imagine if some semblance of it does? Wilson is among the most-added hitters in ESPN points leagues -- and he should be, for his profile works well in this format. Avoiding strikeouts can overcome a lack of power, as Arraez has proven. We need to see more of this, and some adjustments, too, as a 56.5% ground ball rate without blazing speed (or, really, even with it) is a challenge to overcome. Arraez has never finished a season with a 50% ground ball rate, though he rarely hits baseballs hard. As with Wood, Wilson has some adjustments to make, but not many. A significant points-league option remains readily available.
Don't be surprised ... if Texas Rangers 2B Marcus Semien leads the most-dropped list soon
I don't like overreacting to rough starts, especially when it comes to proven, veteran performers. Last week, I communicated some mild concern about the early historic strikeout start for Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers, and then -- of course -- he roundly destroyed St. Louis Cardinals right-handed pitching over one weekend and that hot take invited nothing but ridicule. Let's be patient and see what we have in a few months before pronouncing Devers as either the same top-20 hitter he has always been or someone who struggles to hit .250. We have time.
Semien, however, is six years older than Devers, and he's not coming off another of his excellent seasons. Semien hit just .237 with a .699 OPS last season, adding only 23 home runs and single-digit stolen bases. We crave durability, but perhaps never missing a game has become a problem at age 34. The Rangers claimed they wanted to give Semien more time off this season, and perhaps they will. Through 13 games and 53 PA, however, Semien is hitting a sad .122 with an inflated ground ball rate. In this case, it appears to be the right time to panic.
It is hard not to notice how many Rangers hitters are among the leaders (trailers?) in BABIP. The team mark is .230, worst in the sport. Semien needs to make more contact, but he isn't going to finish 2025 hitting .122, either. Perhaps Rangers manager Bruce Bochy would never dream of removing him from the leadoff spot, but Semien produced an OBP lower than .310 in two of the past three seasons. Then again, perhaps Bochy doesn't have many options. No AL team has a lower OBP than the Rangers at .269.
Perhaps it isn't even worth looking at BABIP after two weeks, so let's not panic that 1B/3B Jake Burger, DH Joc Pederson, Semien and OF Adolis Garcia have all been quite unlucky so far, with BABIPs on the wrong side of .175. Globe Life Field is a renowned pitcher's park, but the team has also played in Cincinnati and Chicago (NL) so far. The Rangers are struggling to score runs. Getting the old Semien back would help, but it is fair to wonder if that is asking for too much.