Texas Rangers RHP Chris Martin and LHP Robert Garcia sure seemed like the leading contenders to earn saves for veteran manager Bruce Bochy this season -- and Bochy sure did not dissuade anyone from thinking that was the angle. Who else in the Texas bullpen was viable?
Well, everyone overlooked RHP Luke Jackson -- everyone, that is, except for Bochy. He trusted the journeyman in the ninth inning on Opening Day and then, even after he gave up three runs, went back to him for a save chance the next night. Jackson, of all people, enters Tuesday tied for the lead with five saves.
Fantasy managers did not see this coming, and those in ESPN standard leagues have been slow to believe this will continue, as Martin remains rostered in more leagues than Jackson. To be fair, Martin is pitching well, and he boasts a few more ESPN fantasy points, but the saves matter. Jackson lost that first game when Boston Red Sox OF Wilyer Abreu slugged a three-run homer, but he hasn't permitted any runs in the five games since -- all of which ended with a converted save. While Martin investors whine, the fact is that Jackson saved 18 wins for the 2019 Atlanta Braves and he entered this season with more career saves than Martin.
It's anyone's guess (and yeah, we won't even try to pretend it is anything but a guess) how many saves Jackson and Martin each end up with, but Bochy saw something back in March when Jackson tossed six great spring innings, permitting nary a run with one walk and nine strikeouts and Martin flashed similar dominance over his six innings. Neither right-hander is young (Martin is 38, Jackson 33), nor flirts with a 100 mph fastball (each in the 94 mph range). Frankly, the left-handed Garcia, acquired in the offseason trade from the Washington Nationals for 1B Nathaniel Lowe, boasts the signature stuff in the bullpen. He has four holds in five innings.
Opportunity is key and, today, Jackson is the closer for the Rangers. Take the under on 25 more saves because Jackson, who struggled to a 5.09 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP for last season's Braves and Giants, is no sure thing. However, waiting around for Bochy to change his mind and give Martin the ninth inning is pointless. There will be some messy outings and perhaps an IL stint or more (for both right-handers, really), if history is any guide.
Then again, perhaps Jackson is the Kyle Finnegan of the American League -- a seemingly ordinary relief pitcher entrusted with save opportunities, even if he is far from perfect. Finnegan sits right behind Jackson among current save leaders while some rather big names remain tied with both you and me with nary a save (Emmanuel Clase, Raisel Iglesias, Felix Bautista, Jhoan Duran). That's how this saves business works sometimes!
Stock rising
Dennis Santana, Pittsburgh Pirates: This one is not so surprising, as incumbent RHP David Bednar pitched terribly for much of last season, then permitted a run in each of the three games he appeared in to open the Pirates' season in Miami. Bednar lost two of the three games, failing to record an out in two of them, and let's just say the Marlins are not a high-powered offense. In fact, they're barely an offense at all. Bednar earned himself a demotion to Triple-A Indianapolis and we shouldn't expect him back closing for the Pirates anytime soon.
Santana pitched well enough for Pittsburgh last season, which was enough to make him a leading candidate for saves. He hasn't been perfect himself, but he earned the high-leverage eighth inning against Aaron Judge and pals on Sunday, and LHP Ryan Borucki blew the save. Expect Santana to get the next save chances -- and this one may stick for a while.
Tommy Kahnle, Detroit Tigers: This situation is quite like the Rangers, as Tigers manager A.J. Hinch barely gave away his secrets in spring training, leading speculators to invest in every Tiger not named Mike Henneman. Among them were LHPs Tyler Holton and Brant Hurter and RHPs Beau Brieske, Jason Foley and Kahnle. Foley never made the Tigers, as he is pitching for Triple-A Toledo. Brieske blew his first save chance, as the Dodgers scored five runs off him. Hurter is hurting with a 6.23 ERA. Holton is fine, but Kahnle (35 and having never earned more than two saves in any of his first 10 MLB seasons) appears to be the closer.
He has pitched four times and the only person to reach base against him did so because Kahnle plunked him. No hits, no walks, no drama. Kahnle pitched well the past few seasons for the New York Yankees, but he last reached 45 MLB innings back in 2019, so there is reason for skepticism. Somehow, the 6-4 Tigers have only two holds as a team. Holton is really good and should see save chances, too.
Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox: Chapman is one of the early-season relief stars in roto leagues, as he is the only pitcher to earn multiple wins and saves. None of Chapman's four outings have been clean, with a walk in three of them, but that's always been Chapman. He misses both bats and the strike zone more than just about everyone, so he is going to permit runs. Still, he always finds his way into saves.
Chapman last earned more than 14 saves during the 2021 season, but that may change this year. RHP Liam Hendriks is on the IL due to elbow inflammation. At this point, we should expect RHP Justin Slaten, in his second season, to save more games than Hendriks. Perhaps Slaten and Chapman share the saves depending on matchups, making Slaten quite underrated. Even so, Chapman is still worth rostering.
Stock falling
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians: The top closer off many draft boards will get his saves. Perhaps it won't be 40 of them for the fourth consecutive season, but it still should be enough to please fantasy managers. We are not particularly worried about pending opportunities or his performance, but still, he's already permitted three earned runs -- just two shy of last year's entire total.
With a four-run lead on Friday night against the Los Angeles Angels, Clase permitted a long Logan O'Hoppe home run. He has struck out only two of 20 hitters and he was already below average in that important category the past two seasons, one of which was a great season (0.61 ERA, only three blown saves) and the other not so much (3.22 ERA, 12 blown saves). Yeah, of course Clase will end up somewhere in the middle of those numbers this season, but I'd still trade him for a lesser closer and other stuff if I could.
Ryan Pressly, Chicago Cubs: Who couldn't have seen this coming? Pressly, 36, was simply gifted the closing job here after the January trade from the Houston Astros, who couldn't wait to dump his contract after an ordinary 2024 campaign. Pressly has had saves in only half of his six appearances, but he has also permitted runs in three outings, too. His fastball velocity is down and he isn't fooling anyone or finding the strike zone with his patented curveball. Overall, a 4.2% swinging-strike rate is a telltale sign things are not going well. I wanted no part of Pressly in drafts and predicted RHP Porter Hodge would supplant him for saves. Now I wonder if it happens in April.
Jordan Romano, Philadelphia Phillies: I had the chance to invest in Romano so many times this preseason and consistently faded him, because it seemed a bit silly to presume the former Toronto Blue Jays RHP would simply return to his pre-2024 ways and pile on the saves. For one, Romano barely pitched last season, dealing with elbow issues. The Blue Jays, needing bullpen pieces, simply let him go. It's like they knew something.
Second, Rob Thomson's Phillies have shared saves over the past couple of seasons. The last Phillies reliever to save 30 games was Jeanmar Gomez in 2016. Thomson erred on Sunday, trusting Romano in the seventh inning against the Dodgers with a two-run lead against Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. With diminished velocity and cranky command, that lead didn't last long. Romano's average fastball, in five messy appearances, is at 94.7 mph, down from 96.5 mph in his brief work last season.
LHP Jose Alvarado is Philly's closer. I'll take the under on 30 saves (again) for any Phillies pitcher, and it seems unlikely Romano even gets to 10 saves. Move on. The Phillies may have to do as well.
Other quick thoughts
Don't bother rostering any Chicago White Sox relief pitchers. We thought RHP Mike Clevinger would get chances and perhaps even pitch well, but he's being utilized earlier in games. There will not be much to save here.
RHPs Viktor Vodnik and enticing rookie Seth Halvorsen have split the Colorado Rockies saves, and of course we want to see what Halvorsen could do with the opportunity for more, but this is a terrible team in arguably the toughest division. If guessing, go with Halvorsen.
Cincinnati Reds RHP Alexis Diaz (hamstring) is healthy and pitching at Triple-A Louisville, and he likely returns to the Reds this weekend, whether he can command his pitches or not. Diaz may always be a walker, but he is still better than RHPs Emilio Pagan and Tony Santillan. Perhaps Diaz starts earning Reds saves soon, but it will be a messy ride for six months, just like last season.