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Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
The Athletics LHP Jeffrey Springs has allowed a lot of traffic with a 1.46 WHIP over his first three outings, spanning 15 innings, but he's posted a pair of quality starts with 16 strikeouts. On Tuesday, Springs should be able to address the abundance of base runners with a road date against the Chicago White Sox. Springs will face a lineup sporting the second-lowest OBP in the majors.
Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo isn't piling up strikeouts yet with only eight in 18 2/3 innings, but that should change with a home date against the Seattle Mariners. Lodolo is compensating for a paucity of punchouts by issuing just one free pass and surrendering only one home run. The Mariners are making more contact lately but for the season they sport the 12th-highest strikeout rate in MLB.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
The Los Angeles Angels signed LHP Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million contract to anchor their rotation. It's early but Kikuchi has been unable to carry over the second-half success he enjoyed with the Houston Astros after being acquired at the deadline. Perhaps Kikuchi is pressing, which could explain his having issued eight walks and four homers over 18 frames. He deserves the benefit of the doubt, but before Kikuchi can be trusted, he needs to exhibit better command and control. It's best to look elsewhere with Kikuchi on the road against the Texas Rangers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.38 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.80 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.29 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.89 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Braves hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.80 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
So far, the Baltimore Orioles have been unable to take advantage of the renovations to Camden Yards with the left-field fences being brought in and lowered. Their wOBA facing southpaws is the eighth-lowest in the league. It shouldn't be long before they flip the script, perhaps as soon as Tuesday with Cleveland Guardians LHP Logan Allen on the hill. Right-handers Tyler O'Neill and Ryan Mountcastle are the chief targets for this home affair.
Hitters to avoid on Tuesday
The Angels are exhibiting surprising power, led by C Logan O'Hoppe and 2B Kyren Paris. O'Hoppe is off to a blazing start with a 1.104 OPS, but he has fanned at a 36.7% clip while accepting walks at a scant 2.0% pace. His 53.3% HardHit% is impressive, but it doesn't support an unsustainable .440 BABIP. Paris' plate skills are good with a 21.7% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate, but his .391 BABIP and .474 ISO are major regression candidates. The temptation is to ride streaks, but history shows they are non-predictive and can cease at any time.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Framing: B | Temperature: F | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .334 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: A+ | Home
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
San Francisco Giants LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.43 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% - 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the games 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Manzardo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 21.2% seasonal rate to 44.4% over the past week.
Michael Massey | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all MLB stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the eighth-lowest average fence height.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Mitch Keller | OVER 2.5 ER (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.71 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15.4 mph in this game, the best of the day for hitters.
Jeffrey Springs | UNDER 5.5 K (-100)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Springs has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 9.94 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.07 - a 0.87 K/9 deviation.
Shota Imanaga | OVER 2.5 ER (+120)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Imanaga's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (90.5 mph) below where it was last year (91.6 mph).
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Red Sox @ Rays | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $2.06 EV
Giants @ Phillies | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $1.70 EV