There used to be so many sure things when it came to relief pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, in 2021, even when looking at the very top of the rankings among closers, there are so many questions. Myriad questions! So, as we prepare for the second half of the season to get underway this evening, it seems only fitting to ask at least some of those questions regarding the state of relief pitching. With that in mind, and with apologies to Camila Cabello, "I have questions!"
Tell me who you think you are
Will David Bednar soon be closing games?
In a fantasy world of saves speculation, this Pittsburgh Pirates strikeout right-hander is the most obvious pickup in advance of the trade deadline, just in case closer Richard Rodriguez ends up elsewhere. Really, R-Rod should end up elsewhere. Bednar's metrics are so appealing and, even on a last-place team, this may be a future top-10 closer.
What about Anthony Bender?
It's the same deal, really. This 26-year-old Miami Marlins rookie boasts the best numbers in his bullpen, and the Marlins should not be keeping Yimi Garcia, Dylan Floro or Richard Bleier around. Sure, Bednar has permitted runs in each of his last three outings -- including the first two home runs against him -- but how he pitches over the next week may define his fantasy value for months.
Something must be wrong with Aroldis Chapman, right?
The All-Star left-hander ended the first half having allowed nine earned runs over his last four appearances, covering 2 1/3 innings and 22 hitters. He walked nine of them. Brutal. Chapman was unavailable for the All-Star game but the Yankees maintain he is healthy and that his fastball velocity is fine. Something is amiss and I would not trade for him in fantasy as if he were a safe top-five closer. He may be, but there is risk. Right-hander Chad Green figuratively imploded this past weekend, but he remains a wise addition in fantasy, just in case.
Will Cleveland's timeshare continue?
Emmanuel Clase boasts an impressive 71.2% ground-ball rate. That's especially special considering it comes in concert with more than a strikeout per inning. Chicago White Sox LHP Aaron Bummer is the only one doing better in both those categories, but he does not get saves. Clase does and, while James Karinchak is more dominant and having the better season, I see no reason why manager Terry Francona alters this effective timeshare. As a result, both of these fellows likely finish short of 20 saves.
Why would you try and play me for a fool?
Is Josh Hader still safe and awesome?
Well, look at those numbers! He is awesome! Sure, the imposing Milwaukee Brewers left-hander had a few statistical hiccups this past weekend, as he lost two games to the Cincinnati Reds. Still, the velocity is there, so do not worry. That said, now is the perfect time to trade any of your top closers (like Hader) in exchange for a lesser one plus something else of need, like a starter or a middle infielder. As for Hader, there is no sign that the resurgent (since April, at least) setup man Devin Williams will encroach on his saves.
What exactly are the Reds doing?
It's a bit hard to believe that ordinary right-hander Heath Hembree, with eight HR allowed and a 4.80 ERA, currently leads all of baseball with five July saves. Hembree, 32, saved just two games over his first eight MLB seasons. Last year, he allowed nine home runs and 19 earned runs in 19 innings. Now, with the duo of Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone injured, he gets saves. Left-hander Amir Garrett is better, of course -- and his 6.51 ERA is misleading as he last permitted a run four weeks and 12 appearances ago. Good for Hembree, but still, go get Garrett first. Plus, both Sims and Antone will be back in play for saves when they return.
Can Liam Hendriks succeed despite the home runs?
Perhaps it's only me that has noticed, but serving up seven home runs in a half-season when you're supposed to be in the discussion as the top closer in the sport? That's dangerous and not what we signed up for when he drafted Hendriks. Everything else looks grand, notably the 63 strikeouts versus just four walks. Still, the White Sox did not think they were signing the Australian version of Raisel Iglesias (9 HR). Hendriks is walking a much finer line than expected.
Can we rely on any Kansas City Royals options?
Scott Barlow should be the closer, and he was having a tremendous season until the weekend before the All-Star break. He was getting saves, but then he struggled. Greg Holland was no better that same weekend, and he has now allowed runs in three consecutive games. He allows home runs. He allows walks. He also has 217 career saves. It should be Barlow, Josh Staumont, or Kyle Zimmer getting saves here -- anyone remotely young. Unfortunately, I bet it will be the 35-year-old Holland, no matter how poorly he pitches, and that means he will only torture fantasy investors.
Should I apologize to Craig Kimbrel?
LOL! I doubt he cares that so many of us wrote him off after last season. There was ample evidence, after all. The Chicago Cubs seem to desire more to be sellers this month and Kimbrel is an obvious name to move. The good thing about rostering him is that we can likely count on him earning saves wherever he lands. Kudos on the impressive comeback season! Meanwhile, it's Ryan Tepera and Dan Winkler (should they remain Cubbies into August) who would figure to pick up save chances.
Are we still talking about Julian Merryweather?
Well, those 4 1/3 innings and pair of saves in early April were so special! It has been three full months since we saw this Toronto Blue Jays right-hander pitch, as he sits out with an oblique strain. It may be a while longer until he returns. He remains rostered in 5.8% of leagues, which is more than Bender! Jordan Romano looks fine as Toronto's closer, and perhaps fantasy managers are slow to invest because they expect Merryweather to return. Even if he does, will saves come his way? I say to get Romano.
Why weren't you who you swore that you would be?
Will we be dropping Richard Rodriguez soon?
The Pirates are going nowhere and when you are going nowhere, you can do so without a closer. Be careful when trading for Rodriguez before he ends up elsewhere because, unlike Kimbrel and his 368 career saves, Rodriguez has a mere 17. For most contenders (Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, etc.) he likely would not close, and his strikeout rate is well below average.
Could the Rogers brothers be teammates?
Pretty please? What fun, right? Minnesota Twins LHP Taylor Rogers is a prime trade candidate because his team is shockingly terrible, while his twin Tyler Rogers submarines effectively in the San Francisco Giants bullpen and gets saves. I doubt Taylor Rogers would get saves for the Giants, since left-hander Jake McGee is thriving again. Regardless, Taylor Rogers deftly combines strikeout and ground-ball rate. Hader is the lone lefty with a better WAR among relievers. I need to see these 30-year-old twins reunited in the same bullpen. C'mon, Giants, karma matters. As for the Twins, I am sure Hansel Robles is not expensive to acquire, which is why Tyler Duffey may soon fall into saves.
Is Paul Sewald bound for the Hall of Fame?
Well, perhaps that's a bit optimistic, but this journeyman has two of the Seattle Mariners' three saves in July, and while Kendall Graveman is far more rostered in ESPN leagues, Sewald has better numbers, especially in strikeout rate. Sewald has a top-10 WAR among relievers this month and leads the Seattle bullpen in this category for the season. He is a readily available bargain.
Do the Arizona Diamondbacks matter?
Of course they matter. as they are a major league team. As for whether or not their closer matters? Well, yeah, I think Joakim Soria does in fantasy, perhaps more than any relievers do on the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers and perhaps the Royals. Is any team trading for Soria? I think he could stay in Arizona and save another 10 games, but if he is moved, feel free to add Noe Ramirez. He's the next in line.
Do any Philadelphia Phillies relievers matter?
Such a philosophical question! I think the team will avoid breaking the record for most blown saves in a season now that left-handed long reliever Ranger Suarez, he of so little career distinction, has so deftly handled closing duties for like a week. The rest of the bullpen, of course, is atrocious. Who is the setup man and is that role to be dubbed "The Pre-a-Ranger" for save chances? Get it? Whatever.
Suarez seems to be the only trusted reliever in this bullpen, so much so that he earned a rare seven-out save on Sunday at Fenway Park. That's a good way to earn saves -- get into a bullpen where nobody else is pitching well and the manager has written everyone else off. Suarez ranks fifth among qualified relievers in ground-ball rate. He is the left-handed Tyler Rogers and also missing enough bats to matter. Of course, the Phillies could decide to trade for Kimbrel or Rodriguez and mess this all up again. If so, the questions will continue.