Fantasy baseball managers love their rankings because much of the time they simply want to know whether we would choose )and invariably, whether they should choose) one name or the other. It's a rather simple game, really. This fellow or that fellow, and in the case of Vanderbilt right-handers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, very different pitchers who went to very different big-league organizations in the first round of Sunday's amateur draft, there is no obvious answer.
Leiter went No. 2 overall to the Texas Rangers and Rocker, likely due to financial reasons more than anything else, stunningly slipped to the No. 10 choice of the fortunate New York Mets. Each organization, along with long-suffering fans, should love these selections. Leiter, the son of former big leaguer Al Leiter, is a mature, strikeout machine and reminds me, in size and form, of another Vanderbilt hurler -- Cincinnati Reds right-hander Sonny Gray. There's nothing wrong with that! Leiter pairs an electric fastball with a solid curveball and changeup.
Rocker, however, is still the one I would choose for fantasy purposes in both the near- and long-term. His is a more conventional, larger starting pitcher build, and as with Leiter, the stuff is clearly there. The imposing Rocker, standing 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds and the son of former NFL player Tracy Rocker, simply overpowered college hitters with a mid-90s fastball and killer slider. Both pitches should play in the majors. He was a bit inconsistent this recent college season, but as he develops his changeup, watch out!
Why Rocker gets the nod
For fantasy managers looking for more immediate gratification, Rocker is the pick. In fact, the eager first-place Mets could easily make the case for him in their current rotation, as it lacks reasonable depth after Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman. Rocker is ready, too, and with the Mets desperate for rotation help, he really could debut in the majors this season and play a meaningful role. Ultimately, I see him as a steady, durable, middle-of-the rotation rock, if you will. Again, there is nothing wrong with that!
Perhaps Leiter, going to a rebuilding organization in no hurry to contend, takes a bit longer, and I would agree with scouts that he offers higher upside, perhaps on a per-innings basis. I certainly do not think a fantasy manager can go wrong here. Gray is not quite six-feet tall, and he last reached 200 innings back in the 2015 season with the Oakland Athletics. Leiter is perhaps an inch or two taller, but neither has the typical workhorse build. Frankly, it is all speculative. Both Rocker and Leiter get to play in pitcher-friendly parks, and the opportunity for excellence is there. I lean a bit towards Rocker.
Top of the list
Meanwhile, Louisville catcher Henry Davis went first overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates. My stance on catchers for dynasty/keeper leagues in fantasy is to act with an abundance of caution, because it is a defense-first role, and one that often takes a toll on both the bat and overall durability. Perhaps the Baltimore Orioles really have a generational talent in Adley Rutschman, the first overall pick in 2019, but it hardly means that Davis offers the same upside or security. Fantasy managers should not aim to "corner the market" on scarce positions, if you will, by investing in the top catcher in baseball (or tight end in football or goaltender in hockey) and believe it is a major advantage in their leagues.
For those dynasty managers choosing players selected on Sunday night, my first and overriding take is to focus on college players over high-school options first. They are older, generally more mature, and closer to the major leagues. Look, a lot can happen to a teenager as they develop both physically and emotionally. I favor polished, slugging hitters over batting-average types, and tend to ignore current positions on the field. Shortstops move to other positions all the time. Just like big-league clubs should draft the best available prospects over immediate need, so should fantasy managers.
Young pitchers come with far more risk than hitters do, and I tend to focus on power right-handers such as Leiter and Rocker, but also Los Angeles Angels selection Sam Bachman (No. 9 overall), San Francisco Giants pick Will Bednar (14th, and the brother of Pittsburgh Pirates RHP David Bednar) and Cleveland's choice Gavin Williams (23rd). These fellows miss bats! I watched intently as Bednar and Williams pitched with excellence in important postseason games against Vanderbilt back in June, and could easily see them both move quickly through the minors.
The Future is now?
Sunday's Futures Game was a bit of a slogging affair due to myriad mid-inning pitching changes, but several players shined through. Here's a brief summary of what stood out to me:
Chicago Cubs outfield prospect Brennan Davis starred with a pair of home runs and took home MVP honors, reminding us of his potential even though he has hit a mere four home runs over 31 games and 126 PA at Double-A Tennessee. Hey, hitting in Denver's Coors Field is fun! Davis, 21, could debut in the majors next season, when the Cubs will look much different. Davis may be a future star or just someone who offers 25 home runs per season with little else. We do not know, and Sunday does not alter his value much.
I wanted to see a bunch of other hitters on the American League side, starting with shortstops Bobby Witt Jr. (Kansas City Royals) and Austin Martin (Toronto Blue Jays). Witt can clearly catch up to fastballs and it is obvious why colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft offers so much praise for him for dynasty formats. Expect Witt to move to Triple-A soon. Martin singled and walked in two plate appearances. Not that it matters much in fantasy, but he does not look like a shortstop. Cockcroft projects Martin for the outfield. We all project he will hit.
The Seattle Mariners dynamic outfield duo of Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez were rather quiet, with the latter striking out in three of his four plate appearances, drawing a walk in the other. New York Yankees teenager Jasson Dominguez whiffed in two of his three at-bats, but look at that swing! I probably will avoid Chicago White Sox OF Yoelkis Cespedes (yes, brother of Yoenis) in fantasy, for his plate discipline has been suspect in the minors, and his at-bats Sunday followed that path.
In general, my take on Futures Game prospects is to watch the pitchers, even though it can be misleading evaluating them because they throw in such short bursts. Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane Baz tossed a dominant inning, as he featured his devastating fastball/changeup combination, and I maintain a promotion to the majors may occur any day, though with his immediate role with the team undefined. Baz is certainly ready.
I wanted to see Washington Nationals RHP Cade Cavalli, but he continues to struggle with control. His lone inning featured a pair of strikeouts (Jeter Downs and Dominguez) with a pair of walks (Spencer Torkelson and Martin). Miami Marlins future star Max Meyer faced a mere two hitters and then he was done.
Lefties Matthew Liberatore (St. Louis Cardinals) and Reid Detmers (Angels) stood out to me as well. Liberatore's numbers at Triple-A Memphis took a turn recently with a rough outing in which he permitted 14 hits over 4 2/3 innings. Ignore it. He is polished and ready to start for the Cardinals this summer -- a relatively safe option with strikeout potential. Detmers fanned both hitters he faced on Sunday, throwing harder than advertised on his 2020 draft day. Again, with his 91 strikeouts in just 50 Double-A innings, the impatient (well, they should be) Angels may promote him soon.