Nobody thinks that New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso is close to being the best fantasy baseball option in the sport. Then again, since he made his big-league debut in 2019, nobody has hit more regular-season home runs than his 86. Alonso's impressive power was on display Monday night in Denver when he won another Home Run Derby -- and did so with what looked like relative ease because his swing seems built for the challenge of hitting baseballs very far, almost impervious to slumps.
Still, good luck convincing fantasy baseball managers that Alonso (and the others who competed on Monday night) are free from any so-called Home Run Derby jinx. A small handful of participants over the past 20 years have slumped after the break and even blamed the Derby for affecting their swing, but those have actually been quite rare. A jinx is also a bit illogical. My contention is that we tend to focus on contestants who struggle after the Derby and blame the competition as if a silly curse actually exists, and we ignore myriad other factors. Many sluggers do, in fact, continue their power assaults. Some do not. Some would not have anyway. We call it regression to some reasonable mean.
Alonso sits on 17 home runs through 77 games, far from both his monster rookie pace of 2019 and the current leaderboard, but it's hardly a disappointing total. No, Alonso may never offer up a high batting average, for there are nearly 200 players boasting a better batting average (minimum 500 PA) since he joined the league. He has stolen precisely one base per season. Half of his career RBI have resulted from his own home runs -- a story somewhat about his lack of other base hits, but perhaps more about his teammates' lack of production. Still, only three players have produced more RBI since his debut.
Alonso is, simply put, a "home run fellow." Listening to his interviews on Monday night, he would probably agree with that assessment -- and with great pride. He knows what he is good at and, while he is hardly Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, he is special in his own right. Alonso hits home runs. There are 92 other hitters alone ranking better on the ESPN Player Rater and 62 hitters have scored more total fantasy points. Alonso may or may not be a top-50 fantasy option, but if you want home runs (and RBI), well, you definitely can do worse.
I greatly enjoyed Monday's Derby and I think it is time for a little appreciation for Alonso. Perhaps most importantly, I have no concerns about his participation in this event hurting his performance over the next few months.
Second-half predictions for our Derby darlings
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets: There's a bit of weirdness in Alonso's first-half numbers that I suspect will fix itself. Only three home runs at Citi Field? It is hardly Coors Field but still, that must improve. He pulled everything to left field on Monday, but is actually not doing as much of that in games that count. I wonder if he adjusts that a bit. Still, no worries here. This is a durable fellow who knows what he is, and that is ... yep, a home run hitter. Prediction: 25 more home runs. He ends up at 42, second in the NL to Fernando Tatis Jr., and with 105 RBI. For those in dynasty formats, I may just expect .250 with 40 blasts per season until 2030. It does not make him a top-20 option, but it sure is valuable.
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles: How could one not root for Mancini after he missed the 2020 season fighting colon cancer? Statistically, Mancini offers a similar profile to Alonso for fantasy, though with far fewer fly balls, a better batting average and, surprisingly, more runs scored. Yes, the Orioles are outscoring the Mets. Their lineup is somehow deeper. Anyway, no surprises here on Mancini. His is a high ground-ball rate, which is bad for power, but I will not presume he wears down this season, either. Be optimistic. Prediction: Remember, you cannot just double a player's HR total and call it a day. More than half the season is already complete. Mancini has 16 home runs. I say he finishes with 30 and knocks in 98 runs. What an awesome, inspirational comeback!
Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals: Soto told reporters on Monday afternoon that while some Derby participants worry about the competition altering their swings for the second half, he was actually hoping it would alter his swing in a positive way. Soto knows he hits too many ground balls. He hits everything hard -- and to all fields -- but needs more lift. He certainly lifted the ball on Monday. Even before Monday, I expected a monster second half. How can arguably the best hitter in the game have just four home runs off right-handed pitching this season? Prediction: I think Soto is more likely to hit something like .330 the rest of the way than supply more than 20 home runs. So, let's go with that! Soto hits .330 from now on with 17 home runs. Invest if you still can.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels: I refuse to predict injury or any malady with Ohtani and acknowledge he may be a superhero. However, I do not see a 50-HR season, either. Players wear down over six months, and this fellow also pitches once or twice per week. Regression is the obvious expectation, even had Ohtani taken Monday off to sit on his sofa. He has 18 home runs since the start of June. That is a wild pace. Prediction: For the top sluggers, 7-8 HR per month is reasonable and, by the way, outstanding. I will give Ohtani 16 more home runs, and he finishes at a league-leading 49, along with 20 stolen bases. Wow! Even removing the pitching stats, this is a clear first-round pick in 2022 drafts!
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals: Timing is everything and nobody was beating Alonso, but Perez put on quite a show as well. What a nice, late-career hitting renaissance for this fellow. Prediction: I shudder at the fact he has only 11 walks and a whopping 134 strikeouts since the start of 2020, but to each their own. He has hit only one fewer home run than Alonso since then -- and Perez has to catch 140 times a season. If anyone is going to wear down, it's a catcher. Perez, over a lengthy career, has slugged 43 points higher in first halves. He is currently at 21 home runs and I'll give him 12 more, which is still special at his position.
Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics: Olson bashed 36 home runs in 2019, and he has made huge strides in plate approach, avoiding deeper counts, and drastically reducing his K-rate. Look at his excellent work against left-handed pitching, too! I see no red flags here, including the ballpark he calls home. Prediction: Olson has hit into some rough luck over the past three weeks, and may hit closer to his career mark of around .250 the rest of the way, but the power is real. I'll give him 18 more home runs, finishing with 41.
Joey Gallo, OF, Texas Rangers: Oh, so many walks and strikeouts! Nobody has more of the former stat this season, and only Javier Baez and Matt Chapman boast more of the latter. Then again, Gallo is walking more than ever and whiffing at a career-low rate. These are not Olson-type strides, but they are positives. Gallo hit .253 in 2019 and is at .239 today, so perhaps we can dispense with the days when he struggled to hit .200. Prediction: About as predictable a slugger there is, Gallo reaches 40 home runs for the third time, ending at 42. That means 18 more blasts.
Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies: We finish with the hometown hero, though Story may be calling another city home by the end of the month. His is the biggest name surrounding the trade deadline for fantasy, more important than any saves that may be on the move. Story is a career .612 slugger at Coors Field and just .436 for road games. Whether he ends up at Yankee Stadium or anyplace else, his fantasy value will take a hit if he's traded. Prediction: Story currently sits at 11 home runs and, as with Soto, his oddly high ground-ball rate plays a rather imposing role. It is a good thing that Story boasts a career slugging percentage 58 points better post-All Star break, but not knowing where he will play is problematic. Perhaps he stays put. Anyway, let us boost him some with 14 more home runs, finishing up at 25.