Brace yourself for a startling fact: As of Thursday morning, 17 pitchers find themselves on pace to throw at least 200 innings.
That's not to say that all of us in the fantasy baseball business were completely off-base in prognosticating that pitching workloads would be significantly capped in 2021. Sure, baseball's "aces" are working every bit as hard as they have at any point in the past half-decade, but it's important to note that, of those 17, 10 are pitchers whose 30th birthdays are in the rearview, pitchers expected to absorb bigger annual workloads.
As teams fill in the rotational gaps between those workhorses, they're taking a markedly more conservative approach to pitching workloads. Some key stats: There have been 549 starts this season of fewer than 80 pitches, a pace of 1,460 for the season, which would shatter the single-season low by nearly 300 (1,178 in 2019). Additionally, only 639 times has any starter worked on four or fewer days' rest, a pace of 1,699 that would be more than 450 fewer than we saw in the last full major league season in 2019.
Citing those numbers today is especially significant: At the conclusion of play on Tuesday, we had seen as many games in the books as there were in all of 2020, and both of those stats were markedly down through that date compared to in all of 2020, a season that had a delayed and truncated preseason. Yes, six-man rotations, spot starters and bullpen days, especially during lengthier stretches of teams' schedules without a day off, have become commonplace in 2021.
These decisions are things we deal with in ESPN's standard format, which affords daily transactions, but the workload debate has a profound impact upon fantasy managers' season-long planning, not to mention lineup decisions in leagues that allow lineup changes only on a weekly basis. Knowing which pitchers are ahead of pace can help you avoid missing a key arm at a later, more critical stage of season, and knowing which teams have schedules that will coax managerial decisions giving their incumbent starters additional rest can help you make those key lineup decisions.
I've taken a look at both: The pitchers who are trending ahead of pace, as well as the teams that have the most challenging remaining schedules. They're broken down below into two sections, the "danger zone," which are pitchers that will almost assuredly have their routines altered in the coming weeks, and the "headaches," who are pitchers you might expect to have the occasional start skipped but should be generally productive. The most fantasy-relevant options include my projection for their remaining innings.
In the danger zone
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (SP17 roto, SP16 points, so far): Whether due to prolonged injury absences of Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and David Price, or a new managerial strategy, the Dodgers, once hailed for their rotation depth, have leaned extremely heavily upon their top four starters thus far. Each of Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler and Urias is on pace for at least 192 innings, but it's Urias who raises the biggest flag. Among active major leaguers, he's on pace to exceed his previous professional high for innings (122, 2015) by the widest margin (70). Urias has already made five starts on four days' rest, his total of those one shy of the Dodgers' entire team total (counting only traditional, non-opener starters) from 2020 (6), an odd development considering his 24 years of age and shoulder surgery that limited him to a combined 70 1/3 innings in 2017-18 combined. The Dodgers lack the kind of extended schedule stretch without a day off, pressing them into inserting a sixth starter, but they do have candidates to do it with Gonsolin and Price back. They also have five stretches of 10 games without a day off, which might be times they'll consider tossing in a spot starter, or worse for Urias' managers, skip him for an entire turn, to keep his workload in check. Projection: 90 more innings.
The Miami Marlins' big three, Trevor Rogers, Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez (SP20, SP36 and SP37 roto, SP18, SP36 and SP29 points): The Marlins have had a difficult time keeping any other starters healthy besides these three, who are on pace for 182 1/3, 209 2/3 and 199 1/3 frames, while no other pitcher in the entire organization is on pace for more than 103 2/3. Rogers stands out, as a 2017 high school draftee who totaled only 237 innings in his first four professional seasons, never exceeding 136 1/3 in a single year. Both he and Lopez, though, are pacing more than 45 innings beyond their 2019 totals. The Marlins are fortunate to have one of the best-paced remaining schedules in the game, and calling a weather-controlled environment their home helps improve the chances it'll remain that way, as the team doesn't have a stretch greater than 13 days without a day off, and only two stretches of greater than 10 days without a day off. Still, the injuries that have hindered this rotation have put these three starters well ahead of pace, and if the Marlins find themselves out of the race, they're probably not going to push their 23-, 25- and 25-year old foundational pieces. Projections: 90, 105 and 95 more innings.
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros (SP27 roto, SP32 points): One could lump Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy, all of them age-27-and-under starters, into this discussion, and the quarter presents their workload-related conundrum. The Astros have already bumped Javier from their rotation to keep his innings in check, doing so two weeks ago when Jake Odorizzi, Framber Valdez and Urquidy returned from the injured list, and they're certain to take a rotational approach to capping all four of their youngest starters. Garcia is under the spotlight because he's on track for a third-on-the-team 156 2/3 innings, 48 more than he had in 2019 and only 60 2/3 shy of his entire pro-career total entering 2021. When McCullers returns, Garcia almost assuredly will be the pitcher bumped from the rotation, and you can count on similar shuffling for the whole group. As is, the Astros have a pair of 17-day stretches without a day off remaining, and as a centrally located team in the American League West division, their remaining schedule involves quite a bit of travel. Projection: 70 more innings.
Aaron Civale, Cleveland Indians (SP24 roto, SP24 points): He's on pace for a third-most-in-baseball 219 2/3 innings, nearly 90 more than he had in 2019 and 55 more than his previous professional high (164 2/3, 2017), as Cleveland has also struggled with injuries to its rotation. This is a team, too, that has a pair of 17-game stretches without a day off, and four spans of 12 days without a day off. Civale's team is a contender, but if that changes in the coming months, he could face a swift, premature end to his season. Projection: 105 more innings.
Lesser fantasy names in this class: Casey Mize, whom the Detroit Tigers have already said they'd use in a piggyback arrangement later in the year. Ryan Weathers, a 21-year-old, 2018 high school draftee who had only 114 1/3 professional innings on his résumé entering 2021. Adbert Alzolay, who hasn't thrown more than 81 2/3 innings in a professional season since 2017. Freddy Peralta, whose Milwaukee Brewers are as apt as anyone to use sixth or spot starters and surely don't want him throwing 28 2/3 more innings than his previous pro high, as is his current pace.
Expect some headaches
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox (SP15 roto, SP15 points): You've probably already noticed the White Sox taking it easy with him, after he was limited to a combined 42 1/3 innings in 2019-20 due to Tommy John surgery, as he has only twice all year worked on four days' rest and five times worked on either seven or eight days' rest. The White Sox have three remaining stretches of 13 games without a day off, and Michael Kopech readily available as a spot starter, so Rodon seems highly likely to remain on his current 158 1/3-inning pace. Projection: 95 more innings.
New York Yankees starters Jameson Taillon and Domingo German (SP131 and SP40 roto, SP106 and SP48 points): First off, the Yankees have one of the better-paced remaining schedules, with 16 days off and only three stretches of 10 days without a day off, only one of them longer than 13 straight. Still, Taillon's and German's 2020 absences, for injury and suspension, has their workloads under greater scrutiny despite their 29 and 28 years of age. While it might seem today, with Corey Kluber on the injured list, that neither pitcher faces any sort of innings cap, you can be sure that the Yankees have their workloads in mind, especially with designs on pitching deep into the postseason where they'll need both pitchers contributing as starters. Projections: 80 and 95 more innings.
Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves (SP63 roto, SP53 points): He's on pace for a reasonable 163 innings, but keep in mind that the Braves surely also have designs on a deep postseason run, needing to save some of Anderson's frames for it. He did pitch 51 innings between the regular season and postseason in 2020, after 135 2/3 in the minors in 2019, so perhaps he won't be reined in that much. Projection: 105 more innings.
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays: (SP8 roto, SP3 points): Incredibly, he's on pace for 216 innings, 60 2/3 more than his previous professional best and 153 more than he threw in all of 2019. But here's the problem with Glasnow's pace: No Rays pitcher has amassed more than 195 innings in a season since Chris Archer (2015-17), the team has a lot of spot-starter candidates, not to mention invented the opener, and it has three 13-day stretches remaining without a day off. There's a good chance the team will dial back his workload a bit at some point. Projection: 110 more innings.
Other pitchers of concern: Eduardo Rodriguez, who missed the entirety of the 2020 season while on the injured list. Triston McKenzie, who has only once as a pro pitched as many as 100 innings in a season. Dane Dunning, whose workload the Texas Rangers were already closely monitoring after he had 2019 Tommy John surgery. Shohei Ohtani, who entered 2021 having thrown only 53 1/3 frames in the U.S.