There are 25 catchers rostered in more ESPN standard fantasy baseball leagues than Baltimore Orioles super prospect Adley Rutschman, who is at 5.1% -- even though he appears to have a rather slim chance of making his big-league debut in 2021. Sure, some of those ESPN leagues are dynasty versions and that may explain how he is on more rosters than Victor Caratini, Max Stassi and Ryan Jeffers, among others on our most-added list. Still, it seems unlikely that the Orioles will push Rutschman this summer, regardless of what he hits for Double-A Bowie.
For the record, Rutschman is hitting quite nicely, having smacked his seventh and eighth home runs this past weekend. He boasts as many walks as strikeouts through 29 games. Rutschman, 23, likely moves up to Triple-A Norfolk this summer (perhaps any day now), but Baltimore is wallowing -- predictably -- in last place in the AL East, with no reason to move their organizational centerpiece too quickly, even if he looks to be ready. If the Orioles were contenders, then it would be a different story. Be aware, fantasy managers!
It does seem rather likely that Rutschman, the No. 1 amateur pick in the 2019 draft, is going to be special and perhaps fantasy managers get to see some excellent big-league statistics from him by this time next season. A switch-hitter with power and excellent plate discipline, Rutschman is already a dynasty favorite, though with the caveat that catchers, in general, do not play nearly as much as most regular hitters and become more prone to injury. Nevertheless, the ceiling here is for him to be the best statistical backstop.
Then again, fantasy managers do not get points for having the best at a particular position. I predict the Orioles will promote him next April, a few weeks into the season (hint, hint). Therefore, I'll probably rank Rutschman among the top-five options at the position, especially in points formats. It speaks to his intriguing skills, as well as the state of the position, really. Tristan H. Cockcroft already ranks Rutschman in his top 100 for dynasty formats, and second among catchers. That's eminently fair.
The clear catch at catcher
Still, Rutschman is about it for my interest in catching prospects for fantasy baseball. San Francisco Giants C Joey Bart has the defensive chops, but may be just an average hitter, even though he is currently raking at Triple-A Sacramento, also with an OPS better than 1.000. Nobody of consequence blocks Rutschman in Baltimore. In San Francisco, Buster Posey boasts arguably the best statistics of any big-league catcher so far, and the organizational icon is not leaving anytime soon. Posey blocks Bart, unless the future Hall of Famer gets hurt.
Most relevant catching prospects seem rather far away -- and way farther than Rutschman -- to reaching the majors, though perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays, getting little offense from the position in the majors, do push Gabriel Moreno. He is at Double-A New Hampshire and boasts his own 1.000 OPS. It's a theme, apparently. The Seattle Mariners could give Cal Raleigh a look later this season, but it would likely be in September. Catching in the majors is hard, and teams play it cautiously with prospects. There is much to learn.
In general, I advise fantasy managers to avoid falling in love with catching prospects and invest in surer things, generally shortstops and outfielders. There is such a learning curve for the catching position, and the primary function is to focus on defense. Sure, established veterans such as J.T. Realmuto, Perez and Posey may struggle to stay healthy because years of playing this difficult position, ahem, catches up to them. Yes, Rutschman and Bart are considerably younger, but it doesn't take much physically to derail a catcher at the plate -- even the young, promising ones.
Keeping the faith
Fantasy managers burned by Mariners OF Jarred Kelenic and Kansas City Royals RHP Jackson Kowar may be wondering why we discuss prospects at all. Kelenic hit .096, and was hitless in his final 39 at-bats before the organization mercifully sent him back to Triple-A Tacoma. Kowar created a buzz for his promotion by dominating at Triple-A Omaha, and then could not escape the first inning in his Monday debut against the Los Angeles Angels. He looked nervous, and threw three wild pitches!
Well, nothing has changed for me in terms of how I view Kelenic. I still believe he will be among the better hitting outfielders soon, and is worthy of much attention in fantasy baseball. Drop him in redraft formats because he is not helping you today, and who knows when he will, but do not alter your overall thinking. It was still only three weeks of activity, and a cruel .109 BABIP did not help. Remember, Mike Trout hit just .220 with a .671 OPS over 135 plate appearances when he debuted in 2011. Do not worry about Kelenic.
With Kowar, nothing that occurred Monday sways me from believing he will be a successful major leaguer, though let us not compare him, generally, to Kelenic. To start with, Kowar is not a top-five pitching prospect. There is some concern about him relying too much on his fastball/changeup combination and needing to work on his curveball in order to remain an effective starter. In any event, one wild and rough inning in Anaheim should alter nothing in the bigger picture.
Put simply, if you roster higher-end prospects such as Tampa Bay Rays infielders Wander Franco and Vidal Brujan or pitchers such as San Diego Padres lefty MacKenzie Gore and Detroit Tigers righty Matt Manning, nothing that happened with Kelenic and Kowar changes their trajectory or expectations. One prospect's success or failure hardly predicts that of another. Pittsburgh Pirates 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes hits. Nothing is wrong with Miami Marlins LHP Trevor Rogers or Tigers RHP Casey Mize. All these fellows are different. Most prospects struggle initially in the majors, but keep the faith -- and your interest.