There was a time, not so long ago, that many of us worried whether or not Cincinnati Reds OF Jesse Winker would hit for enough power to entice fantasy baseball managers. The year 2018 comes to mind, a season where he hit only seven home runs over 334 plate appearances. Oh, he hit for average -- and took his walks, too -- but there was not much power. We also recall when Winker batted 795 times across two Triple-A seasons and hit a mere five home runs. Just five home runs in 191 games!
Well, we can stop worrying about Winker's power potential, as his weekend assault on St. Louis Cardinals pitching has him just one home run behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the big-league lead. He's now on pace for 48 blasts. Winker launched a trio of home runs on Sunday, the second time in three weeks he achieved this feat. He also enters this week second in baseball to teammate Nick Castellanos with a .350 batting average. That's not a great shock based on his history and plate discipline, but the home runs sure are.
I remember talking to Winker at the 2014 Futures Game in Minneapolis, when he was playing in the Double-A Southern League and looking like a relevant option for dynasty league managers. I wrote about him and his love of the Buffalo Bills and fantasy football. Back then, one could see a sweet swing producing meaningful batting average and relevant power. However, his power output has been inconsistent in the majors. Well, it seems to be inconsistent no more.
Nothing terribly interesting, whether regarding his game-winning homer off Alex Reyes or his views on Bills quarterback Josh Allen, came from Winker's postgame interview on Sunday, at least for our purposes. However, I did find a quote from that day's starting pitcher, Wade Miley, summarizing things about Winker quite well. "The man gets his 'A' swing off a lot and does a lot of damage," Miley said. I think that is a wonderful characterization. We should all be so lucky to feature our "A" swing more often.
Perfecting the swing
For example, we talk so much about pitchers repeating their delivery, but we rarely speak of hitters in the same way. From watching Reds games I see infielder Eugenio Suarez struggling with an inconsistent swing -- and it shows in his paltry numbers. Something is clearly amiss with him. Winker, versus right-handers at the least, seems to have perfected his swing and approach, and what interests me is how he has traded walks for situations in which he can drive a baseball very far indeed.
Winker has a similar fly-ball rate to his 2018 season, when everyone complained about the lack of power, only now with higher launch angle and velocity. Last season, Winker walked and struck out (for him) a ton. He always knew which pitches to swing at and which ones to avoid, but he is far more aggressive now. In fact, Winker is not among the leaders in walks at all, but he is way up there in barrels and hard-hit percentage. That's a nice tradeoff, sir. Sure, 100 walks would be great in points leagues, but 48 home runs is going to work better in every league.
Some may view Winker as a player to trade away in fantasy baseball, since he has already reached a career-high in home runs and there are a few factors of concern, in particular a .371 BABIP and his .667 OPS versus lefties. Then again, right-handed pitchers have no answers here and few seem pending. Reasonably expecting 40-plus home runs for Jesse Winker is actually a thing now. I see no need to worry.
Other sluggers in the news
Chicago Cubs 1B Patrick Wisdom is all the rage today after smacking seven home runs in his first two weeks with the club, including two on Sunday. It is not so shocking, since Wisdom slugged 31 home runs for Triple-A Nashville in 2019 and for Triple-A Memphis in 2017. The journeyman boasts power, but also a lot of swing-and-miss in his approach, along with a low batting average ceiling. I suspect the club will yearn for Matt Duffy in a few weeks and fantasy managers will move on by then as well.
Detroit Tigers 1B/2B Jonathan Schoop is the far better fantasy option both in this and future weeks. Schoop is hitting .257 with his typical power -- and a modest batting average, one we can trust is reasonable for him. Schoop has a pair of multi-homer games in the past week, and he averaged 25 home runs from 2016-2019. You know what you are getting, and it is fine.
Los Angeles Angels OF Justin Upton has homered in three of the past four games, and he has seven RBI and six walks in that span, mostly as the leadoff man. It makes sense that fantasy managers would add him to their teams because anyone producing as a leadoff option ahead of Shohei Ohtani warrants a look. Upton, now 33, is mainly torching left-handed pitching and the Angels may face a few this week (Kris Bubic, Caleb Smith). In other words, enjoy!
New York Mets C James McCann entered June with a .588 OPS and disinterest from fantasy leagues. He has since homered three times and knocked in nine runs. Again, McCann is doing next to nothing against right-handed pitching (note that .596 OPS) so I would utilize him mainly in daily formats against lefties, and nothing else. Tigers C Eric Haase (also right-handed) plays far less than McCann but has five home runs in June, including a pair off Chicago White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito. Haase is the better fantasy addition because he offers power and makes far fewer outs.
New York Yankees OF Miguel Andujar hit a few solo home runs last week and showed up on ESPN's most-added list, but you do not want a part of this in fantasy. I cannot believe the Yankees still play him. Andujar has 85 plate appearances this season -- and 85 at-bats. Yep, nary a walk! That's hard to do! It is a John Blutarsky walk rate, zero point zero. Kansas City Royals IF Hanser Alberto and Minnesota Twins C Willians Astudillo actually boast more PA with their own goose eggs in the walk column. This is fascinating. These fellows may end up on "double secret probation" soon!
Of course, Andujar, Alberto and Astudillo -- the three "As" of being allergic to walks -- are hardly fantasy stars. Cardinals OF Tyler O'Neill may end up on that star path, but he won't do it with a 2.6 walk percentage and a 34.2 strikeout percentage. No sir. O'Neill is hitting .278 with 13 home runs, and I am skeptical he can continue any success drawing barely one walk per month. Royals C Salvador Perez, however, has proven it's at least possible to somewhat succeed that way.