The San Diego Padres sure seem like legitimate World Series contenders and no big-league team boasts a better ERA. However, two members of their starting rotation continue to frustrate fantasy baseball managers. Left-hander Blake Snell won the AL Cy Young award following the 2018 season, winning 21 games with a 1.89 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP. He struck out many hitters. Right-hander Dinelson Lamet finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2020, armed with a 2.09 ERA, an 0.85 WHIP and many strikeouts. We loved these fellows in fantasy. Today, they are both simply overrated, rostered in too many leagues.
Snell has yet to miss a turn in the Padres rotation, but somehow he fails to qualify for the ERA title because he still lacks enough innings, averaging barely four frames per outing. His 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP are doing irreparable damage to fantasy rosters, even though he is among the top-25 hurlers in strikeouts. Lamet is not exactly pitching poorly, but he really is not pitching enough, as the Padres, worried about the torn ligament in his elbow, continue handling him with utmost care. Lamet has thrown a total of 14 innings this entire season, retiring no more than nine hitters in any of his six outings.
Fantasy managers continue to roster both Snell and Lamet because of their names. They expect them to pitch much better in the former case, and much more often in the latter case. Still, as each prepares to start this week (Lamet at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, Snell versus the New York Mets this weekend), we lack any real evidence that statistical change is pending. Meanwhile, the Padres continue their winning ways and top prospect MacKenzie Gore ruminates at Triple-A El Paso, though in fairness, his numbers there (currently a 5.94 ERA) hardly warrant a promotion.
More ugly numbers
Snell remains rostered in 94.7% of ESPN standard leagues, though that number is down a bit after his most recent performance, where the Houston Astros pummeled him for seven runs. His ERA was at 3.79 only two weeks ago, but with a 1.46 WHIP and only one victory. The strikeouts are nice, but not at this price. Snell is second to Cleveland RHP Triston McKenzie in walks, but there are other issues. Right-handed batters are slugging .507 against Snell to go along with a .905 OPS.
Some BABIP regression is expected, but at some point, the Padres have to consider using this wildly inefficient pitcher in relief mainly versus left-handed bats. Remove the career year with the Tampa Bay Rays and Snell has a 4.05 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP in five other seasons. Thanks to a combination of inefficiency and injury, he has won more than six games in a season only once -- and there is no reason to expect 2021 be any different.
Lamet is rostered in 81.9% of ESPN standard leagues, despite not throwing more than 64 pitches in any outing. The Padres are being extra cautious -- and hey, it is their organization and they can handle it how they please -- but Lamet cannot win games that way, nor can he make much impact in ERA, WHIP or strikeouts. His lone win came in relief. One presumes that Lamet is building up to a higher workload, perhaps even soon. Then again, it is June. How long can you wait? Did you miss adding Toronto Blue Jays rookie Alek Manoah because you would not part with Lamet in order to get him?
The preseason value for top-20 hurlers Snell and Lamet hardly correlates with current value, though I do realize typing those words makes it likely that things will change right away. I doubt this jinxes them, though. The Padres have lost 22 games, with nearly one-third of those coming just in Snell's starts. They have won the past four times Lamet started, but the bullpen is on call for early assistance in those games from the get-go.
There are several ways for a fantasy manager to fix a rough ERA/WHIP. One is to simply hope that the offenders fix their numbers (as Chicago Cubs RHP Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies are doing). Another is to drop said offenders and make their ERA damage stop. In the case of these two Padres, tough as it may seem, I would move on.
Other overrated options
Here are other pitchers that were popular on draft day (or in the time since) that I also view as being overrated for fantasy purposes. That hardly means there is no value there. Snell is providing strikeouts. I have a fantasy team that is way behind in ERA/WHIP and, frankly, Snell would fit perfectly on that squad by helping me in whiffs at no cost to those likely sunk-cost categories. Still, that is not exactly normal value. These following fellows may not be what you think they are either.
Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics (75% rostered): Montas was terrific in 2019, going 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA over 16 starts before testing positive for a PED and earning himself an 80-game suspension. As with Snell, if we remove that one season of "glory" we see a very different fellow -- one with a career 4.94 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. It is time to expect numbers like those, not the 2019 ones. I almost placed his left-handed teammate Jesus Luzardo on this list, but he looked great on Tuesday and I think he can turn things around.
Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox (63.9%): His 1.99 ERA one short season ago got future investors mighty excited, but it came with such a low strikeout rate that more than a few relief pitchers had a higher whiff total. Predictably, the hittable lefty is giving up more hits and homers this season and, alas, his ERA is a deserved 4.53. Stop waiting for it to improve. One cannot thrive anymore on a 4.5 K/9.
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals (55.9%): This one hurts because Corbin looked to be rejuvenated this spring, with his velocity back up and slider sharp. I totally bought in, assuming his 2020 campaign was aberrant. It does not look that way today. Corbin has a 6.23 ERA and a 5.55 FIP. His trademark slider is no longer effective. It turns out that Corbin was not a bargain slipping outside the top-30 starters.
Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels (52.4%): We thought that escaping the Baltimore Orioles organization fixed him when he spun a 3.29 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in his first season with the Angels. We ignored his Orioles history this spring, and now, as he permits a barrel rate twice as high as in 2020, he is delivering his old Orioles numbers, including a major home run problem.
David Price, Los Angeles Dodgers (23.1%): On the other side of town, we have an accomplished left-hander returning from injury, but handling a role similar to that of Lamet. Price has made only three starts and retired no more than eight hitters in any of his 12 outings. I can see a path to relevance here, but I can also see the Dodgers "Lamet-ing" him for a few more months to try and optimize his effectiveness.
Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks (47.9%): The seven-inning "no-hitter that did not count as a real no-hitter" brought fantasy managers back in his direction. Then he pitched well for a few weeks, albeit in a home game versus the Rockies and twice against Miami. Now his ERA is back up to 5.15, as he struggles with home runs and free passes. It may keep rising.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (32.6%): What are you doing here, folks? Yes, Arrieta opened the season with a few nice outings against the Pirates. C'mon! His fastball velocity is at a career low. He does not miss bats. He struggles against left-handed hitters. His FIP is 5.16, and he deserves it. Run away!
Not on this list ... at least not yet: Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins; Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds; Max Fried, Atlanta Braves; Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees.