The loss of Mike Trout for the next 6-8 weeks was a devastating blow to his fantasy teams, and his managers surely are now on the search for an impact outfielder to add to cover his spot for the next two months. Trout's injury being the big story of the week, Eric Karabell also provided several recommendations for players to add to fill his shoes, and I'll add my thoughts on the most widely-hoped-for outfield replacement.
First, my top Trout-replacement recommendation: Flash back to the top pickup from my May 10 column, Willie Calhoun, who has since then added outfield eligibility. Calhoun has hit two home runs in his past five games and has been slotted in the leadoff role in five of the Texas Rangers' past six contests.
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels: To be clear, he has not yet been summoned by the Angels as Trout's roster replacement, as the team promoted left-handed reliever Jose Quijada in a corresponding transaction. Considering the team is now down to 11 active hitters on the roster, only four of them listed outfielders (and one is their regular first baseman, Jared Walsh), there's a good chance this team will summon someone in the coming hours, if not make a trade for outfield help à la the New York Mets' pickup of Cameron Maybin on Tuesday. Adell is the Angels' most logical option, a power/speed type who provides the highest-ceiling amount of impact. Considering this team is sliding in the American League West race, now seven games out of first place and five games beneath .500, it's a chance they might well take.
Yes, Adell struggled through an awful rookie season in 2020, batting only .161, hitting only three home runs in 132 trips to the plate and striking out in 41.7% of them. Still, he has four homers and two stolen bases in 12 games for Triple-A Salt Lake thus far, bringing his minor league stat line to 32 steals in 37 career tries, after he batted .250/.423/.600 with two home runs in 26 trips to the plate while converting his lone stolen base chance during spring training. There's little doubt that he packs a powerful swing with elite, often-underrated speed in his tool belt, but fantasy managers need brace for probable peaks and valleys with a swing-and-miss prospect like this. Still, a 20/12 projection isn't outrageous if he's promoted in the coming days.
Here's one more player you should be adding now, even in mixed leagues:
Hansel Robles, RP, Minnesota Twins: The Twins' 2021 returns to date are completely perplexing, and as Wednesday dawns, they're only percentage points ahead of the Colorado Rockies for the worst record in baseball. A 5.13 team bullpen ERA -- that's fourth-worst in the majors -- has a lot to do with it, and the team just can't seem to get anything done in the late innings, as it has lost all seven of its extra-inning games and has watched its top two closer candidates, Alex Colome and Taylor Rogers, go 4-of-9 converting their save chances. I stand by my impression that the Twins feel like a snake-bitten team, and that much better things lie ahead for them, but until either Colome or Rogers gets straightened out, Robles is in position to capture the ninth-inning role for the foreseeable future.
Here's what stands out: Robles has a 0.93 ERA in his past nine appearances, and in his past three he has made the wise move to shelve his so-so slider, focusing entirely on his four-seam fastball and splitter. The former has seen an uptick in velocity, averaging at least 96.8 mph in each of those past three outings, which rivals any of the highest during his entire career, and in his past four appearances he has struck out 9-of-15 batters faced with a total of 18 swinging strikes. This could be a short term blip -- and any instinctual reaction should be that it is -- but in a season where closer roles across the league are more fluid and saves as a category more difficult to fill, it's fair to chase even a week's worth of such trends. Just don't do it at any extreme cost as far as corresponding drop.
Finally, it's time to cash in the following chip -- see if you can sell high on him now.
Alex Reyes, RP, St. Louis Cardinals: He has been excellent through 26% of his team's schedule, the No. 2 relief pitcher and No. 30 overall name on the Player Rater to date. Reyes has continued to minimize hard contact, and he has leaned more heavily on his excellent slider, which Statcast has measured thus far as the No. 1 slider in baseball using Run Value (minus-8), and which has generated a whiff 56% of the time opposing hitters have swung at it. That's no shock, as the right-hander has always been touted for his impressive raw stuff.
The problems here are twofold: The many statistical warning signs in Reyes' year-to-date stat line, as well as his checkered injury history. He has a whopping 21.5% walk rate, the highest in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 appearances, and a 96.4% left-on-base rate, second-highest among that same qualification group, and Statcast's expected ERA metric (3.62) says that he hasn't really pitched any more effectively than he did in 2020 (3.53). Reyes also finds himself on pace for 77 appearances and 85 innings pitched, the former 51 more than he has ever pitched in his professional career and the latter his most since 2015 and, in fact, 24 1/3 frames shy of his single-year pro best of 109 1/3, when he was a starter in Class A ball. Injuries held him to a combined 15 starts, 21 relief appearances and 87 innings from 2017-20 combined.
We're at that stage of season where players with as wide gaps between their preseason projections and year-to-date returns as Reyes' become extreme debate points -- and I'm talking precisely about formulating rational going-forward projections when I say that -- and since he has provided elite returns at a position where it has been tough to find them, he's probably perceived to be way more valuable than the reality. I've got Reyes graded a borderline top-15 fantasy closer -- remember, some of the pitchers ahead of him in my rankings are there for middle-relief/ratios purposes -- but I expect he'd fetch clear top-10 closer value on the trade market in some leagues, and I do see a path to him failing to even rate a top-25 fantasy closer from today forward, either because the Cardinals will need to rein in his workload or due to untimely injury if they don't.