While fantasy baseball managers did not make Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout the No. 1 player in ESPN average live drafts this season, he sure did not miss by much. Still, Trout started off hot, hitting .333 with eight home runs and his absence for the next 6-8 weeks due to a right calf strain is a very big deal -- for both the Angels and fantasy rosters. The likes of Juan Lagares cannot adequately replace him.
Still, this is the task as Trout likely will sit out until the mid-July All-Star break. The Angels can utilize the defensive-minded Lagares in center field, or move Taylor Ward and his .179 batting average there. Ward was already handling regular duties in right field after the release of Albert Pujols. Jose Rojas may play more. The Angels figure to rely on veteran Scott Schebler, who hit 30 home runs for the 2017 Cincinnati Reds but has since managed only 19 big-league blasts. He boasts a 1.228 OPS for the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees and can handle center field.
Who else could replace Trout for the Angels? Well, yes, fantasy managers love prospect Jo Adell, but it would be surprising if he gets the promotion so soon, especially after manager Joe Maddon told reporters in spring training that he needed minor league at-bats. Adell sure looked overmatched in 2020, hitting just .161 with a 41.7% strikeout rate over 132 PA. He is currently faring only a tad bit better for the Bees, batting .191 with four home runs and 21 strikeouts in 47 PA. Sure, seven of his nine hits have gone for extra bases, but he is not making much contact otherwise. Brandon Marsh should get the call sooner, but he just started playing at Triple-A after recovering from a shoulder injury.
Fishing for replacements
Fantasy managers can do better, but so many outfielders have hit the injured list in recent days (Tyler O'Neill, Aaron Hicks, AJ Pollock, so many New York Mets) that the list of available options may have dwindled. Jarred Kelenic, Tyler Naquin and Adolis Garcia have all recently surpassed the 50% rostered mark in ESPN standard leagues. Regardless, let us go over some of the top outfielders from the most-added list -- and others that should be on it -- who available in more than half of ESPN leagues.
Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals: He has been healthy for three weeks and hitting better than ever over this small sample, showing both power and plate discipline. Bader tends to struggle versus right-handed pitching, but we should be intrigued to see if he can alter his career-long narrative.
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox: The highly-touted No. 3 pick from the 2019 amateur draft has hit his first two big-league home runs in the past week, though he is doing most of his offensive damage against left-handed pitching. Better times are ahead, but perhaps not in the next two months.
Adam Duvall, Miami Marlins: His power is not in question, as he has 24 blasts since the start of 2020 -- only one fewer than Mr. Trout himself. Alas, Duvall does not help fantasy teams in terms of batting average and he has more home runs than walks in each of the past three seasons. That's hard to do! Hunter Renfroe of the Boston Red Sox is the AL's version with this skill set.
Matt Beaty, Los Angeles Dodgers: Someone needs to fill the Dodgers lineup with so many players on the injured list, and Beaty is a platoon bat with modest pop versus right-handed pitching. He had a seven-RBI game in Milwaukee earlier in May.
Avisail Garcia, Milwaukee Brewers: He homered 20 times for the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays and is capable of a repeat, but the return of Christian Yelich to the lineup may affect his playing time. Teammate Lorenzo Cain is also available, and seems to be a better (but not awesome) choice.
Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks: Somewhat similarly, the pending return of Ketel Marte should cost Smith plate appearances. Smith hardly looks overmatched this season, but he also seems unlikely to challenge for 20 home runs if he were to play regularly.
Joc Pederson, Chicago Cubs: Power was not in question when he blasted 36 home runs in 2019, but he has managed only one longball thus far in 2021. Plus, he should be sitting versus left-handed pitching. It seems odd that he is on our most-added list. I would prefer to take a chance on Cleveland's Josh Naylor.
Austin Slater, San Francisco Giants: The combination of four home runs and six stolen bases gets one noticed, but Slater is struggling to make contact and no longer playing regularly.
Amed Rosario, Cleveland: He figures to play regularly at shortstop with Andres Gimenez having been demoted to Triple-A, but Rosario -- eligible in the outfield -- looks even worse statistically than he did for the 2020 Mets, which is saying something. Keep those expectations in check.
Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins: Arraez boasts five career home runs over roughly one full season of playing time over his three-year career, but he also has a .319 batting average -- so if you want to protect that statistic, go for it. Colorado Rockies rookie Yonathan Daza similarly provides batting average and lacks power, but he cannot keep up that .416 BABIP for long, even in Denver.
Trout headed downstream?
One final note on Trout, who should return for the final 10 weeks of the season and produce the four-category numbers we all expect. Yes, four categories. Trout fell from the top spot in many roto fantasy drafts in part because he stole only one base in two attempts last season -- a long way from his 30-steal days. We all appreciate him leading the sport in OPS, but in roto leagues, steals still matter.
Now we have another reasonable concern as this will be the fourth consecutive full season (take 2020 out of the mix) where Trout will fail to play in more than 140 games. He averaged 129 games played from 2017-19, succumbing to thumb, wrist and foot injuries, and will now not play in even that many games this season.
Nobody seems to want to say it out loud, because the batting skills remain fantastic, but Trout deserves to fall from first-round fantasy range in 2022.